I am looking for examples where a mistake in a simulation (discrete event or agent-based) has led to wrong predictions and consequently caused big trouble (e.g. problems with productivity; loss of money).
I know that people usually do not write about failures in the scientific literature. But I remember very vaguely that during my PhD studies I read about some examples. Unfortunately I cannot recall the authors/titles of these papers.
Your help is much appreciated. If possible, please provide references.
Hi
Hmm, here is an example, where the simulation was PHYSICAL (in the beginning
of the 1960'ies the computer power simply did not allow a simulation).
The Vajont Dam in Italy was completed in 1959, but the risk of a landslide was
known and a physical model was made and simulations were made. Unfortunately,
the experimenters underestimated the speed by which the landslide would occur,
so instead of a 25 m. tsunami a 250 m. tsunami was created. The city beneath the
dam, Longarone was destroyed and 1909 people were killed.
See e.g. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vajont_Dam
Perhaps as a reverse and indirect approach to your question, the study in one of the links below attempts to use a "Cyber-Physical Simulation" to achieve a connective feedback link between cyberspace and reality. The area of application is the energy grid, which in some cases in the past have been quite unpredictable (or grown beyond the predictive capabilities of automated systems- which in most cases would involve a look-forward/simulation function as a means to scenario planning) leading to blackouts across even continents.
Another documented case of a physical "simulation" (read about the rig used to simulate possible scenarios and to point to prototyping before the actual launch in the link below) which somehow did not end up informing real-world engineers and resulted in loss of life and money was the Challenger Disaster.
Lesson in these cases:communicative links and integrative capabilities between the simulation environments (and the real/physical system) are vital aspects to consider.
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=6787366
http://www.space.com/18084-space-shuttle-challenger.html
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