I am looking for a model/theory to use that can predict the acceptance/adoption of prospective users by the introduction of a new technology (software system).
You may want to look at Bass Diffusion Model which is generally used to model diffusion /acceptance of new technology. It is also widely used in healtcare to model infectious disease.
Besides Roger' curve, it would also be insightful to consider the assumptions underlying the hype cycle, also known as the Gartner curve (this however is a proprietary technology adoption model).
Some consideration of interactivity as the cornerstone of adoption...