01 January 1970 35 5K Report

With the stock markets in turmoil, one may be overly concerned with the coronavirus or COVID-19.

Mathematics and cybersecurity "laws of trust" can help. Models in news networks forget that mortality rates decrease sharply for new infections, in favor of people's attention -- and that is good!

The new coronavirus is now at least 20 times more deadly than the old, common cold virus (2-15%, depends on age group, 15% for 80 years old, versus 0.1% for the common cold). This is the biggest difference that indicates greater care.

However:

1. Herd effect: The percentage that survives protect those who have not yet been infected, and this acts more and more efficiently. For example, surviving workers protect from transfer to uninfected co-workers. The Internet helps, allowing people to work from the safety of a remote location, even home.

2. Own immune system: The percentage that survives "learn" in their immune system about the new virus, and the mortality rate from reinfection is expected to drop from average 2% to less than 0.1%. One can only be infected once with COVID-19 (re-infection is much less likely)! Infection brings immunity or death, decreasing the number of potential agents.

This thought also protects, creating a positive attitude when facing the problem, which brings the solution itself -- from 2% deadly to just 0.1%.

Meanwhile, mathematics indicates that self-isolation is the best prevention and helps get to 0.1% quicker. There should be a spike of COVID-19 within the northern flu season now, of December (mainly, where it originated: China) to March, but activity can last as late as May (US CDC data), followed by an overall exponential decline to the 0.1% level.

Also, mathematics lead us to consider that the typical flu season in the Southern Hemisphere spans that hemisphere's winter months of May to July, expectedly making COVID-19 deaths to be much less pronounced in the south. Travel to the Southern hemisphere from the North (an ironically inverted migration?) may also be an isolation technique, at least until April-May/2020.

Comments? What is your qualified opinion?

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