That would be a difference of 28 kcal/mol, which is a lot. Is it really the full binding free energy or just the Coulombic term? What type of mutation?
The electrostatics plays the major role, and this might be problematic with MM/PBSA. Try to confirm the MM/PBSA value with alternative binding free energy methods, such as linear interaction energy or free energy perturbation, which include the solvent effects explicitly.
Also, run several parallel MD simulations and average the results. A spread lower than 2 kcal/mol is an indicator of good convergence.
You can check different dielectric constants. The free energy value also depends on the length of simulations and the number of selected frames from a region. Please check the latest MM-PBSA papers for similar systems.
Thank you, Abdul Basit. yes, I checked the paper and I found is 8 is relevant for protein and DNA systems. I tried different dielectric constants as well.