Just t start throwing some ideas and stimulate discussion: The first step could be picturing broad potential scenarios (two extremes being the pandemia is supressed/contained within the following 2-3 months, very optimistic, and within 2-3 years, pesimistic view?). Then, within these two-three contrasting scenarios, One could think in terms of sequential, hierarchical hypotheses, starting from what are the immediate, direct impacts (A), and then what the succesive consequences (B, C ...) could be involving pest (arthropods, plant pathogens, weeds) research and management.

There coud be other complementary approaches. Ideas are welcome.

https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/mitigating-covid-19-impacts-on-food-and-agriculture-1585932264

This might be informative also, Dr. Eduardo V. Trumper

Crop protection and fertiliser players have not seen much impact during COVID 19 as the lockdown period coincides with a seasonally soft period. Moreover due to lack of free movement of the labour force which in turn responsible for application of fertilizer and pesticide in the agricultural fields is lacking.

Thank you very much Dr. Md. Harun-Or-Rashid and Dr. Prabuddh Kumar Mishra for your inputs. Movement restrictions seem to be the immediate and direct effect. It can be assumed that once mandatory social distancing ends, field labor and trade will go back to "normal", sooner or latter. Now, What about other medium to long term effects? Will consumers change perception and priorities about how agriculture (and crop protection therein) should be done?

I Have just realized that Reasearch Gate automathically tagged this exchange as a discussion on "social distance". This is not correct. The discussion is about the different ways the COVID 19 pandemia could have direct and indirect effects on Agriculture, with particular focus on crop protection. Social distance is just one factor that can trigger oher consequences.

The entire world is excited to have a faster and smoother getting back to 'normalcy' from the pandemic Covid-19!!. But, more than any other economic activity, bringing 'agriculture and farming' back to the pre-Covid situation appears to be the most challenging one. Because, as already mentioned in the discussion, the labour availability has been reported to be the most pressing issue in many countries, especially, the agri-dominant economies, for various activities, such as: the routine farming related activities, plant protection, harvesting, processing, marketing and trade. The adverse effects (both short-term and long-term) are yet to be known and need more indepth studies across countries/ agro-ecological regions. Giving an agro-ecological perspective to the research on post-Covid agriculture impacts becomes important, mainly for the reason that climate change impacts have already been reported to be significantly causing untold miseries for farmers and farming activities, alike. Quite unfortunately, many of the agriculture dominant economies are already reeling under severe crisis due to the declining agri-commodity prices in the recent years. Such decline in the primary commodity prices have already resulted in farmers abandoning agro-management practices, including plant protection measures. The issue become more serious in case of perennial agricultural commodities which require huge initial investments and continued adoption of plant protection and other agro-management practices. Iam attaching a paper on the challenges facing some of the agrarian economies of Asia, the findings of which are also otherwise relevant in this context.

Eduardo V. Trumper... thanks for this important question.

I agree with Dr Viswanathan P K comments.

I believe so. Prabuddh Kumar Mishra.

I foresee major economic effects on agriculture, especially for things concerning import and export of plant products (fruit, vegetables, grains). The slowing down in the distribution of staples (rice, wheat, beans, corn) will affect people's livelihood and food security in vast regions of the world. Countries where agriculture has been shifting towards agroecology may have better chances to secure food because crops diversity is higher and farms resilience is increased.

I agree with you Bruno.....

Sharing some personal exp. During the lock down period, most house holds in Kerala, Southern India started their own farming at whatever little spaces they have including the terraces. Spinach, Brinjal, lady finger (Okra) and some other fast growing varieties were grown and attained self sufficiency for vegetables. We harvested spinach in less than 15 days. So, yes the demand for daily vegetables has gone down, may be not considerably !

Great impact on the agrobusiness is still a challenge due to:

1) Logístics, imports and exports via air & ocean & rodo are very slow.

2) Customers still want to be safe on quality and rastreability of the products.

3) After COVID19 will be a good opportunity for those that take disruptive solutions.

Eduardo V. Trumper

FAO has a webpage that brings information about the possible impacts of COVID-19 on agriculture and food, there are questions and answers about some of the possible impacts. I suggest you visit the website at this link: http://www.fao.org/2019-ncov/q-and-a/en/

FIAN Internacional has recently published a report, which includes some impacts of the pandemic on agriculture, but the main focus is the impact of the crisis on human food and nutrition: https://www.fian.org/files/files/Preliminary_monitoring_report_ -_Impact_of_COVID19_on_the_HRtFN.pdf

Thank you, Bruno Borsari . In other words, you claim that there will be a renewed thrust to developing and deepeing of agroecology around the world as a consequence of the pandemia. This would be very welcome, as the world obviously needs to really go for a truly sustainable agriculture. Nonetheless, I wonder if the pandemia shock will help persuade people who is locked-in in an industrial way of thinking agriculture. Will long-term planning prevail over short-term? My concern is that even with shocks like the COVID 19 pandemia, people and institutions still do not see the need for a change of paradigm.

Dear Leovigildo Aparecido Costa Santos , Thank you for sharing the FAO link, which offers useful information. I think that the short time impacts are easier to identify than the medium to long term ones. In that web page, I think FAO is focusing ongoing effects and potential consequences for the following weeks to a few months. The second link you shared does include this view. Thank you.

Thanks Angelo Roberto Biasi . You say that " After COVID19 will be a good opportunity for those that take disruptive solutions." Could you please provide us with more detail about "disruptive solutions"? What do you mean?

In what way do you think this could happen?

Thanks!

Eduardo V. Trumper

I believe that changes will take place towards more sustainable agriculture, with greater diversification and conservation practices, but only at the local level and for small-scale production.

An example was the 2008 food crisis, as a way of coping with the impacts arising at the time, it was expected that developing countries would pay more attention (political and financial) to alternative agricultural systems, cheaper for food production and focused on supply local and regional. However, what seems to have happened was the strengthening (political and financial) of the agrifood system in force at the time, with large-scale expansion of monocultures, high load of chemical inputs, heavy (and expensive) machinery and greater control of the global market by large corporations. In other words, a strengthening of the system that was one of the main causes of the crisis.

I believe that most developing countries will use this same logic as before to try to overcome the current crisis resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. In poor and developing countries, there will be no major changes, such as a substantial increase in the political and economic incentive for sustainable agricultural systems, such as agroecological and organic ones. Several measures will be proposed and put in place to recover and strengthen large commodity farmers for export and to support companies that produce and supply the necessary inputs for this practice. Instead of trying to make profound changes in the agrifood system, they will try to fix specific errors and break socioeconomic impediments to increase large-scale production, with some sustainable adaptations.

Certainly consumers will change part of the demand, mainly for the consumption of healthier products and production less impacting on nature, a movement that already has some expressiveness and is growing in several countries, mainly in developed countries. However, will the poor be entitled to these same choices?

In Latin America, for example, a significant percentage of the poor and extremely poor live in rural areas, precisely where wealth is generated in several countries through agricultural production. In urban areas, where so many other poor people live, there has been a significant increase in the consumption of processed and ultra-processed foods in recent years, they are cheap but unhealthy foods that we get used to eating.

Dear Leovigildo Aparecido Costa Santos , Your comments are very welcome. The view you are sharing is pessimistic. I have the same feeling. Some local colleagues who I am talking to about this subject, like to think that the pandemia will draw greater attention to agroecological perspectives. Perhaps there will be opposing vectors, some of them supporting a deepening of the present hegemony of an industrial agriculture, some others claiming for a change of paradigm. These different vectors woud have different sources, as you said. Consumers and society in general may become a strong voice, but only if organized. Political and financial support to stus quo is more likely to occur, particularly when strong lobbies are in place.

One of the main effects here in Pakistan because of corona pandemic is the high prices of cereal particularly wheat, because there is no inter district transportation of grain or very less transportation. Which affected the common people here. the unemployment due to shut down is causing hardship for the poor people/laborers and cannot afford to purchase food items they required.

Dear Eduardo V. Trumper.

We are now facing challenges in terms of logistical bottlenecks and there is probably less food being produced. In May probably will be disruptions in food supply chains, such as restrictions on the movement of truckers, cabotage and air transportation, we have already felt the effects of COVID19.

The shortage of fertilizers, veterinary medicines and other inputs can affect agricultural production for sure.

A disruptive option will be the possibility for small farmers and family members to produce organic products for their subsistence and with high added value. They may benefit from the ILP project (Integration of crop and livestock) in rotation or consortium of products to be planted and consumed by the animals of their creation.

ILP also contributes to less diffusion of carbon gas, which is why all consumers prefer this type of product with environmental appeal even.

Small producers can still deliver their products to customers who will order them through the producer's website without having to move around to pick up their purchase.

Whole world is facing challenge of COVID19. Besides, health and sanitation, there is long lasting affect on agriculture and dairy sector. Take a case of Indian dairy sector, the production of milk is expected to decrease due to non availability of various inputs especially feed, fodder and labour. The supply of concentrated feed has decreased by 40-50 per cent and, on the other side, its prices has also increased marginally. on the other hand, the reduction in demand for milk is the major factor of economic losses to the Indian dairy sector. It is quite understandable that demand for milk has reduced due to closing down of sweat shops, hotels/dhabas, creameries churning milk at smaller level and tea shops round the corner. Hence, there is an economic loss (both on supply side due to higher prices of inputs and demand side lower prices of milk as a result of decrease in demand) to the dairy farmers. The total losses to the milk producers have been mitigated to some extent of due to benefits accruing to the consumers due to decrease in prices of milk. Overall, total surplus will be negative, as decrease in producer surplus is much more stronger than increase in consumer surplus.

Production of cash crop should limited and increase area of cereal crops because world has been move vegetarian more demand of gain due to COVID19

Angelo Roberto Biasi , You said that "A disruptive option will be the possibility for small farmers and family members to produce organic products for their subsistence and with high added value. They may benefit from the ILP project (Integration of crop and livestock) in rotation or consortium of products to be planted and consumed by the animals of their creation". I guess you are referring to short term effects. I wonder if this could create momentum, a thrust for small scale production to consolidate at a longer term.

Dear Dharmesh KA Davara . Thank you for your comment. Do you think the effect you are foreseeing will last for long? Or Do you think the "system" is resilient and will soon go back to "normal" demand of plant versus meat?

Dear Eduardo, I believe as you mentioned: This could create momentum, a thrust for small scale production to consolidate in the longterm.

Yes, it´s true, organic production is getting very appreciated for people that prefer them instead of ones that use fertilizers, pesticides, etc, organic products are carbonless and have value-added.

follow

I would like to make attention to the effect of fertilizers and pesticides is more on soil, but the organic farmers have shown great strength during this period of COVID-19 pandemic. Organic farmers are more stable and sustainable during this pandemic and practices followed in plant protection have shown a good impact on the environment and health of the crops

COVID-19 pandemic is impacting on agricultural production by disrupting regional agriculture. Agricultural economists are concerned about the current implications of COVID-19. Moreover, production could be hampered due to restriction of movement of people and shortage of workers. Impact of COVID-19 on crop protection is related to seasonal lock down when the crops are out of field. For protection of crops, farmers rely on crop protection chemicals, as these play an important role in controlling the pests and diseases that infect or damage crops. But due to lock down, such activities are also hampered due to limitation of workers and transport.

Thank you Munira Nasiruddin for your contribution. Cheers, Eduardo

A good topic to discuss with. You have already brainstormed possible impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural production. When we consider the agricultural production system, we are referring to various components that are linked to each other that if one of them gets impacted by any means, the other would also be affected likewise. Some of the erratic changes that are brought forth by the COVID-19 disruption are restriction of movement, social distancing, curfews and business lockdown which obviously have a negative effect on the agricultural production system. Besides, millions of people have lost their jobs due to this disruption. The restriction itself may have a catastrophic effect on transportation of farm goods from one place to another. Especially, agro-industries such as food processing companies, in addition to losing their employees, face a huge challenge of losing their supply of raw materials from farming companies. I mean things are linked to each other like a chain. For sure, I feel that regulations on health and sanitation would never be the same after the advent of COVID-19 and things would also be different than they were before. It would probably have a lasting effect on the agricultural system. However, organic faming companies are doing well these days. This may be due to the fact that people are shifting their attention to organically produced foods to boost their immune system and stay healthy. In general, one thing is obvious. The future is uncertain! Even if we manage to control COVID-19, it may trigger a change in our lifestyle forever. And this may embark on a shift in research trend in the coming years. I see an opportunity for researchers in different disciplines to come and work together to solve potential problems in the future because this issue requires multi-dimensional collaboration. This may also persuade governments, policy makers, funding agencies and other stakeholders to consider their mandates just as they did for "climate change" agenda.

Agreed with the detailed answer of Mohammad Ahmed. Things are linked like a chain and the whole system will go under drastic changes in near future. I would say a paradigm shift. We have to produce more food crops those would be helpful to improve the immune system of human body. For this purpose, I think we need to go back to natural instead of processed food items. But the questions is, does organic food production will feed the population influx of the world at this time of the century where people are habitual to eat lot of junkfoods to overcome their hunger and people do not have time to cook and eat.

The following are the things we need to focus on:

1. Behavioral change in the eating habits of the people

2. Manual and mental hard work by people to keep fit instead of depend on machines since manual work will be more useful to give new impetus to our body and ultimately we require more protiens based food itmes to eat.

3. More agricultural land and time is required to produce organic food crops.

4. Agricultural Extension system need to be revitalized to meet the demands of post COVID-19 agribusiness.

5. Developed countries must coordinate and help developing countries to solve the COVID-19 post agricultural issues and problems

https://www.ilo.org/sector/Resources/publications/WCMS_742023/lang--en/index.htm

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1111/(ISSN)1744-7976.COVID-19-Canadian-Agriculture-Food

Bita Jamshidi Thank you very much, for sharing the Journal Articles on the Covid Impacts on Candadian Agriculture. Very rich source of information for undertaking similar studies in other agrarian economies. Would request you to initiate a research study on this topic, involving both developing and developed countries.

Dear Bita Jamshidi , Thanks so much for sending us those links. It would be interesting to formally review the perspectives and analyses carried out already or still ongoing in different countries. Just a thought ...

COVOD-19 has little impact on Agriculture. The population in rural area is less affected by COVID-19 than that of Urban area. Most of the population in the villages is concentrating on Crop Protection . As it is human virus has less effect on crop protection. Due to use of pesticides & disinfectant chemicals for crop protection Corona-19 virus would not survive at all.

Article Agroecology and the reconstruction of a post-COVID-19 agriculture

Article The COVID‐19 Pandemic: Anticipating its Effects on Canada's ...

abrazos

Thanks a lot for your contribution Juan Carlos Torrico

Crop Protection in its strict sense means protecting the farmers, especially small farmers, who are the backbone of global agriculture in very many ways. The vagaries of climate, the market uncertainties and pandemic situations, such as Covid are going to seriously impair the future of global agriculture. These are the three major crises that will have tragic effects on global agriculture in the immediate future. Given this, we need carefully driven strategies to protect the farmers by any means. While WTO regulations pose serious questions on protecting the farmers through subsidies and income support measures, it is important that countries worldover, especially, Asian, African and Latin American countries should come up with a comprehensive and collaborative strategy to overcome the triple crisis looming large in global agriculture sector. As Dr Swaminathan, the father of Green Revolution reflects, "The monsoon and the market are the two major determinants of the well-being of the farmer". Hence, it is imperative to streamline agriculture growth and development strategies in the post-Covid 19 context to strengthen and improve the lives and livelihoods of farmers.

Thank you Viswanathan P. Karthiayani for your thoughtful input

There can not be a significant effect on crop protection as such. It was visible during the initial period when there was a complete lockdown and Fertiliser and pesticides shops remained closed. This caused a decrease in pesticides availability to the farmers. But after that during Unlock operations especially in India, the situation became the same. The only thing which has been impacted is that now the labour availability is less. This has increased the labour charges required for the farm operations.