Your questions are important as they touch on who we, humans, would like to be. Would we want to continue living as entities, objects, in a technological system, where even at universities personnel departments are called HR departments, human resource departments, where we are considered as inputs to mould students in malls in such a way that they are useful in all kinds of primary processes . You see, I can speak this language rather well, as we basically all can. In this respect I refer to the philosophy of technology, and to the appropriate work of Martin Heidegger . I am an economist by education and a mathematician by profession. I worked in the areas of systems and control and of mathematical finance .

Concerning your question : AI models can certainly help to better understand crises of all kind, but none of these systems is able to understand anything , We, humans , are able to understand, and maybe some animals are also able to understand.

And I am afraid of a world where AI machines really come into power, as the danger is extremely great that they will be used by Big Tech, by people like Elon Musk and by politicians like Trump.

In my view we might have opened another box of Pandora.

So yes, ethical issues are at stake as well, but above all : power, extreme power, and all this could be extremely detrimental for the weak, the poor.

One thing is clear : too much power in the hands of too few is bad, is a danger for the existence of real democracies.

We should not behave like gods. We should take serious the stories collected in the BOOKs, like the Koran, the Torah and the Holy Bible.

Hello,

In response to your question, you might look at my reviews of the following books (see via links):

Dalio’s “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail”

https://www.amazon.com/review/R3GPXYE08K18R5/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8

Sharma’s “The Rise and Fall of Nations: Forces of Change in the Post-Crisis World”

https://www.amazon.com/review/R7WARGYR9POZE/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8

Pursell and Walker’s “Outsmarting AI: Power, Profit, and Leadership in the Age of Machines”

https://www.amazon.com/review/R1VJ2MEC8WWXHA/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8

For fun, I put your question to Google’s AI function Gemini using input from the reviews asking for a brief answer and got the response below:

Based on the provided book reviews, building an AI-driven system to forecast financial and economic crises appears to be a plausible and increasingly explored endeavor. Ray Dalio's work, as described in the review of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order," highlights the potential of integrating "big data and narrative to present repeating historic patterns" through his "Big Cycle" model and its 18 determinants of wealth and power. This framework, though its internal mechanics remain somewhat proprietary, suggests a systematic approach to identifying stages of economic and political cycles that could be leveraged by AI. Similarly, Sharma's "The Rise and Fall of Nations" identifies "10 forces" (like debt, inflation, and trade balances) that drive economic ups and downs, providing further structured data points for an AI to analyze. The review of "Outsmarting AI" directly addresses AI's capabilities in "predictive analytics," "pattern recognition," and processing vast datasets, noting that "AI is where 'Software and hardware put statistics on steroids.'" While the challenges of data integration, model interpretation, and the need for robust governance frameworks are acknowledged, the consensus from these reviews points towards AI's strong potential to analyze complex, multi-faceted data to identify warning signs, uncover intricate patterns, and refine predictions for financial and economic crises, moving beyond traditional, subjective forecasting methods

Anyway, check these sources out and start to use AI to get better answers, but always check to assure that what you are getting back makes sense and gives you some basis to refine and proceed further.

All the best,

Fred

Yes, it is increasingly possible to build AI-driven systems to forecast financial and economic crises. AI models can process vast amounts of data such as credit spreads, interest rates, employment figures, and news sentiment to identify early warning signals that traditional models may overlook (Chen et al., 2024). Central banks and institutions like the IMF are already integrating AI into risk forecasting and stress testing frameworks to better anticipate downturns (IMF, 2023; ECB, 2024).

However, challenges persist. Financial crises are rare and often triggered by unique factors, limiting data availability and model accuracy (BIS, 2025). AI models may also lack transparency, making them harder to trust in regulatory settings.

To address this, explainable AI (XAI) is being adopted to improve interpretability while AI alone cannot prevent crises, it can significantly enhance early warning capabilities when combined with expert oversight (ECB, 2024; Chen et al., 2024).

References

Chen, Y., Wang, T., & Li, H. (2024). AI in Financial Forecasting: A Systematic Review. Journal of Financial Data Science, 6(1), 20–35.

European Central Bank (ECB). (2024). Big Data and AI in Financial Supervision. ECB Discussion Paper Series.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2023). Machine Learning and Systemic Risk. IMF Working Paper WP/23/117.

Bank for International Settlements (BIS). (2025). Artificial Intelligence and Macroprudential Policy. BIS Research Report.