You may also want to check this paper

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jav.00441/abstract

And other papers by Aleksi Lehikoinen which are related to changes in species composition, population trends and range shifts (mainly about North-European species) .

There are many papers dealing with the grassland changes due to land abandonment. (land-use change). I send you two little works I just published where you can find many literature references.

for Belgium you might try to look at publications on calcareous grasslands by the research team of Olivier Honnay/Hans Jacquemyn (KULeuven), and the team of Grégory Mahy (ULG - Gembloux).

Thanks everyone; my focus on British/European grasslands is because I want to compare results with a data set a student has just produced in which she re-surveyed a Cotswold grassland and compared her data with the results found in the 1980s. 

In brief, she found that plant species diversity was similar (both surveys recorded about 50 species) but that there was only about a 20% overlap in species recorded then and those present now.  An 80% shift in species composition in 30 years seems to me to be a huge change, especially as there's no obvious reason for it (management has not changed, for example).    

Hi Jeff,

See if this helps add to your research.

Newton, A. C., Walls, R. M., Golicher, D., Keith, S. A., Diaz, A., & Bullock, J. M. (2012). Structure, composition and dynamics of a calcareous grassland metacommunity over a 70‐year interval. Journal of Ecology, 100(1), 196-209.

Thanks Anita :-)

Jeff,

As already mentioned above by Katharina Filz, there is a great paper published by DeVictor and collaborators using long-term monitoring datasets to explore shifts in butterflies and birds associated to climate change from 1990-2008. They calculated a "community temperature index" to show that the communities are now composed by warmer climate species. This index may be very useful for monitoring programmes.

DeVictor et al. 2012. Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale. Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1347.

Hi Jeff,

The CHEGD-fungi (i.e. species from fam. Clavariaceae, genera Hygrocybe and Entoloma; fam. Geoglossaceae and genus Dermoloma) are considered as a group of vulnerable grassland fungi that decline extremely rapidly if (1) grasslands are abandoned from traditional use along with a process of spontaneous plant succession or (2) are subjected to intensive, modern ways of usage (e.g. artificial fertilizers). They are excellent bioindicators. Here is one of the newest reference aimed exactly at Welsh grasslands. Should you need any other references on this topic (grassland fungi) don't hesitate to write to my e-mail (see my RG profile).

Cheers,

Neven

Thanks Neven.

Temporal changes in plant species composition and richness have been frequently reported in the context of abandonment of crop- and grassland, new fertilization, flooding or pastoral regimes, grassland restoration and others; what is truly new here (to the best of my knowledge) is that richness is stable and composition extremely variable; equally interesting is that no apparent change in grassland management (a mowed meadow?) is reported. I have a lot of ancillary questions and may be comments, but I guess I have to wait for the article.

Thanks Hein.  Yes, there is lots about this case which is unusual.  The meadow is grazed by sheep and as far as we;re aware that regime has not changed over time.  As it's a single case study we're unsure if it is publishable, but we hope that it's unusual enough to be of interest.

Porbably you are interested in long-term changes? I cannot add to those aleady mentioned, but for cyclical changes there is a model developed by Eddy van der Maarel:

Maarel, E., & Sykes, M. T. (1993). Small‐scale plant species turnover in a limestone grassland: the carousel model and some comments on the niche concept. Journal of Vegetation Science, 4(2), 179-188.

Think that long-term trends shall be considered on the backgound of short-term cyclical variability...

Thanks Zaal.

here some german essays:

Bernd Gehlken 2006: Das Gras und Grünland im Landkreis Nordheim, Notizbuch der Kasseler Schule 68: 12-64

MEISEL. K. (1970): Über die Artenverbindungen der Weiden im nordwestdeutschen Flachland; Schriftenreihe für Vegetationskunde, Heft 5, Bonn-Bad Godesberg

MEISEL. K. (1977): Flutrasen des nordwestdeutschen Flachlandes; in . Mitt. d. flor.-soz. Arbeitsgem.,N.F. 19/20. Todenmann- Göttingen.

LEDERMANN, B. (1993): Von Omas Wiese zum Queckengrünland und zurück.- In: AG Freiraum undVegetation (Hrsg.). Notizbuch 36 der Kasseler Schule: 5-77.- Kassel.

LÜHRS, H. (1994): Die Vegetation als Indiz der Wirtschaftsgeschichte, dargestellt am Beispiel des Wirtschaftsgrünlandes und der GrasAckerBrache - oder Von Omas Wiese zum Queckengrasland und zurück? AG Freiraum und Vegetation(Hrsg.). Notizbuch 32 der Kasseler Schule.- Kassel.

HÜLBUSCH, K.H. (2003): Poo trivialis-Rumiceten in Angeln mit einer Anmerkung zu Dierschkes 'Kulturgrasland'.- In: Notizbuch 62 der Kasseler Schule: 206-216. Kassel.

HÜLBUSCH, K.H. (1986): Eine pflanzensoziologische "Spurensicherung" zur Geschichte eines Stücks Landschaft.- In: Landschaft + Stadt 18: 60- 72.- Stuttgart.

HÜLBUSCH, K.H. (1987): Nachhaltige Grünlandnutzung statt Umbruch und Ansaat.- In: ABL (Hg.)Natuschutz durch staatliche Pflege oder bäuerliche Landwirtschaft: 93-125.- Rheda-Wiedenbrück.

HÜLBUSCH, K.H. (1969): Rumex obtusifolius in einer neuen Flutrasen Gesellschaft an FlussufernNordwest- und Westdeutschlands.- Mitt. Flor.-soz. Arbeitsgem. N.F. 14.:196-178.-Todenmann /Rinteln.

HORST; A.W. & HÜLBUSCH, K.H. (1993): Methodenkritische Überlegungen zur pflanzensoziologisch-vegetationskundlichen Arbeit; oder: eine vegetationskundliche Kritik an der Befragungsempirie - das Grünland läßt sich doch soziologisch gliedern! - In: AG Freiraum und Vegetation (Hrsg.).Notizbuch 31 der Kasseler Schule: 35-51. Kassel.

GEHLKEN, B. (1995): Von der Bauerei zur Landwirtschaft. Aktuelle und historische Grünlandvegetation im Stedinger Land.- In: Notizbuch 36 der Kasseler Schule: 200-291.- Kassel.

FILGER, R. (1992): Extensives und intensives Grünland; in: Arbeitsbericht 104 der GH Kassel, FB Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung, Kassel

ARKENAU, T. & WUCHERPFENNIG, G. (1985): Grünlandgesellschaften als Indikator der Nutzungsintensität; Arbeitsbericht 57 der GH Kassel, FB Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung. Kassel

Hi Jeff

You might be interested in this recently accepted paper of ours:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12287/abstract

cheers

Thanks Nina.

Hi Jeff

Has the supplementary feeding of sheep been constant over the decades?

regards

Hi Nina, certainly interesting and to the point, but the turn-over does not seem so drastic as sketched by Jeff.

regards

Hello Hein - that's a good question and at the moment we're unsure; it's something that we need to look into.  Presumably you're thinking that the input of nitrates may have increased through supplementary feeding?

Both N and P input could have increased through sheep feed; N also through the atmosphere (car traffic increase could have raised atmospheric N levels). Grassland may be either N or P limited (see attached).

Sorry for delayed response.

Article Nitrogen and phosphorus limited production of cereals and se...

Hi Jeff

Another reference on consequences of atmospheric N deposition 

Loss of plant species after chronic low-level nitrogen deposition to prairie grasslands Christopher M. Clark & David Tilman

Nature 2008

Cheers

Nina

Hi there! Sorry for bringing and exotic example for Europe. Because it comes from completely natural situation, I feel it can add to the discussion. Neotropical Savannahs when protected against fire can change composition drastically within a decade. So, stop fire moves grasslands into forests or another state of the pure grass - pure forest continuum. Cheers

André

Hi Jeff Ollerton

We conducted a study in tundra (!) grasslands in Northern Norway and found the exclusion of herbivores to cause modification of species composition but not species richness or diversity. I have attached the publication. Cheers, Kari Anne

Thanks Kari!

You might like to consider our running projects on lowland and upland hay meadows. Shift in plant composition for instance are very rapid after intensification of mowing practice of mountain grasslands. We also have a recent systematic review about the effects of fertiliser addition to mountain grasslands. Contact us again if needed. Best:

http://www.cb.iee.unibe.ch/content/research/by_ecosystem_type/agroecosystems/lowland_grassland/index_eng.html

http://www.cb.iee.unibe.ch/content/research/by_ecosystem_type/alpine_ecosystems/alpine_grassland/index_eng.html

Thanks, will take a look.