Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,
At present (mid-March 2020), capital markets continue to dominate emotions, i.e. psychology of financial markets over cool, fundamental analysis. Due to the increasing scale of human infection with Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 causing COVID-19 disease, the risk of further infections increases rapidly. Since the number of coronavirus infections is still rising rapidly in many countries, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be very high on the global economic growth rate. The World Trade Organization has announced that a growing epidemic in many countries, on almost all continents, may already be referred to as a coronavirus pandemic. The level of uncertainty regarding the scale of the negative impact on economic processes is very high. There are no precise measures that can be used to measure the level of impact of a growing pandemic on the scale of the forecasted decline in economic growth in the global economy and in the economies of individual countries. It is only certain that this impact will be large. Many transport and tourist companies will go bankrupt. Many hotels, companies offering services related to tourism, catering services, entertainment services, cinema etc. will have serious financial problems in the coming weeks and months. In many countries, governments are launching anti-crisis financial support programs for enterprises that are already reporting declining sales revenues and have financial problems due to the development of the coronavirus epidemic. In many countries, however, the possibilities of anti-crisis economic policy of offering low-interest loans or non-repayable grants to enterprises are limited because, in many countries, after the previous global financial crisis of 2008, there are still high public debts charged to public finances. Therefore, in the context of an expanding coronavirus pandemic over the next few weeks or months, the scale of the negative effects of coronavirus on the global economy may increase significantly. Unfortunately, no one is able to accurately estimate the scale of these negative effects. The inability to quantify new risk categories causes a high level of uncertainty. Uncertainty also applies to investment decisions taken by investors and shareholders operating on financial markets, mainly capital markets, including securities markets. For three weeks now, there has been a stock crash on the largest and many smaller stock exchanges, a panic sale of shares. The price of a barrel of oil is also falling. Equity and oil prices are currently the lowest since the previous global financial crisis. The problem is getting worse fast. The scale of stock price reductions on stock exchanges may suggest a strong break in the upward trends in previous years and may mean a change to a long-term, lasting for many months or maybe many years downward trend, a slump in the valuation of securities and many other assets valued on capital markets. Therefore, the following question becomes relevant: Can a coronavirus pandemic trigger a global economic crisis in 2020, including a recession lasting weeks or months in many countries?
Due to the increasing scale of human leaf infection with coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 causing COVID-19 disease, the multi-faceted impact of epidemic development on the economy, including the situation on financial markets, is increasing. In this regard, I propose a discussion on the following topic:
Impact of coronavirus on economics, including economic growth rate and financial markets.
Over the past two weeks (end of February / beginning of March 2020), the scale of sharp decreases in the valuation of securities shares on the stock exchanges and a fall in the price for a barrel of oil acquires the characteristics of a stock crash. In addition, there is a significant decline in the production of many product ranges made in China, etc. The Swiss franc is rising against some of the other economically more popular currencies. Revenues and profits in the tourism sector are falling strongly in many countries. Can this situation be interpreted in terms of signals suggesting the possibility of another global economic crisis in 2020? Can a strong sell-off of stock prices on stock exchanges still last in the following days? Could this mean a change in the long-term long-term upward trend to a downward trend and the bust on the stock markets that lasted for many months?
In this connection, the following further important question arises: What anti-crisis Keynesian socio-economic policy should governments of countries develop to counteract the deepening scale of the economic downturn, including the significant decrease in orders for various product ranges, raw materials, decrease in production, potential rapid increase in unemployment, a decrease in income and consumption? What instruments of entrepreneurship activation should be developed as part of anti-crisis socio-economic policy? Currently, a particularly important issue to be resolved is the answer to the question: Can a strong sell-off of stock prices achieving the characteristics of a stock market crash similar to that of the stock market crash, from which the global financial crisis began in mid-September 2008, lead to the loss of financial liquidity and bankruptcy of many enterprises? Such a negative scenario would be realized, i.e. if a large global company or financial institution declares bankruptcy, it would be another significant impulse to continue the sharp decline in the valuation of shares on the stock exchanges and then it would be in the full sense of the crash the beginning of another global economic crisis.
In such a situation, central banks' intervention would also be necessary to ensure liquidity in the financial sectors. In recent days (beginning of March 2020) the US central bank, i.e. the Federal Reserve Bank, reduced interest rates, however, this has not caused significant calming of investors operating on capital markets. Calming activities of central banking are fully justified because the reactions of investors operating on financial markets, including mainly capital markets, are already becoming panic, the advantage of psychological fear of potential financial losses, although it is not yet known how large these losses can be. Below I have described my proposals regarding anti-crisis, Keynesian socio-economic policy, which governments of individual countries should develop in order to counteract the developing economic downturn in individual countries and the emergence of another global economic crisis.
A lot of economic data and the situation on financial markets indicate that coronavirus may be the main driver of economic growth in the global economy in 2020. A significant decline in economic growth is forecast in many countries in 2020 due to an increase in human coronavirus infection. According to many healthcare centers and institutions, an effective, tested coronavirus vaccine may not appear until mid-2020 or later. Until then, the number of coronavirus infections may increase significantly. In China, many companies have stopped production due to an increase in coronavirus infection. In many countries, tourist traffic is already falling, the number of tourists is rapidly decreasing. Countries in which international tourism constitutes a significant share of Gross Domestic Product are particularly vulnerable to the decline in economic growth. A significant decrease in international trade is also forecast in countries where many cases of human coronavirus infection have been diagnosed. In recent days (beginning of March 2020) there have been major drops in the valuation of securities on stock exchanges, which is also a signal confirming the forecasted next wave of decline in economic growth in 2020. Until recently, in 2019, the so-called trade wars conducted between the largest economies of the world, i.e. between the USA, China and the European Union. However, this factor is apparently already becoming less relevant to the global growing problem associated with the continuing (early March 2020) increase in human coronavirus infection. Therefore, in 2010, coronavirus will be the most important factor slowing down economic growth.
Due to the growing problem of coronavirus in 2020, economic growth will significantly slow down globally and in many countries. Since the end of 2018, the pace of economic growth has slowed down in many countries due to the so-called so-called major economies run by major economies, including Trade wars. Contrary to the concept of free, market, international capital flows and goods, products and services within cross-border trade, barriers imposed by individual countries, e.g. in the form of prohibitive duties, generate a global slowdown in economic growth. In recent months, another significant factor has appeared that increases the scale of the forecasted economic slowdown in 2020. This factor is the growing problem of coronavirus, because of which many factories in China have ceased to operate, income from tourism is falling, from tickets in cinemas and other mass events in countries where the most cases of coronavirus infection have been diagnosed. Therefore, the importance of planning and implementing pro-development, anti-crisis, Keynesian socio-economic policy is growing.
My research suggests that perhaps credit risk management procedures and systems have already been optimally improved, and now commercial banks mainly deal with the improvement of IT systems, cybercrime, data transfer on the Internet, and development of electronic internet and mobile banking. Over 10 years have passed since the appearance of the global financial crisis in September 2008. For several years, the economies of many countries have already returned to post-crisis balance, to optimal levels of economic growth. The situation on the stock exchange markets has also improved significantly after a few years since 2008. Recently, however, more threats and factors are slowing down the economic growth of the global economy. These factors currently include the so-called trade wars waged between the largest economies of the world, including primarily the US, China and the European Union, and the growing problem (currently beginning of March 2020) of the increase in coronavirus infection. For these two reasons alone, a significant decline in economic growth is forecast in many countries and globally in 2020. As a result, the economic and financial situation of many enterprises will deteriorate.
For example, the economic and financial situation of enterprises producing mainly for export and tourism companies may deteriorate significantly. If companies are in the process of paying back loans and their finances are burdened with a high level of debt, then there is a possibility of an increase in financial liquidity risk and an increase in systemic credit risk, i.e. not timely repayment or suspension of repayment of bank loans. Are commercial and investment banks prepared for this possible negative scenario? Did the banks, after negative experiences from the global financial crisis of 2008, improve their standards and procedures for managing credit risk and do not have to fear a significant slowdown in the economic growth of the global economy in 2020?
Since the end of 2018, there have been symptoms of a slowdown in global economic growth. In 2018-2019, the so-called so-called trade wars waged between the largest economies of the world, including in particular the US, China and the European Union. However, at the beginning of 2020, another important determinant appears to be the continuation of the slowdown in the global economy's economic growth, i.e. the development of human coronavirus infection. At the moment (early March), many economic data indicate that the two factors mentioned above will significantly reduce the rate of economic growth in the economies of many countries. Currently, mainly in China, production has stopped in many factories. A significant drop in economic growth is expected in 2020 in China. As a result, the scale of international economic exchange will fall. The level of economic growth in the global economy may drop significantly. Whether the already noted significant scale of the slowdown in the global economic growth may cause serious financial problems in some large enterprises, corporations and / or financial institutions in 2020. Can the currently forecast decline in the economic growth rate of the global economy cause a large decrease in sales revenues and a strong increase in the level of liquidity, debt, investment risk, etc. in many business entities and financial institutions, commercial banks? Is it possible in 2020 to declare bankruptcy of a large corporation or a large bank, which could trigger the emergence of another financial and / or economic crisis? Is this highly likely or rather unlikely? Have credit procedures and credit risk management processes been improved in banks after 2008 and the risk of another financial crisis occurring is low or rather high?
In the last week of February 2020, stock exchanges experienced the largest, most strong and dynamic drops in share prices since the stock market crash of mid-September 2008, i.e. the stock market crash from which the global financial crisis began. The stock market crash of mid-September 2008 was triggered by the bankruptcy of the fourth largest investment bank in the world, a bank with over 100 years of Lehman Brothers history. Are the strong declines in stock prices from the end of February 2020 a symptom of the onset of a major, medium or long-term stock market downturn and a significant deepening of the decline in global economic growth in 2020?
In addition, it has recently been discovered that melting glaciers have released many new types of viruses that have been frozen in glaciers for millions of years. In addition, recently the World Health Organization indicates that in recent years many new strains, types of viruses and bacteria for which there are no drugs have been created. This is due to the fact that in the situation of widespread use of certain types of drugs, bacteria become resistant to antibiotics. Is the significance of natural medicine growing in this connection? How to protect yourself against infections of new types of viruses and bacteria? In addition, there are also economic effects. Due to the development of coronavirus infections in China, production was stopped in many factories. A significant drop in economic growth is expected in 2020 in China. As a result, the scale of international economic exchange will fall. The level of economic growth in the global economy may drop significantly.
Currently, there is basically full agreement of researchers and scientists on the need to increase entrepreneurship activation and innovation in many countries, both developing and highly developed. Systemic, state-run activation of entrepreneurship and innovation is one of the objectives of interventionist, anti-crisis, national socio-economic policies. However, many studies show that the mere increase in financial resources from the state budget does not ensure high efficiency of the process of distribution of these subsidies and loans and does not ensure high efficiency of the entire policy of activating innovation and entrepreneurship. Therefore, how should the institutions and processes of distribution of grants and loans be improved, which aim is to finance the development of new micro-enterprises, new innovative start-ups and more innovative development or research projects implemented also by other types of business entities?
Activation of entrepreneurship is one of the objectives of interventionist, anti-crisis, national socio-economic policies in the situation of deepening recession in national economies. Currently undergoing trade wars, including additional barriers imposed to reduce international trade are causing a decline in economic growth in many countries. In addition, the development of human infection with coronavirus will also contribute to a significant decline in global economic growth in 2020. Therefore, the importance of pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy of the state is growing.
As part of a more pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy, the state should act as an investor financing from the state budget funds investments in the development of public goods infrastructure in strategic business sectors, i.e. investments in the development of communication, road and bridge infrastructure, energy and security , construction, etc. In this way, new jobs are created, citizens' incomes increase, consumption increases and the effect is an increase in production and improvement of economic growth. In this way, thanks to a more pro-development, interventionist economic or socio-economic policy, the state helps the economy recover quickly from the phase of economic slowdown and / or from the phase of the economic crisis.
In recent years, the importance of planning, shaping and implementing pro-development socio-economic anti-crisis policy, which will provide an antidote to the forecasted slowdown in economic growth, has been increasing. Public policy, including social policy should ultimately aim to meet the needs of citizens. In countries where a prosocial democratic system works efficiently and thus the participation of citizens in shaping public policy enables the design and implementation of such public policy as citizens and voters expect. However, not always planned as a pro-social public policy is properly conducted by the government. This can happen in the situation of a significant global recession, i.e. a strong slowdown in the global economy's economic growth, which has a significant negative impact on economic processes in a given country. However, the extent to which economic growth will slow down in a given country depends on many domestic factors, such as the level of public debt of state finances and the deficit in the central budget of the state.
In addition, the level of domestic productivity, investment, unemployment, citizens' incomes, consumption, inflation, interest rates, etc., which directly and indirectly determine the financial, material, housing etc. of the citizens is also important. The state, having the instruments of pro-development economic policy, tries to activate economic processes, activate entrepreneurship, innovation, investments, etc. so that the economy develops effectively and citizens receive high remuneration, to improve the material and financial situation of citizens, etc. citizens expect this and in a country with a democratic system they choose a government that implements just such a plan to shape pro-development socio-economic policy to build a state of economic and social well-being. In a state of economic and social well-being, citizens should feel happy. In the publications available on the Research Gate portal I described the instruments of pro-development socio-economic policy on the example of the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Mieszkanie Plus Program). I invite you to cooperate in the study of this issue.
In my scientific work, I also examine the issues of specific concepts of pro-development housing policy as an important element of anti-crisis socio-economic policy. I am investigating the impact of the Flat Plus Program conducted in Poland for 4 years as an important instrument of pro-development housing policy on the activation of economic growth, including the creation of new jobs, improvement of citizens' housing, improvement of the housing situation and as an instrument whose long-term goal is to be to counteract the processes of demographic change society defined as aging of the society. Research shows that in many situations, economic problems cause social problems and vice versa. Accordingly, social and economic problems are interdependent. Key social problems in many countries include the poverty of a significant proportion of the population, i.e. low income for some citizens. Poor income, material, financial, housing, etc. situation of citizens is associated with poverty. In addition, high levels of poverty are often associated with low levels of education, high levels of unemployment, low consumption, lack of financial savings, limited access to many basic services offered by both commercial enterprises and those offered by public sector institutions. Therefore, the high poverty scale of a significant part of society is a factor limiting the country's economic development. In such a situation, within the framework of social and socio-economic policy, the State should support citizens in order to reduce the scale of poverty in society. I described this type of socio-economic policy in my publications on the example of the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program) used for 3 years. I invite you to cooperate in research on this subject. In addition, other social problems also include negative processes for the economy of changes in the demographic structure of society, i.e. aging of the society. Social problems also include an increase in school violence and youth crime, an increase in the use of certain categories of drugs, etc. The state incurs high costs in programs to combat the negative effects of these social problems, e.g. in cases of accidents caused by people under the influence of drugs, intoxicants . It is necessary to conduct prevention and prevention programs consisting in raising public awareness through social campaigns conducted in various media, including new online media and social media portals. This is necessary because all these social problems generate high costs for the state and contribute to the slowdown of economic development.
In view of the above, it is important to define the main strategic challenges that are implemented as part of long-term economic policy. Strategic goals to be achieved should be defined in each developing country, i.e. goals that will be implemented over a period of several or more years. Strategic goals include mainly development projects whose task is e.g. to improve communication and technological infrastructure, and to develop systems that provide citizens with security in various categories, including, e.g. diversification of energy sources and gathering the necessary resources of production factors for the development of industry in subsequent years . The implementation of large developmental infrastructure projects that improve land, air and other communications, transport logistics, electronic communications and energy infrastructure, etc. on the one hand, improve the conditions for the functioning of citizens in the economy as well as create better conditions for the development of enterprises and thus economic growth.
As part of shaping socio-economic policy, the state may adopt as strategic goals to achieve improvement in living conditions, improvement of the material, financial and housing situation of citizens as a minimum for a few years. In this way, the scale of leaving the country by young, educated people who go to more developed countries in search of an interesting, better-paid job. The improvement of living conditions, the improvement of the material, financial and housing situation of citizens is also a pro-development, pro-economic and anti-crisis factor for the national economy, because then consumption increases, which generates an increase in production on the domestic market. The implementation of this type of strategic goals of the state was described on the example of pro-development, interventionist and anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs conducted for over 3 years. In my publications available on the Research Gate portal, I described the principles and strategic goals of implementing and implementing socio-economic policy programs such as the 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program). The key strategic, long-term goals of these programs are to improve the material, financial and housing situation of citizens to the extent that the fertility rate in families is successively increased, and thanks to these pro-development socio-economic policy programs to counteract the adverse processes of rapidly changing demographic structure of the society involving the aging of the society . Other types of strategic goals planned to be implemented on a multiannual scale in many countries include reforms of the energy sector consisting in replacing classic energy sources based on burning minerals with renewable energy sources. Unfortunately, these pro-ecological strategic goals in some countries are implemented to a very limited extent.
I described these issues in my scientific publications on the example of pro-development programs of active socio-economic policy currently used with good results, which is part of the program package referred to as the Plan for Responsible Development, i.e. the Family 500 Plus Program and the Flat Plus Program (Flat Plus Program). In addition, maintaining a high quality standards in the field of financial system security, credit risk management, financial transaction procedures and customer service at financial institutions, including commercial investment banks, is a key issue for maintaining long-term high economic growth in the long term. I have also described these issues in my publications, which are available on the Research Gate portal. I invite you to cooperation.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
I conduct research in this area. The conclusions of the research I published in scientific publications that are available on the Research Gate portal.
In view of the above, I am asking you the following questions:
- Is the importance of natural medicine due to the fact that bacteria become resistant to antibiotics?
- How to protect yourself against infections of new types of viruses and bacteria?
- To what extent can coronavirus lead to a significant slowdown in the growth of the global economy?
- In which countries can we present examples confirming the existence of correlations between the long-term ongoing processes of changes in the demographic structure of the society and economic growth, as well as between the applied Keynsian, pro-development socio-economic policy and the change in the demographic structure of the society?
- What instruments of long-term pro-development Keynesian socio-economic policy are used to revive economic processes, improve income, material and housing situation of citizens, which also results in an increase in consumption, improvement of economic conditions in life and often also an increase in fertility and changes in the demographic structure of society?
- Do the Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus program significantly increase the country's GDP?
- Do you think that the Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus Program as key socio-economic policy programs significantly increase the country's GDP?
- Do you think Family 500 Plus and Flat Plus programs are mainly social or investment in the context of long-term, long-term socio-economic policy?
- Will these programs, after their many years of use, contribute to a significant increase in fertility and thus slow down the economically unfavorable progressing process of changes in the demographic structure of the society referred to as aging (and thus reduce the risk of a strong future increase in the deficit in the financial of the participatory pension system operated by the Institution) Social Security)?
- In your opinion, how many years should these programs still be conducted as part of an active socio-economic policy so that it is possible to fully objectively diagnose their real effectiveness in terms of slowing down, stopping the aging process of the society and assessing the scale of the investment function of these programs in macroeconomic terms?
- How should coordination of the system credit risk management process be conducted in central state institutions managing budgetary and monetary policy in order to avoid a financial crisis?
- How should the pro-development Keynesian socio-economic policy be conducted while maintaining a high level of security of the financial system?
- How should the credit risk management system be improved at the macroeconomic level in the context of the state conducting a specific pro-development, Keynesian socio-economic policy?
- Is it possible to conduct integrated pro-development socio-economic policy and stimulate economic growth through effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policy?
- How should one improve the conduct of integrated pro-development, Keynesian socio-economic policy and activation of economic growth?
- What kind of pro-development economic policy should the government use as an antidote to slowing economic growth?
- Will coronavirus be the main source of economic slowdown in 2020?
- To what extent may the level of economic growth in the global economy drop in 2020 due to the development of coronavirus infections?
- Will coronavirus become a more important factor in economic slowdown in 2020 than the so-called trade wars?
- Are countries forecast to decline in economic growth in 2020 due to an increase in coronavirus infection?
- Can the situation of strong price declines over the last two weeks (end of February / beginning of March 2020) be interpreted in terms of signals suggesting the possibility of another global economic crisis in 2020?
- Can a strong sell-off of stock prices on stock exchanges still last in the following days? Could this mean a change in the long-term long-term upward trend to a downward trend and the bust on the stock markets that lasted for many months?
- In connection with this, the following next important question arises: What anti-crisis Keynesian socio-economic policy should governments of individual countries develop to counteract the deepening scale of the economic downturn, including the significant decrease in orders for various product ranges, raw materials, decrease in production, potential rapid increase in unemployment, decrease in income and consumption? What instruments of entrepreneurship activation should be developed as part of anti-crisis socio-economic policy?
- Currently, a particularly important issue to be resolved is the answer to the question: Can a strong sell-off of stock prices resulting in a stock market crash similar to that of the stock market crash, which started the global financial crisis in mid-September 2008, lead to the loss of financial liquidity and bankruptcy of many enterprises?
- Is central bank intervention also necessary to ensure liquidity in the financial sectors?
- Do you conduct scientific research in this field? If so, I invite you to cooperation.
- Can a coronavirus pandemic trigger a global economic crisis in 2020, including an economic recession lasting many weeks or months in many countries?
- What do you think about this topic?
- What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.
Thank you very much.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Definitely! It has already started to stall international trades, international cooperations, technical assistance, etc. It is imperative to note that countries seriously infected are shutting down which implies reduction in manufacturing, demand and supply of commodities. Withouth the above activities, there’s no way such country’s economy can blosom.
“The Coronavirus led to global economic slowdown, fall in the price of crude oil, and less inflow of dollars into Nigeria, the associated public health concerns have also led to factory closures in China, substantial drop in imports, widespread travel restrictions around the world, and cancellation of many conferences, sporting events, business travels, and FX orders.......” CBN
Yes, there are already adverse effects on international trade, supply chain n etc. which are directly related to economic activities...
Absolutely, the ramifications can/will be catastrophic (already evident). The prices of various items such as certain foods, supplements, sanitisers, masks and other medication will increase drastically due to shortages. Healthcare costs will substantially increase. Not to mention the effect it will have on the workforce (of all industries) which will negatively affect production, profits and overall GDP. Travel and tourism can decrease bringing is own consequences to the economy of Tourism reliant countries. International trade will be severely compromised etc. There are so many angles to look at when it comes to corona-virus economic effect.
Hasn't it already? In Croatia where tourism xontributes about 20% to GDP, we are already counting the loss and predicting crisis.
At the current going rate, Dariusz Prokopowicz , everything points in that direction. Consumer spending which accounts for 2/3 and above in most economies, will come under pressure. Similarly, with lock-downs and introduced in a few countries, spending by private companies and governments will also be impacted. We have already seen the (X-M) component coming under pressure due to travel bans and limited trade etc.,
I agree with the above opinions. Thank you for confirming my theses. Unfortunately, more and more economic data indicate that the development of the Coronavirus pandemic could lead to the global economy recession in 2020. There will certainly be a recession in many countries where tourism is one of the main branches of the economy. Certainly Coronavirus's impact on the economy, financial markets and the energy sector will be very large. The prices of stocks, gold, energy resources and other assets on capital markets are rapidly falling. We currently have a stock market crash on the stock market similar to other stock market crashes that have previously started global financial and / or economic crises. In view of the above, the recession of the global economy in 2020 is very likely. After the global recession, economic growth will be very likely to fall in the next few years. At the moment, until the Coronavirus vaccine and epidemic scale are created, and now the pandemic will increase, the Coronavirus has become the potential major source of the global economic crisis. In countries where the development of the epidemic will have greater negative economic effects, production will fall sharply, offering services such as tourism, catering, hotel services, etc., income, investments, unemployment will increase, tax revenues to the state budget will decrease, and economic growth will decline in 2020 a year can even reach several points percent. In this type of economies, economic recession is very likely, i.e. a decline in economic growth to a negative level, below zero of GDP. The current stock market crash consisting in a strong overestimation of valuations of shares, other securities, gold, oil and other commodities confirms the highly probable negative scenario about the possibility of recession and serious problems in financial systems in a significant part of countries in 2020. At present, however, it is difficult to predict what the world will look like once humanity solves the problem of Coronavirus. A lot will change for sure, the economy will look different. To survive this difficult period of economic downturn, many enterprises will be forced to carry out organizational, technological, financial and other restructuring processes. We can already see many changes. The economy, people's behavior, food preferences, lifestyle, forms of work are changing, etc. The importance of remote work and learning via the Internet is increasing. Consumer preferences and purchasing profiles of citizens will change. We can already see that many people, fearing for their health, change their eating habits and choose healthy, ecological food. Cigarettes are considering quitting smoking to increase their resistance to various virus attacks. A lot will change, but we do not know how much, because there is no answer to many questions about the potential for the continuation of the epidemic, now the Coronavirus pandemic. We don't know when the vaccine will be invented? Maybe only in a few months or later. These are the estimates of pharmaceutical companies. We do not know whether the Coronavirus virus will mutate and create its new, equally dangerous varieties. There are many question marks. What is certain is that after the Coronavirus era, the world will look different. The economy and life of many people will certainly change a lot, but we do not know how much and what the world will look like after the Coronavirus era. In view of the above, I believe that the recession of the global economy is possible in 2020 due to the development of the Koronavirus pandemic.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
I think the more correct question is, will the coronavirus cause an economic crisis beyond 2020. Considering the reaction of both private and public sectors in the
vast majority of countries the recession not only will prevail this year but most likely will continue beyond 2020. Since the medical profession and other sciences do not promise a quick solution, the future is gloomy. All countries react by drastically reducing economic activity, entertainment, sport events, closing all schools and prohibiting any public gatherings. The objective is to reduce the spreading of the lethal virus that nobody underestimates nor criticizes the undertaken drastic measures to protect life. The economy is not a priority. From the economic point of view, we are drastically moving to a deep recession since both aggregate demand and aggregate supply rapidly decrease. Thus, GDP in the vast majority of countries will decline, but national income and disposable personal income will not decline as much as GDP because many governments are ready to help firms and their citizens with tax reductions and transfer payments. This of course is the correct approach during the extraordinary difficult times the entire world community is experiencing.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Apparently, the Coronavirus has already begun to mutate, new strains of the Coronavirus are forming, which can seriously hinder the rapid development of a vaccine or other therapeutic therapy, and the problem of negative impact on the economy may last for a longer period. Do any of you have reliable sources of data confirming this type of information that is already appearing in various official media?
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Hi, I'm planning on doing a research proposal around this topic for a college assignment. I want to look at how a previous epidemic affected an economy. I'm thinking of looking at how the Asian flu (1957-58) affected Chinas economy through interest rates, wage rates and consumption. If anyone has anything that may be useful to me surrounding this topic (data, literature) I would really appreciate it or any ideas in general. Thank you.
Dear researchers have a nice Sunday. My question regard the nature of Lombardia (N. Italy) Coronavirus: its death rate is not compatible with COVID19 but with SARS. WHY??? >> see data >> https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS_Why
Of course Yes. It is already here going by the numerous shut-downs in economically fruitful ventures. A case in point is the shut-down of the major football leagues. Just imagine the huge economic loss. It's scary!
To answer Dariusz' question if there are any reliable sources of data confirming the looming global recession, I can state that such data regarding the performance of the economies do not presently exist. Statistics on the performance of the economies are almost always published quarterly. It is now middle of March so the first quarter is not over yet.There are however forecasts and I know yesterday the Financial Times (week-end edition) reported that The European Commission forecasted negative economic growth for both the EU and the Eurozone . On February 2020, I published an article with the Levy Economics Institute "Challeges of the EU as Germany Approaches Recession" Working Paper 948.(the parer is in Research Gate).
In this study numerous economic indicators were reported to have turned down in the Eurozone and especially in Germany. However, nothing convinced Chancellor Angela Merkel to give up the Balanced Budget policy. The corona virus made a big difference and Germany along so many countries discovered that Keynesian economics can provide hope for recovery.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Thank you for confirming my theses. I fully agree with Your opinions. I would like to add to the above considerations the following thesis:
In many countries, the Coronavirus pandemic is still developing. If you can, stay home.
The SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus pandemic is still developing in many countries. In many countries there has been a recommendation or legal obligation: If you can, stay at home. In some countries, the SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus pandemic is only in the early stages of an epidemic. Coronavirus pandemic is already a global problem. anyone who can should stay at home to reduce the risk of a pandemic spreading. Everyone who can only switch to remote communication, i.e. via the Internet and telephone. It is also necessary to promote only reliable information, i.e. fully confirmed by scientific research in the field of virology.
Apparently, the Coronavirus has already begun to mutate, new strains of the Coronavirus are forming, which can seriously hinder the rapid development of a vaccine or other therapeutic therapy, and the problem of negative impact on the economy may last for a longer period. Do any of you have reliable data sources confirming this type of information that is already appearing in various official media?
In view of the above, scientific research shows that isolation is currently the best preventive solution because Coronavirus is characterized by high levels of infection and there is no vaccine or any other fully effective medicine for Coronavirus yet. In addition, it is estimated that many people who do not have disease symptoms, do not get sick, but they may already be infected with Coronavirus, so that the pandemic does not expand, all people should follow the recommendations, i.e. you should wash your hands often, stay at home and limit the exit from home to the necessary minimum. people who show any symptoms of a cold, such as a runny nose or cough, should not leave the house because they may be infected with Coronavirus, even though they are not seriously ill. The idea is to minimize the extent of the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic and currently isolation, home quarantine is the best solution for all people, regardless of whether they are sick or not.
The importance of internet marketing has been growing in recent years, including the use of social media portals in promotion and marketing. This importance is particularly increasing in the context of the current Coronavirus pandemic. Currently, the use of new online media has particularly positive aspects if young people use smartphones to obtain the necessary, important and reliable information and use social media portals at work and in education processes when many workplaces, schools and universities have suspended their activities. Currently, the importance of using new online media for communication and education in the development of the Coronavirus pandemic is growing significantly. Because of the development of the Koronavirus pandemic in many countries, schools (currently close to March 2020) are closing for 2-3 weeks, young people with teachers and should contact each other only remotely via the Internet.
In my country, kindergartens, schools and colleges are now closed for 2 weeks. I noticed that in some other countries schools and colleges were also closed to limit the development of the epidemic. I believe that this is the right solution because of the high risk of potential spread of the epidemic. Children usually do not have a coronavirus, but they can easily transfer the coronavirus and infect other people, so closing schools and colleges is a preventive and legitimate measure. When schools and universities are closed, e-learning education should be continued. The use of ICTs in education is currently growing. In my country, the closure of schools and colleges is not treated as an additional vacation. The government recommends that children and young people stay at home and study at home.
Questions arise about the risk relationship of the level of contagiousness and the mortality rate of Coronavirus compared to other diseases and diseases that cause high mortality. Other diseases, including those caused by taking paper-like stimulants, alcohol etc., diabetes, atherosclerosis etc. are already well known. It is obvious how to treat these diseases etc. Coronavirus is still a big mystery. The scale of possible development of a pandemic is unknown. Coronavirus has a high level of infection, and there is no vaccine or any other fully effective Coronavirus drug yet. In addition, it is estimated that many people who do not have symptoms do not get sick, but they may already be infected with Coronavirus. In addition, it has now turned out (mid-March 2020) that Coronavirus is rapidly mutating, new varieties are emerging, so controlling a pandemic will be very difficult. The problem of a pandemic may still develop in many countries for a minimum of several weeks or months. It is currently the biggest medical, health, economic problem etc.
At present, however, it is difficult to predict what the world will look like once humanity has solved the Coronavirus problem. A lot will change for sure, the economy will look different. To survive this difficult period of economic downturn, many enterprises will be forced to carry out organizational, technological, financial and other restructuring processes. We can already see many changes. The economy, people's behavior, food preferences, lifestyle, forms of work are changing, etc. The importance of remote work and learning via the Internet is increasing. Consumer preferences and purchasing profiles of citizens will change. We can already see that many people, fearing for their health, change their eating habits and choose healthy, ecological food. Smokers are considering quitting smoking to increase their body's resistance to various virus attacks. A lot will change, but we do not know how much, because there is no answer to many questions about the potential for the continuation of the epidemic, now the Coronavirus pandemic. We don't know when the vaccine will be invented? Maybe only in a few months or later. These are the estimates of pharmaceutical companies. We do not know whether the Coronavirus virus will mutate and create its new, equally dangerous varieties. There are many question marks. What is certain is that after the Coronavirus era, the world will look different. The economy and life of many people will certainly change a lot, but we do not know how much and how the world will look like after the Coronavirus era.
There are still many questions to be answered in the coming days or at a later date based on scientific research. For example, it is already known that Coronavirus on objects (with smooth surfaces, e.g. shopping carts) can last for an average of up to 3-4 days. It is therefore very important to take special care in contacts in other environments, you should often wash your hands with the use of detergents and soaps that cause the coronavirus to break down. It is also known that Coronavirus is unfortunately resistant to slight temperature changes. According to the World Health Organization, the arrival of spring and summer (in 2020 in the northern hemisphere of the planet Earth), raising the air temperature by up to a dozen degrees C will not cause the coronavirus to break down. We already know a lot, but we don't know more. It is necessary to continue scientific research in the field of Coronavirus infectivity and possible methods of controlling Coronavirus, etc.
On the other hand, according to what I wrote earlier it is certain that the Coronavirus pandemic will greatly affect the global economy. Due to the development of the Koronavirus pandemic, the recession of the global economy is possible in 2020 in many countries now (mid-March 2020) additional anti-crisis, pro-development, activating entrepreneurship, consumption, bank lending measures of fiscal, budgetary and monetary policy instruments are launched . Today, many economists and financial analysts say that there will definitely be a recession in many countries where tourism is one of the main branches of the economy. Certainly Coronavirus's impact on the economy, financial markets and the energy sector will be very large. Because the prices of stocks, gold, energy resources and other assets on capital markets are falling rapidly, the scale of economic slowdown in many countries will certainly be large. We currently have a stock market crash on the stock market similar to other stock market crashes that have previously started global financial and / or economic crises. In view of the above, the recession of the global economy in 2020 is very likely.
After the global recession, economic growth will be very likely to fall in the next few years. Due to the increasing scale of human infection with SARS-Cov-2 Coronavirus causing COVID-19 disease, the risk of subsequent infections is increasing rapidly and the scale of the epidemic is difficult to estimate. At the moment, until the Coronavirus vaccine and epidemic scale are created, and now the pandemic will increase, the Coronavirus has become the potential major source of the global economic crisis. In countries where the development of the epidemic will have greater negative economic effects, production will fall sharply, offering services such as tourism, catering, hotel services, etc., income, investments, unemployment will increase, tax revenues to the state budget will decrease, and economic growth will decline in 2020 a year can even reach several points percent. In this type of economies, economic recession is very likely, i.e. a decline in economic growth to a negative level, below zero of GDP. The current stock market crash consisting in a strong overestimation of valuations of shares, other securities, gold, oil and other commodities confirms the highly probable negative scenario about the possibility of recession and serious problems in financial systems in a significant part of countries in 2020.
In view of the above, I believe that the recession of the global economy is possible in 2020 due to the development of the Koronavirus pandemic. Therefore, it is necessary to launch additional anti-crisis, pro-development, activating entrepreneurship, consumption, credit actions of banks, instruments of fiscal, budgetary and monetary policy. Some central banks have already announced lowering interest rates. Governments of many countries are increasing spending on the delivery of public goods, on increasing epidemiological safety. Financial funds are being increased, from which grants or low-interest loans are granted to enterprises operating in economic sectors particularly burdened with the negative effects of the development of the Koronavirus pandemic.
In the context of the high risk of a global economy recession in 2020, the following question now arises: Is a significant reduction in interest rates a good anti-crisis instrument, thanks to which the world can avoid the global economy recession in 2020? Unfortunately, more and more economic data indicate that the current (mid-March 2020) development of the Coronavirus pandemic may lead to a global recession in 2020. There will certainly be a recession in many countries where tourism is one of the main branches of the economy. Certainly Coronavirus's impact on the economy, financial markets and the energy sector will be very large. The prices of stocks, gold, energy resources and other assets on capital markets are rapidly falling. We currently have a stock market crash on the stock market similar to other stock market crashes that have previously started global financial and / or economic crises.
In view of the above, the recession of the global economy in 2020 is very likely. Accordingly, central banks are increasing their activity to maintain liquidity in the banking sectors. However, only some central banks have decided to lower interest rates. Should the other banks take similar actions? should central banks significantly lower interest rates as interventionist anti-crisis measures? can a significant reduction in interest rates, lowering interest rates to levels close to zero or below zero, to levels of negative interest rates be a good anti-crisis instrument? Will lowering interest rates to negative interest rates increase liquidity and allow lending in banking sectors to be maintained at optimal levels? Is a significant reduction in interest rates a good anti-crisis instrument, thanks to which the world can avoid the recession of the global economy in 2020?
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.
Thank you very much.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Deaer Prof. Prokopowicz!
This is a very important setting to consider. Coronavius is already mutating:
1) Yasemin Saplakoglu (2020). "How fast can the coronavirus mutate?" Live Science © Future US, Inc. Available at: https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html
2) Coronavirus Resource Center (2020). " As coronavirus spreads, many questions and some answers" Updated: March 15, 2020 Harvard Health Publishig, © 2010 - 2020 Harvard University. Available at: https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center
As a supply chain researcher I have passion to investigate this case: please let me argue that this disease has a potential to trigger a new global economic turmoil. In my opinion, this is due to a practically tested theory: "the domino effect". Now experts also in Finland - a country which is not that deeply impacted yet, - they admitted that the pandemic is a virus beyond control. In my view the danger here in this country is that in neighbouring Russia there are many regions that have no official datasets on the state of diffusion of this virus. In so there might already be grey areas also in Finland - areas that have infections, but they are not aware of those cases yet! Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst:
Aleksi Teivainen (2020). "Finnish government steps up response as coronavirus cases rise to 109" 13 March 2020, Helsinki Times Online, Available at: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/17434-finnish-government-steps-up-response-as-coronavirus-cases-rise-to-109.html
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
Though most stock markets are nosedived recently, the transitory effects will have prolonged impacts on economies and companies’ earnings because of coronavirus pandemic.
This is also evidenced by the fact that the Fed decreased very recently interest rates to zero level and the markets keep nosediving. This is an indication that markets are already far sighting and factoring the long-term impacts of current world events because of coronavirus pandemic. I am afraid, but current world events will have major impacts on companies’ earnings, which will definitely led to many bankruptcies.
Prof. Mazin Al Janabi
EGADE Business School,
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Epidemics in general and their various names cripple the economic movement of countries as a precautionary measure to prevent its transmission between people so that it does not cost the loss of the human element. Therefore, the economic movement, movement and trade that are tributaries of this activity and development to countries are formed, so how is the economic activity and the human element as one of the most prominent in the case of fear of losing it Because of these epidemics.
Of course it can trigger a crisis, and this maybe why they are doing it. In Germany, for example until today (3/17/20) only 70 persons died of Covid-19, while at the same time a couple hundred personas died if human influenza (classic flu) and both are infectious deseases following a exponential function in spreading. Why do our politics and media react this way they do causing panic?
Could it be that it is to justify huge financial aid to attenuate the (artificially caused) recession? Banks need to grand ever more loans what is ever more difficult the longer a financial system has to collapsed yet. The best thing that can happen to the international financial system is that governments all over the take out huge amount of loans. What 10 years ago were the bailouts now will be Covid-19-aid. And in case it does not help to prevent the financial crisis, that strike our economies every certain time (Article The Central Bank’s dilemma, the Inflation-Deflation Paradox ...
Chapter Local Money as Solution to Capitalist Global Financial Crises
Covid-19 gives the perfect pretext to explain the crisis: ist was because of Covid-19, and very few will recognize that crises are inherent in our system.
… Newly unemployed workers pull back spending further, and others, fearful that their jobs could be next...
Sapovadia, V. K. (2020). Terrestrial and Celestial Forces Expose Vulnerable Economists: Financial Crisis 2008 vs. 2020. Available at SSRN 3547745.
Coronavirus may cut global growth to 2% in early 2020 … There could be some very visible and positive outcomes for global cooperation...
Oxford Analytica. Coronavirus may cut global growth to 2% in early 2020. Emerald Expert Briefings, (oxan-db).
This once-in-a-century pandemic is hitting a world economy saddled with ... March 16, 2020 ... risk that the sharp downturn morphs into a financial crisis with zombie ... on the world economy typically lasted no more than three months. ... debt market are many potential troublemakers, including the zombies.
Please note the following links:
https://www.ft.com/content/f5bedb66-51a1-3eb2-a1ef-9ab452acc357
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/18/coronavirus-latest-news/
*An extraordinary degree of uncertainty prevails in the markets
*Global oil demand to decline in 2020 as coronavirus weighs heavily on markets
* Oil prices crash sends global stocks tumbling
*Major disruptions to global travel and trade.
We Are on the cusp of a global recession bigger than the 2008 financial crisis
The corona virus pandemic has the potential of triggering economic recession that would last months as markets worldwide suffer significant revenue losses. Production across Europe, Asia and the US being disrupted by factory closures, affecting the supply chain. The slow-down in key sectors/industries such as Aviation, Oil industries, agricultural, tourism has a spiral effect on the global economy. The financial sector has not been spared as evidenced by the plunging of interest rates and nose-diving of stock prices over the last three months. the impact on the financial market will even be worse than that experienced during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Developing countries that are already distressed economically are now being rendered more vulnerable due to external shocks and any stimulus package by the central banks and governments to avert some of these shocks are not yielding results as exchange rate depreciation takes a toll on these economies. The social effect of this pandemic is also eminent as the global economy will see increase in the poverty levels.
Methinks, this is an eye opener. Some argue that globalization has not only allowed for the rapid spread of contagious disease but it has fostered deep interdependence between firms and nations that makes them more vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Now, firms and nations alike are discovering just how vulnerable they are. Such views bring to the table the fact that globalization has actually accelerated a dangerous trend that was already underway.
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Currently (20.3.2020) the situation on capital markets, including securities markets, is stabilizing. This is most likely related to the intervention of central banks, including a significant reduction in interest rates, announced by governments of several countries anti-crisis programs supporting economic processes, fiscal reliefs for enterprises, deferred repayment of mortgage installments for companies and citizens, support of financial liquidity, activation of consumption, etc. In addition, the decrease in the number of new coronavirus infections causing Covid-19 in China, including in regions where the most recent infections may suggest potential positive outbreaks, with special precautions. All of the above factors can be positively received in the short term by investors operating on capital markets. However, in the longer term what will be the situation on capital markets is still a great unknown, because there are currently no precise estimates of the scale of economic slowdown in the global economy and a decline in economic growth in the economies of individual countries.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
What do you think about this topic?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.
Thank you very much.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, In China, currently (from March 18, 2020) an outbreak of the Coronavirus causing Covid-19 has been under control. The scale of new infections reported is very small. Why is the scale of the epidemic still rising rapidly in many other countries? Apparently, in Europe and other continents, new, other, significantly mutated strains of Covid-19 Coronavirus may already develop, causing slightly different disease responses than the original version of Covid-19 Coronavirus, which was created and developed in China. Is this confirmed information? What is the mutation rate of Covid-19 Coronavirus? If the rate of mutation and creation of new strains of Covid-19 Coronavirus is fast, then the opportunity to develop and create effective therapy for the treatment of patients with Covid-19 disease will not be easy. In such a situation, the global economic crisis may also be significantly greater.
Because currently the most important and effective method of limiting the development of the Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic is still isolation, so in connection with the above, I am also joining the appeal and recommending: IF YOU CAN, STAY AT HOME.
Do you agree with me on the above matter?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation.
Thank you very much.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, In many media, comments on economic issues appear that in 2020 due to the development of the Covid-19 Koronavirus pandemic, the global economy will slow down its economic growth by at least a few percent. relative to 2019. In many countries, there will be economic crises, public finance crises and a decline in economic growth well below zero, i.e. a severe level of recession.
Are specific numbers already appearing, preliminary estimates suggesting how much the global economy may slow down its economic growth? To what extent does the level of economic growth fall globally, and how much does the level of economic growth decrease in the European Union? and / or in other regions of the world, in individual countries?
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Many developing countries will definitely be affected and might not be able to recover until 2021.
The covid-2019 will of course bring about changes into the world economic especially with regards to shutdown of malls, international airports, universities, malls and markets. The covid 2019 may last till end of the strange year 2020.
Please consider our today's release on the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 by March 22nd 2020
Surely it inflicts the economy especially developing countries. In my personal opinion, the current event shows us that traditional protocols that is made to reduce the crisis effect are not that solid and somehow not reliable. The Higher ups should be thinking the other ways to develop the new mechanism in financial market e.g. option market, financial market and capital market.
Surely, I have been reading Peter Schiff thesis who proclaims that this is just a pin which burst a big bubble which had inflated the economy of the US for the last many years. He asserts that Coronovirus is a pin which will be used by policy makers to blame for a depression in the economy.
With markets and nations shut down for over a month, tourism and hotel industry, aviation industry, auto industry seeing no way to come back to life due to severe demand concussion, recession of 1930s is well on its way. All nations need to prepare for facing it rather than viewing it as a temporary phenomenon. This is the third World War not of weapons or armory but of deadly COVID-19.
I think that the economic impact of COVID-19 around the world is already noticeable. This challenge has become a global problem of modernity and society. The effect is already present in many sectors of the economy - government budget, manufacturing, financial markets, banks, employment, unemployment, international relations and more. This prompts the search for new approaches and institutional solutions to the consequences of COVID-19.
Many economic data indicate that in the development of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease, many companies, enterprises suspend operations or entrepreneurs are closing their companies and service facilities in an increasing number of sectors and sectors of the economy. Therefore, currently (April 2020) economic growth is slowing down in many countries. Current estimates show that in 2020, the global economy will probably slow down its growth by several percent. compared to the previous year. Therefore, it is necessary to permanently improve and increase the scale of anti-crisis socio-economic policy planned, developed and implemented both at the level of individual countries as well as within coordinated international activities. In some countries, pro-development, interventionist, anti-crisis programs have already been launched to save business entities from mass bankruptcy by introducing additional temporary tax breaks or exemptions, subsidies to employees' remuneration under fiscal policy. On the other hand, as part of monetary policy, central banks reduce interest rates, launch loans for commercial banks on preferential terms, buy lost loans from commercial banks and / or implement sovereign bond buy-back programs to maintain liquidity in the commercial and public financial system of the state However, there is the question is how many months of this type of high-budget assistance programs can be implemented? To what level can the budget deficit and public debt be increased as part of the implementation of such anti-crisis programs to help the economy, enterprises and citizens? To what level can the government allow inflation to rise as a result of this type of economic assistance programs? Can the current economic crisis in many countries turn into a crisis of public finances? If it is possible, what anti-crisis economic reform program should be currently planned and implemented in these countries to avoid a significant increase in the risk of potential loss of liquidity in the state's financial system? In connection with the above, one more question arises: Do you agree with the thesis that as part of limiting the scale of pandemic development through the use of forced home quarantine and forced suspension of economic activity in a significant part of branches and sectors of the economy, you can simultaneously run the above-mentioned government anti-crisis for many months programs to help the economy and not paying attention to financial costs, not paying attention to the growing scale of indebtedness of the state's public finance system?
Please reply.
Thank you very much.
Regards.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Its been one year after graduated of PhD. Unfortunately, I don't get the job yet. I am thinking that I may not get job after this pandemic disaster. Undeniably, some may loose their jobs. Some companies cut off the salaries, some of them will close their operations. But, I hope that the situation can be handled globally.
Regards
Young graduates should think of innovating into ventures that could be sustainable in the emerging environment where the enterprises, entrepreneurs will undergo paradigm shift. Work from Home could be the new order of the day that will help many enterprises recoup their losses over a medium term. Yes; jobs will be less. New areas of manufacturing may unfold post-pandemic.
The Covid-19 pandemic has scarred the world. It is life now completely unrecognisable in comparison to the freedoms we had a few short months ago.
Whether Covid-19 triggers an economic crisis depends on the ability of industries to adapt to the new normal.
Lockdowns have restricted travel so those industries which have successfully digitalised are thriving. Whilst those businesses that are unable to do so are in danger of collapsing and bringing a significant chunk of the economy down with them. In this global technocracy, almost everyone has access to a personal digital device. The limiting factor to successful digitalisation is therefore the industry rather than the public. So, the industries that will survive the Covid-19 crisis are those who either do not need to digitalise or can digitalise completely. For example, even the education system has fully digitalised. From kindergartens to universities; every educational institution is holding online classes. Some are even pre-recorded. Homework is submitted at the click of a button. This new system has resulted in cost savings and one wonders why this was not more common before. The hospitality business has suffered as it can only partially digitalise. Sit-in restaurants are empty but online take-away services are booming. The role of tele-medicine in the healthcare sector is increasing for outpatient services. Some patients even prefer to have a consultation via telephone or video calls whilst sitting in their own homes. However, many people are unwell and need to be admitted to hospital. So, this sector can’t fully digitise. Any sector in the economy that can digitalise will thrive under these conditions of the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, once the lock downs end these industries may remain fully online having realised the significant benefits of digitalisation. However, it is difficult to digitalise international travel. Furthermore, now that the world is more digitalised than ever before, we do not need to travel as much as we did before. So, it will be interesting to see what remains of the airline industry when the lock downs end…
The current COVID-19 pandemic is having immediate and long-term economic meltdown as evident by stock-exchange plummeting, the worst-hit would be third world countries needing more debt-financing.
A positive effect is decrease in global pollution and reduction in global warming, at least in the short term.
Further reading
1. An Economic Pandemic:COVID-19 Recession 2020
https://www.grantthornton.com/library/articles/advisory/2020/Economic-Analysis/Economic-Outlook/economic-outlook-march-2020.aspx
2. https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/06/an-early-view-of-the-economic-impact-of-the-pandemic-in-5-charts/
3. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/04/09/covid-19-coronavirus-drives-sub-saharan-africa-toward-first-recession-in-25-years
4. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/01/the-fossil-fuel-industry-is-broken-will-a-cleaner-climate-be-the-result
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG,
Currently (mid-April 2020) positive information is flowing from some countries that the scale of new infections and deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus epidemic causing Covid-19 disease has been starting to decline markedly for several days.
Does this mean that the global scale is slowly emerging from the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic? Will the factors generating the economic crisis also be reduced from now on? Will the scale of rising unemployment and falling financial revenues from taxes to the state budget be gradually reduced in many countries from now on? And even if the first positive aspects appear in the form of reducing the scale of crisis-causing determinants, would the global recession forecast for 2020 be avoided?
An important issue in these processes, at the pace of action of these processes are announced and launched currently specific actions, instruments, anti-crisis programs, Keynesian budget policy and interventionist, mild monetary policy, which aim is to maintain financial liquidity in the commercial and public financial system, maintain lending commercial banks, stimulating demand, investment, job retention, etc.
Are anti-crisis economic policy programs already being launched in your countries (mid-April 2020)? If so, what are the actions, instruments and anti-crisis programs?
Please reply.
Greetings.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The International Monetary Fund issued a stark warning about the coronavirus’s economic toll, saying that the world is facing its worst downturn since the Great Depression as shuttered factories, quarantines and national lock downs cause economic output to collapse.
The grim forecast underscored the magnitude of the shock that the pandemic has inflicted on both advanced and developing economies and the daunting task that policymakers face in containing the fallout. With countries already hoarding medical supplies and international travel curtailed, the I.M.F warned that the crisis threatened to reverse decades of gains from globalization.
In its World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. projected that the global economy would contract by 3 percent in 2020, an extraordinary reversal from early this year, when the fund forecast that the world economy would outpace 2019 and grow by 3.3 percent. This year’s fall in output would be far more severe than the last recession, when the world economy contracted by less than 1 percent between 2008 and 2009.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/politics/coronavirus-economy-recession-depression.html
This caution indicates only what we should do instead of what IMF or any one said about the consequence of the pandemic. This is worse than third World War. The virus threatens to live after showing symptoms of exit. We are unsure at the moment whether any vaccine can be invented in the next 12 months to combat this virus. We can't keep staying at home for months together while we can maintain social distance for years together. During this period reinventing and re-engineering the systems, reorienting the attitudes to austerity from austentaciousness, refocusing on deliverables, ethical governance are all important measures within our reach.
Certainly, especially in light of the recession and low oil prices
It is not just the oil prices fall. Entire supplies from different nations will take a down turn. Those who depend on other nations for their food will be the worst hit in a month from now. This recession like this disaster will have no predecessor. Every nation should prepare for the worst and do its best. It all depends upon how the citizens respond to the pandemic by taking all preparations without any overconfidence.
Dear Mr. Dariusz Prokopowicz, thank you very much for the sophisticated analysis. I agree with all of your observations and conclusions. It is also my question what will be the scenario for further development of our economy. We have many forecasts. One of the most important is provided by IMF and the institution share it's worries about the future and highlights that the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression is coming. On the other hand some other economists forecast only a short-term recession and then comeback to normality, at least for some countries (among them is Poland). What I observe very carefully - is the price of gold. Actually the price is very high. I do not know what is the reason - lack of confidence for alternative investment assets, the demand for glod from many central banks, or may be the consequences of the QE policies and inflation expectations, or may be some other. This is, however, the greatest symbol for me. In normal time the price of gold should not be so high. I am very curious what will happen during the next months and years...
Traditional thinking on fiscal deficits in economies does not make any sense when lives of people who earn the livelihoods in a family are lost; jobs are lost; wherever jobs existed, the salary cuts would be unprecedented. Post pandemic, when revival has to take place, entrepreneurship will be hard to find; enterprises will not be able to figure out where to invest - in health sector; medical equipment and the like or in food procurement and distribution; in auto industry - very few will have ability to buy a car even at the cost at which it was produced pre-pandemic because during pandemic all production stopped!! and so on. Replies are hard to find. Therefore, cheap credit should pump prime the economy; public expenditure of a huge order to just ensure that people have money to spend.
In some countries, confirmed information is already emerging that the number of SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infections causing Covid-19 is decreasing and the number of cured people is increasing. Predictive models suggest that in many countries the pandemic will almost completely end in June at the latest. Does it mean that the economic recession will last relatively short?
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Somewhere something went wrong in your information. There are a few countries that reported cases of revivals turning back to covid attack quarantine. Second, the optimistic safe landing is September 2020. Carona Virus defies statistical models. Covid does not seem to respect mathematics and graphs.
The average lockdown effect of 2 months for the year 2020 is very severe. It is a loss in output of goods and services. Added to this is the direct cost of health care and the multiplier effect from these losses. This can be offset somewhat by the fiscal and monetary measures of giving aid to those affected. Many forecast estimates have come out with negative growth. Whether the world can recover its loss in output for 2 months depend on the speed of recovery after the lockdown. Thinking ahead, many countries are planning for a ramp-up in output to offset partially for the losses during these 2 months. China is doing this. So, will other countries after the lockdown is lifted.
Probably the coronavirus recession could last a long time. Fears are growing that the worldwide economic downturn could be especially deep and lengthy, with recovery limited by continued anxiety.
Fears are genuine and revival may have to wait till September 2020.
A recession is unavoidable if defined as two consecutive of negative growth as per technical definition. What are the unknowns? The test kits and possibility of a vaccine to handle the pandemic. The current solution of lockdown is very severe in terms of loss of output. It cannot be a permanent measure. We are seeing countries preparing to lift the lockdown to allow conditional freeing, with the buildup of capacity in heath care services in terms of beds, protection equipment and test kits.
Currently, the goal of improving pro-development, anti-crisis socio-economic policy is, among others diagnosing which types of companies, types of economic activities operating in specific sectors and branches of the economy suffer the largest decreases in customers, revenues from the sale of products or services, falling profits, growing indebtedness, etc. In many countries a significant part of tourism, hotel, catering and service enterprises cosmetics, etc. are currently losing a significant proportion of customers because people are afraid of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus causing Covid-19 disease and this is also associated with various restrictions on moving away from home and an order or recommendation to stay at home under preventive quarantine in many countries. On the other hand, we may be observing the beginning of the end of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic. If in a few weeks the pandemic goes into the phase of extinction, will the global economy recover from the recession? It is likely that the global economy will be recovering from the current crisis for many months.
In view of the above, I ask the following question: How, with what instruments, interventionist programs for the development of socio-economic policy, governments of individual countries and international financial institutions should activate entrepreneurship so that the economies recover from the current crisis faster?
Please reply.
I invite you to discussion.
Thank you very much for participating in the discussion.
Best wishes.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Quite a few nations started releasing the lock down partially even without a vaccine in sight. The risk is huge because of the consequences of asymptomatic persons in long ques for essentials hurting the return to safety. Without the mass of affected persons returning to safety and those who were given the option to release follow the discipline of wearing mask and maintaining social distance, economic recovery even in medium term before the end of December 2020, will be difficult to expect.
Because of social distancing, many manufacturers work to 30-40 percent of capacity but contract working capital 25% more to pay to the idle workers at least 50% of wages as retention pay, recovery of industry is bound to take a long time. Demand also will take a shift and it will be quite a time before the manufacturers could gauge the changes in demand and tune in their production to the new requirements!! All this, I expect to happen only during the next year beginning - and this is a fond hope. If the virus, in the mean time takes reverse immunity, we will be doomed for another pandemic and a lot of destruction.
Can you suggest a fiscal and economic plan to get over in the short and medium term?
Dear Dariusz,
Though most stock markets (and oil prices) have nosedived recently, the transitory effects will have prolonged impacts on economies and companies’ earnings because of Covid-19 pandemic and health crisis.
This is also evidenced by the fact that the Fed decreased very recently interest rates to zero levels and the markets keep nosediving. This is an indication that markets are already far sighting and factoring the long-term impacts of current world events because of Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant health crisis.
I am afraid, but current world events will have major impacts on countries and companies’ earnings, which will definitely led to many bankruptcies worldwide.
The recovery from the economic impact of the Covid-19 health crisis will take lot of efforts and prolonged period of time.
Prof. Dr. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
Full Professor of Finance & Banking and Financial Engineering
EGADE Business School, Tecnologico de Monterrey,
Santa Fe Campus, Mexico City, Mexico.
Recent weeks of development of the situation related to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease) show that the scale of economic effects is associated, among others, with the effectiveness and type of instruments used for the crisis of social and host policy, including budgetary, fiscal and monetary . On the other hand, a comparative analysis aimed at diagnosing which country is better at reducing pandemic development and counteracting negative economic effects is currently very difficult due to the multifaceted nature of the problem, significant differences between countries in many determinants of pandemic development , combating it and limiting the negative social, economic, financial effects, etc. At present, there is not enough data to answer this question in a fully objective manner. SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic is still ongoing in many countries and is in various stages of development or decline. To conduct this type of full comparative analysis, it is necessary to provide full data on both the scale of pandemic development in individual countries, the anti-pandemic and sanitary security instruments used, the anti-crisis socio-economic policy used, the transition of some plants and enterprises operating in various sectors of the economy to the production of medical devices necessary for fighting a pandemic, the degree of compliance with anti-pandemic safety rules (e.g. when wearing protective masks, staying in home quarantine, etc.) and verified results of all these activities, i.e. the scale of the slowdown in the development of a pandemic due to the measures taken, the scale of deaths caused by Covid-19 disease, the scale of the increase in the number of people cured of Covid-19, the costs incurred, the effects of halting the deepening economic crisis, and many other factors. In addition, the mortality rate of people diagnosed with Coronavirus and other co-morbidities is different in individual countries. The scale of application of specific medical therapies varies, e.g. based on blood plasma from a person who has recovered from Covid-19 disease. Plasma containing Coronavirus antibodies is given to people who are seriously ill with Covid-19. In individual countries, located in different climate zones, communities living in different economic and living conditions, there may also be a significant diversity of natural social and collective immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus. It is known that most people infected with Coronavirus do not have Covid-19 or have very mild illness, just like a common cold. But the scale of the percentage of infected people who may not even know that they have or have had SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus may also vary significantly from country to country. Therefore, objective comparative analysis on an international scale is very difficult. In addition, an important factor hampering the above comparative analysis is that in present (May 2020) in individual countries the Coronavirus epidemic is at various stages of development or extinction. The epidemic has entered a phase of extinction in some countries and has just begun to develop in some others. Therefore, only when the epidemic will end in all countries covered by the analysis will it be possible to carry out this type of analysis and obtain much more objective results than at present.
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply,
I invite you to discussion and scientific cooperation,
Thank you so much for participating in the discussion,
Regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dariusz, if the initial statistics and reports emanating from a range of both developed and developing economies are anything to go by, the suggestions seem to be pointing to not only serious health but also deep economic scarring with varying scales, depth and severity. I hope economies deploy the necessary packages in order to mitigate the level of the scarring and how long it takes to be able to recover back to 'normalcy'. Interesting debate and discussion points here...
A global asset-price contagion has been averted by synchronized monetary policy responses, and deferred consumption could form the basis of a milder macroeconomic crisis. Whilst two-quarters of consecutive decline is almost inevitable, the recovery hinges on the reopening of economic sectors that are more contact-prone. A pessimistic scenario suggests a greater probability of a second wave of COVID contaminations, but it is equally probable that social distancing guidelines will simply be implemented across sectors, blunting the effects fo a protracted crisis.
... Governments are now considering how to develop policies for economic recovery responding to Covid 19 and it is particularly welcome that some, like the Scottish government, are explicitly considering the issues for it calls the 'wellbeing economy'. ... Anand, P., Blanchflower, D., Bovens, L., De Neve, J. E., Graham, C., Nolan, B., ... & Thoma, J. (2020). Post-Covid 19 economic development and policy: submitted as recommendations to the Scottish economic recovery group.
... Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system... Hepburn, C., O’Callaghan, B., Stern, N., Stiglitz, J., & Zenghelis, D. (2020). Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36.
Akin to Spanish flue of 20th century, the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global emergency of 21st century, bequeathing a crucial impact on lives and livelihoods which triggered phenomenal policy challenges for economic revival. .. Aslam, E., Khawar Shahzad, A., & Rehman, A. (2020). Challenges to Economic Stability Amid Global Epidemic of COVID-19: Apposite Policy Recommendations for Economic Revival in Pakistan. Aziz, Challenges to Economic Stability Amid Global Epidemic of COVID-19: Apposite Policy Recommendations for Economic Revival in Pakistan (June 20, 2020).
...debt restructuring ...Becker, B., Hege, U., & Mella-Barral, P. (2020). 4 Corporate debt burdens threaten economic recovery after COVID-19: Planning for debt restructuring should start now. Europe in the Time of Covid-19, 35.
...Health Equity, Social Policy, and Promoting Recovery ...Lynch, J. (2020). Health Equity, Social Policy, and Promoting Recovery from COVID-19. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law.
Hello everyone, thank you for participating in the discussion. I would like to add the following question to this discussion: If the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease) actually in most countries now (July 2020) has entered the extinction phase and the second wave of the pandemic will not cause such negative social, health, economic effects, etc. as the first wave of the pandemic In the first half of 2020, should there be a way out of the economic crisis now and in 2021 can the global economy return to its pre-nandemic state?
In some countries, according to the current forecasts of the European Commission, the World Bank and other public institutions and central banks, the pace of economic growth may return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021, i.e. to a level of GDP similar to that in the second half of 2019. These types of forecasts apply to, for example, some countries in Europe. Therefore, another question arises: What determinants must be met so that, in addition to the permanent expiry of the pandemic in the global scale in 2021, the rate of economic growth can return to its pre-pandemic state?
What do you think about it?
Please reply,
Thank you very much, Best regards, Have a nice day
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Colleagues and Friends from RG, Thank you very much for participating in this discussion and for providing inspiring and informative responses. Thank you very much for the answers to the question: Can a coronavirus pandemic trigger a global economic crisis in 2020, including an economic recession lasting many weeks or months in many countries? I am glad that the above issue is basically fully compatible and the answer to the above question is affirmative. Your statements confirm that the above-mentioned issues are current and developing. This discussion confirms the importance of the above-mentioned issues and the legitimacy of developing research on this subject. I also believe that the problem is very serious because it is not known when and in what severity the next, second wave of pandemic will appear and what health, social and economic effects it will cause.
What do you think about it?
Thank you very much and best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
I am strongly convinced that the problem is with us. It is not resolved yet for various reasons. Scientists have not yet come up with the medical "discovery" that can effectively be used to protect people. If there was a medical breakthrough as it is claimed by some, we will not see the benefits until all the stages of the new drug (vaccine) are completed including the successful testing.
Overall, globally it can be said that we are not wining against the epidemic because some countries are making progress but some are not.
The reason for this is mainly economics both Macro and Micro,
At the macro level governments hesitate to impose too many restrictions out of fear of slowing down the economy and increase unemployment,; this increases the spreading of the contagious disease. Once several countries relaxed the regulations the second wave came for several countries.
On the micro level many individuals are risk takers and often knowingly violate the government prohibitions. This was obvious during the summer with ,festivals entertainment, increased traveling both home and abroad
However, the scientists should have the last word for that and political leaders and individuals have and must comply because this is for the long-term benefit of the societies and individuals. Therefore long-term benefits must be placed above what may be perceived as short- term benefit. This requires both discipline and sacrifice for the world to succeed. Because the pandemic is a global problem requires international cooperation among countries in many areas. Kind regards,
thank you,
George K Zestos
.
I think the apreciation is correct, the economic collateral damage and long term effects are greater than COVID-19. In all (most) sectors of the economy.
Dear George K. Zestos, Juan Carlos Torrico, Thank you very much for participating in this discussion. Thank you very much for an inspiring, interesting and substantive answer. This discussion shows the growing importance of analysis of the economic impact of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic.
Thank you very much and best regards, Have a nice day,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
It is already happening in the USA and UK. Soon it will happen to almost every countries since all countries are somewhat tied together via tradings and other business deals, connections and loans, and are therefore interdependent of one another.
Dear Hermann Gruenwald, Thank you very much for the kind words.
I also believe that this discussion deals with important issues. Best regards, Have a nice day
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Michael Halim,
Yes, I fully agree with your opinion. International economic and financial ties have grown in the last few decades. Economic globalization was increasing. There are transnational corporations and international financial institutions in many countries. In addition, in many countries analogous or similar anti-crisis, interventionist, pro-development policies are applied, socio-economic, fiscal, monetary, etc. Therefore, the scale of cross-border economic flows of the effects of business cycles is also growing, including phases of economic activity decline in the periods of emergence of a specific economic crisis, including the current economic crisis occurring in many countries and caused directly (by citizens' fears of being infected with Coronavirus) and indirectly (introduced by lockdown in the economy) by the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic. Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Alaa Ali
, Yes, I fully agree with your opinion. Best wishes, All the best, Stay healthy!Dariusz Prokopowicz
Hello Dear Everyone, The current increase in the number of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus infections (October 2020) recorded in the country in which I operate, greater than during the 1st wave of the pandemic and still health care not prepared for the development of the 2nd wave of the pandemic, means that the previously introduced lockdown economy was unnecessary and large funds from the state finance system should be allocated primarily to the purchase of respirators (which are still missing). On the other hand, instead of this priority, anti-pandemic instrument, public aid was used to subsidize commercially operating economic entities that did not actually conduct economic activity during the 1st wave of the Coronavirus pandemic or reduced the scale of their economic activity mainly due to the lockdown of the economy introduced by the government. Currently, the 2nd wave of the pandemic is developing, interventionist funds from the state finance system are almost finished because the public debt has reached the maximum level recognized as an increased and moderate risk of the state's financial system liquidity, and respirators (in relation to the number of citizens) are still many times less than in some others countries. How can such an anti-pandemic security policy be assessed?
What do you think about it?
What is your opinion on this topic?
Please reply, Best wishes,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
In some countries like India there is declining trend of the Covid effect. The second wave started in Kerala is worrisome. In this context too, what Dariiusz mentions is material. Governments all over the world have to map the resources to health sector more sagaciously. Scarcity of resources is a mere excuse for any further intervention on a sustainable basis.
Dear Yerram Raju Behara, I fully agree with your opinion that governments around the world need to manage resources smarter in the health sector. Resource scarcity in the health sector can cause serious health, social, economic, etc. problems. An urgent, interventionist, preventive increase in the resources of anti-pandemic instruments in the health service is essential, as the current (October 2020) 2nd wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is developing alarmingly rapidly (Covid-19). Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
The pandemic was also produced for economic and financial purposes.
Therefore, the conclusion is evident and for all to see.
Dear Gioacchino de Candia,
Yes, I fully agree with you that the Coronavirus pandemic was a major factor in the economic and financial crisis that hit many countries in Q2 2020.
Thank you for participating in this discussion. Thank you very much for confirming my theses. I am glad that we look at this issue in a similar way. Best wishes, All the best, Stay healthy!
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Currently (October 2020) in many countries the number of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus infections is growing rapidly every day. Some countries have adopted this current strong increase in infection as pandemic wave 2. Therefore, the question arises: Can the 2nd wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, which began to develop from the end of September 2020 (and may continue in a negative scenario even until spring 2021), have similar negative effects? economic as the 1st wave of the pandemic from March - June 2020?
What's your opinion on this topic?
Please reply
Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Dariusz Prokopowicz ,
thanks for the mention.
I would like to further specify that the pandemic is being ridden (and magnified) by those who take advantage of the situations of widespread unease / crisis, which it is causing.
Best wishes
Dear Dariusz,
Thanks for the mention. My response to your latest query is: Most countries are well prepared to handle the second wave and several have opened up the economy. Sectors like tourism and travel on land, air and sea will continue to be hurt. Mere pumping up consumption would not do much without increasing production significantly. All the economies have to concentrate on enabling mechanisms for manufacturing to flourish and exports to surge. Inter-country trade of even essential commodities has taken a hit in the first attack of Covid. Now all the economies have to realize that we are an inter-dependent world. All trade restrictive policies have to take a back seat.
Dear Gioacchino de Candia, Yes, I agree with your opinion that the media picture of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic is compounded by unreliable information that may cause disinformation and additional, excess anxiety, state of emergency, and increased risk. Greetings,
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Dear Yerram Raju Behara,
Yes, the adverse economic effects of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic are still operating in many countries and now the 2nd wave of the pandemic has already appeared. I agree that the improvement in economic growth in the long term will not be generated only by increasing and activating domestic consumption. For a lasting improvement in economic growth, it is necessary to restore the level of production for export to the level similar to before the pandemic period and to increase the use by citizens and turnover of companies in the tourism sector, including, inter alia, hospitality, catering, services related to tourism, international transport, etc. In this respect, a particularly difficult situation occurs in countries where the share of international tourism accounts for a relatively large part of GDP. Greetings, All the best, Stay healthy!
Dariusz Prokopowicz
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