I will identify adaptation options in agro-aquatic farming system to increase flood retention capacity in the floodplains? How can I use cost and benefit analysis to estimate options into monetary values?
Options based on double and triple rice crop in a combination with cash crop, fish farm, and wetland forest.
From the perspective of cost-benefit analysis, the value of an option is the difference in value of a project with this option (net discounted value of future costs and benefits) and without this option. This value can be estimated using different scenario's for economic change and climate change. First identify all relevant types of costs and benefits. For each type of benefit/cost, you need a different estimation procedure. A good first step is first to specify the effects (e.g. expected change in fish caught), then try to quantify them in non-monetary terms (e.g. number and type of fish less or more caught for the different regions) and then put them in monetary terms (e.g. multiply by an average price).
Have you seen the World Bank project appraisal report "VN - Mekong Delta Water Management for Rural Development"? It is available on-line at http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P113949/vn-mekong-delta-water-management-rural-dev?lang=en
Also, have you explored the World Bank Climate Change Portal yet? It is at http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/
A rapidly developing area of research in cost-benefit analysis is appropriate new methods for adaptation projects. When we developed mitigation cost-benefit analysis (CBA) methods 20 years ago (for China), we focused initially on options for which evidence-based approaches would work. Thus, we could use traditional CBA involving Expected Outcome Analysis (EOA) or Most Probable Outcome Analysis (MPO), since -- at least conceptually -- we knew the probabilities. With adaptation, on the other hand, we are dealing more with UNCERTAINTY than with RISK (for the distinction, see Frank Knight's old book on RISK, UNCERTAINTY AND PROFIT -- or just Google "risk versus uncertainty"). That is because -- with climate change occurring -- the years of previous evidence can not be expected to fit tomorrow's outcomes. Thus, the traditional approach to CBA has real problems.
World Bank Senior Economist Stephane Hallegatte is leading a small group of scholars working on decision making methods under conditions of deep uncertainty -- methods that have some potential for helping us with CBA in GCC adaptation applications. One popular topic at the moment is whether Robust Decision Making (RDM) will be a good substitute EOA -- in other words, turn the CBA math on its head (sort of like a dual approach in linear programming). You can find some of Stephane's papers on the Internet.
CGIAR is working on adaptation options for various crops. They have a group working on a common project to develop analytical methods appropriate across all the Centres. Since your comment includes rice, you should contact the social science research group at IRRI in The Philippines to discuss your questions. They can lead you to the work at the other Centres.
Jeimar Tapasco at CIAT has recently done CBA's of the type mentioned in your question.
Work is going on -- you just have to know how to find it and who is doing it. First, you should Google some of the foregoing names to read what you can about their work. Then I would suggest you contact the most relevant ones.
Hope this is to the point. Follow up with me, if you would like to continue this discussion.
Best regards,
Bill Ward
Dung,
First, you will have to estimate the cost of implementing your competing options. Then you will have to identify all of the consequences of the competing options…"good" (benefits) and "bad" (costs). As you are looking at alternatives, you will likely find incremental differences in these consequences that can then be valued. A good text on CBA is Boardman, et al.
Good luck!
Tina
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