Hi Ian,

For terrestrial ecosystems, the mobility of plant species is dependent on quite a diversity of factors. As a general rule I would state that species which are dependent on for example one animal species for fertilisation do not have not much possibilities to move up North (or South) from the equator (Amazonia, Central Africa) , when the insect or bird does not move with its host (for fertilization) plant species, or does not expand its territory. It might even be the reverse. Climate change leading to the reduction of the territory or even extinction of the animal performing the fertilisation of a certain plant species, will lead inevitably to the extinction of the plant species as well. In Amazonia, some very tall tree species are in this case. Hence, very specialised plant species are not bound to migrate, unless their fertilizing animal moves, or expands its living space.

Species which are bound to move fast are those which we know as the cosmopolites in the plant world, and these are mostly those species which are fertilized by the wind, as well as underground by a rooting system which enables sprouting at a a relatively large distance from the mother plant. Axamples are to be found in the temperate zone (Europe), with Polygonum Japonicum, as the exponent of that strategy. Some of these are even called 'pest plants'.

Many European willow species (Salix spp.) also show a very high flexibility in producing hybrids, with new traits, which makes them adapt quite fast to new growing conditions. They show a high genetical flexibility by (natural) hybridsation.

Hence very dfiferent mechanism are at play here, not the least man himself, by planting exotic species in gardens, of which some species 'escape' like in Europe the Polygonum Japonicum, which is there to stay, or by moving seeds, tubers or plants from one continent to the other (most crops). Its roots go till 1 meter deep, and it is fertilized very easily by the wind. This plant is a more vigorous coloniser in Europe than the Japanese themselves ;-), besides other plant (animals as well) species from Northern America essentially.

So a single answer does not exist, and species from the tropics (at least terrestrial plant species) are not especially more flexible to move North (and South) than vice versa. One has to consider as well that species from the tropics are able to survice only in a rather small temperature niche, opposite to plant species form the North, which are at that point much more adapted to larger temperature differences, due to the existence of seasonality whether in temperature or in water supply of both.

Cheers,

Frank

Based on the present knowledge on seagrasses, for example, I think that will occurr the opposite. Tropical species are highly resistant to changes in salinity and temperature, the main variables that will change with warming in the ocean. You can find some goods references in my recent revision paper (Ecology of Brazilian seagrasses...) on this theme: Short and Neckles (1999), Duarte (2000), Orth et al. (2006)...

I actually feel that the opposite will be true. Tropical species are more acclimated to a smaller range of temperature and salinity, so if the climate begins to shift outward from their acclimated range, the species will not be able to adapt as quickly as those in a temperate climate where they experience regular changes in these parameters. I don't have a paper to refer to, but I will try to find one tomorrow.

Check out D.H. Janzen's paper

"Why Mountain Passes are Higher in the Tropics" and Julián Simón López-Villalta's "Why Mountain Passes are Higher ... for Endemic Amphibians and Reptiles"

I would suggest reading more work by Kevin Gaston, who has been looking at species range distributions. Temperate species tend to occupy a larger latitudinal range than tropical ones, so warming in the temperate range could exacerbate this difference.

I would suggest looking at this paper:

Addo-Bediako, A., Chown, S.L. &. Gaston, K.J. 2000. Thermal tolerance, climatic variability and latitude. Proceedings of the Royal Society, London B 267, 739-745.

Typically tropical Lepidoptera from the eastern Himalaya are colonizing the western Himalaya as humidity and temperature increase. This has been going on during the past 30 years and there was a spate of new arrivals during the 1990s, which seems to have leveled off now.

My 1994 paper on the Hawkmoths of Kumaon (Records of the Zoological Survey of India, Occasional Paper 156) deals with this; also several notes reporting the arrival of various butterfly species in the W. Himalaya.

Vitasse et al. 2013 Elevational adaptation and plasticity in seedling phenology of temperate deciduous tree species.

This is on the population level, but may be true at the species level as well. They found for 7 temperate tree species that low-elevational populations have higher plasticity than high-elevational populations, suggesting that "warm-adapted" populations tend to shift their boundaries more easily.

I've contemplated this question myself. Although I have not actually conducted research on it, it seems that some marine species from the Caribbean province are expanding their ranges northward along the Atlantic Coast. I was recently researching a particular species of clam and found that it is being listed as an "invasive" in the Chesapeake Bay, yet from the reports I can find in the literature, it seems its just been working its way up the coast over the last 30 years.

Species from temperate climate zone are easier going to North (not so easy to South mostly due to new diseases and parasites) as they exist in widest range of temperature differences (deserted area in Central Asia for instance have day-night change over 30oC), when species from tropics or Sub-Polar and Polar region stay home or at least are not competitive in new climatic areas. But, after global warming, large area is getting new status as frost free (winther min temperature >0oC) and can be suitable for new species from South.

Lessepsian Migration (boundary shifts of Red Sea species via Suez Canal) is also a good instance for your question. However the climate change dependency is not completely demonstrated approximately 100 fish species and much more others extended their boundaries quite north. I can suggest following paper:

Hiddink, J.G., Ben Rais Lasram, F., Cantrill, J. and Davies, A. J. (2012), Keeping pace with climate change: what can we learn from the spread of Lessepsian migrants?. Global Change Biology, 18: 2161–2172. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02698.x

When I was in The Netherlands and attended the Dutch Ecological Association annual meeting in 2009,it seemed like majority of botanical papers were about southern plant species from Spain and France extending their ranges northward in Netherlands, Germany and in some case Scandnavia. One of the best known ecological problems in North America is the northward (in Canada and Alaska) and altitudinal (eg. Colorado) increases in bark beetles that is resulting in killing of trees, especially pine, fir etc. Warming has also allowed the beetles, insome case, to produce multiple generations per year instead of being univoltine. Drought is also stressing the trees and tree death is increasing forest fires. Right now in January, serious forest fires are occuring in California which is experiencing the fourth year of a worsening record drought. Normally, the fire season does not begin until late spring, after the snow in the moutains has melted but snow cover is at record lows this winter. I am not an expert on bark beetles or plants, but hundreds of peer-previewed articles can, of course, be readily accessed through Google Scholar searches.

Hi Ian,

For terrestrial ecosystems, the mobility of plant species is dependent on quite a diversity of factors. As a general rule I would state that species which are dependent on for example one animal species for fertilisation do not have not much possibilities to move up North (or South) from the equator (Amazonia, Central Africa) , when the insect or bird does not move with its host (for fertilization) plant species, or does not expand its territory. It might even be the reverse. Climate change leading to the reduction of the territory or even extinction of the animal performing the fertilisation of a certain plant species, will lead inevitably to the extinction of the plant species as well. In Amazonia, some very tall tree species are in this case. Hence, very specialised plant species are not bound to migrate, unless their fertilizing animal moves, or expands its living space.

Species which are bound to move fast are those which we know as the cosmopolites in the plant world, and these are mostly those species which are fertilized by the wind, as well as underground by a rooting system which enables sprouting at a a relatively large distance from the mother plant. Axamples are to be found in the temperate zone (Europe), with Polygonum Japonicum, as the exponent of that strategy. Some of these are even called 'pest plants'.

Many European willow species (Salix spp.) also show a very high flexibility in producing hybrids, with new traits, which makes them adapt quite fast to new growing conditions. They show a high genetical flexibility by (natural) hybridsation.

Hence very dfiferent mechanism are at play here, not the least man himself, by planting exotic species in gardens, of which some species 'escape' like in Europe the Polygonum Japonicum, which is there to stay, or by moving seeds, tubers or plants from one continent to the other (most crops). Its roots go till 1 meter deep, and it is fertilized very easily by the wind. This plant is a more vigorous coloniser in Europe than the Japanese themselves ;-), besides other plant (animals as well) species from Northern America essentially.

So a single answer does not exist, and species from the tropics (at least terrestrial plant species) are not especially more flexible to move North (and South) than vice versa. One has to consider as well that species from the tropics are able to survice only in a rather small temperature niche, opposite to plant species form the North, which are at that point much more adapted to larger temperature differences, due to the existence of seasonality whether in temperature or in water supply of both.

Cheers,

Frank

Molina-Montenegro and Naya (2012; Plos ONE7(10): e47620. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047620) have published an interesting study of phenotypic plasticity increasing with geographic latitude in a Taraxacum species. A high plasticity is often considered as a requirement for acclimation to a broader environmental niche. Thus, high plasticity may imply local persistence due to adjustment. However, many other factors influence acclimation. There is not a simple answer to that otherwise very interesting question.

Just a note on this interesting topic: has anybody else noticed that, when talking about low latitudes and higher latitudes, there is a diversity of interpretations in the previous posts? Adding to the complexity explained by Frank Veroustraete, it is not the same moving from tropical zone to the temperate zone than moving from temperate zone to sub boreal areas. As can be followed in the posts, the arguments are quite the same in both situations, but used exactly in the opposite way.

Interesting variety of thoughts here, maybe someone should write a review.

As is usually the case, it depends.... There are no simple answers because of the number of variables that need to be considered. One variable is the nature of the climate regime shift (see Feng et al. 2014, "Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenerio CMIP5 simulations," in Global & Planetary Change 112:41-52). Another is the speed of the change (see Loarie et al. 2009, "The velocity of climate change," in Nature 462:1052-1057. And it certainly depends on the species we are looking at. Malcolm et al. (2002), for example, suggest that high rate of change could select for species with higher plasticity & mobility. ("Estimated migration rates under scenarious of global climate change," Journal of Biogeography 29:835-849).

Ar 5

I am looking specifically at freshwater fishes in Texas and I am seeing indications of movement in ranges but I cannot determine if any of the species are doing so because of climate change. There are a lot of other anthropogenic factors which are, to make a pun, muddying the water. Not the least of these is inter-basin exchanges between river basins caused by movement of water for drinking water and/

or for irrigation plus the geomorphology of the state where movement between river basins involves both east-west and north-south movement overlaid by a mainly east-west gradients in rain fall. If anybody has suggestions how to separate factors out, they would be appreciated.

I suggest you read:

- Qinfeng Guo • Dov F. Sax • Hong Qian • Regan Early

Latitudinal shifts of introduced species: possible causes

and implications. Biol Invasions (2012) 14:547–556

DOI 10.1007/s10530-011-0094-8

David A Feary1,*, Morgan S Pratchett2, Micheal J Emslie3, Ashley M Fowler1, Will F Figueira4, Osmar J Luiz5, Yohei Nakamura6 andDavid J Booth1

Latitudinal shifts in coral reef fishes: why some species do and others do not shift

Fish and Fisheries

Article first published online: 26 APR 2013

DOI: 10.1111/faf.1203

There is a recent paper by Sunday on Nature Climate Change that might be of your interest.

Http://www.pnas.org/content/111/2/723.short

Hi Ian,

There are no simple answers to your question because so many factors come into play to determine species' response to climate chage e.g. physiological tolerances, dispersal ability, behavioral adaptation and so on. On the other hand it is not so easy to disentangle the climate-driven shifts from other non-climatic factors. Again this depends on system and species you are trying to look at as some systems and species seem to be more sensitive to climate change than others. To understand this complex topic needs a broader literature coverage. So I suggest you to have a look on the following papers might be of interest.

Colwell, R. K., Brehm, G., Cardelús, C. L., Gilman, A. C., & Longino, J. T. (2008). Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics, 322(October), 258–261.

Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Huey, R. B., Sheldon, K. S., Ghalambor, C. K., Haak, D. C., & Martin, P. R. (2008). Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude Thermal Safety margin.

The work of Dr. Vivekanand of cmfri India explain the extended range of pelagic fishes to the coalder waters, even though it is not clear to me if the extended distribution is because of temperature or due the absence of predators.

You might also look at Rappaport's Rule and more recent papers that test it. For example, Sizling, Storch & Kiel (2009, Ecology 90(12): 3575-3586) say: “The most pervasive species-richness pattern, the latitudinal gradient of diversity, has been related to Rapoport's rule, i.e., decreasing latitudinal extent of species' ranges toward the equator. According to this theory, species can have narrower tolerances in more stable climates, leading to smaller ranges and allowing coexistence of more species.”

In my own locality in Nebraska, there have been a number of northward shifts of animal species within my lifetime. A personal anecdote: in my youth (around 1960) in northeastern Nebraska we had whitetailed jackrabbits (Lepus townsendii) that turned white in winter. By the time I was in high school (late 60s), they had been replaced by blacktailed jacks (Lepus californicus). "Mammals of the Northern Great Plains" (Jones et al., 1983) lists their ranges as north and south of the Platte River, respectively, although this was already incorrect.

Also, turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) were unheard of in my youth, today they are common throughout the state. A well-documented arrival is the hispid cotton rat (Sigmodon hispidus), and nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) keep turning up, one near the South Dakota border, the northern-most record.

It worth noting that the above, with the possible exception of armadillos, are fairly mobile, fast-breeding species with wide habitat tolerances. It seems reasonable that species without these advantages will move more slowly, or perhaps not at all until and unless entire ecosystems shift northward.

Please see some papers (1) and my comments (2) below

1.Papers: Some references relevant to the topics are listed below:

-Crimmins SM, Dobrowski SZ, Greenberg JA, Abatzoglou JT, and Mynsberge AR. 2011. Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species' Optimum Elevations. Science 331: 324-327.

-Hickling, R., D. B. Roy, J. K. Hill, R. Fox, C. D. Thomas 2006. The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob. Change Biol. 12, 450. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01116.x

-Last, P. R., W. T. White, D. C. Gledhill, A. J. Hobday, R. Brown, G. J. Edgar and G. Pecl 2011. Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 20: 58–72.

-Nye, J. A., J. S. Link, J. A. Hare, and W. J. Overholtz 2009. Changing spatial distribution of fish stocks in relation to climate and population size on the Northeast United States continental shelf. Marine Ecology-Progress Series 393:111-129.

Parmesan, C and Gary Yohe 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature. 421: 37-42.

2.Comments: Both terrestrial and marine organisms are shifting. Some species are moving poleward, some up in elevation; some species are going deep to increased depths in the oceans (deep) to escape heat or warming. A wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species have already moved northwards and uphill (higher elevations) in Britain over approximately 25 years. A meta-analysis of 99 species of birds, butterflies and alpine herbs were carried out by Parmesan and Yohe (2003) which found significant range shifts of species due to climate change averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles. A number of commercially exploited fish stocks showed significant range (latitudinal and depth) shifts between 1968 and 2007 in response to increased sea surface and bottom temperatures (Nye et al. 2009). In Australia, marine fish are moving south towards Tasmania. However, not all species movements have been poleward or up in elevation. For example, a study in California showed that numerous vascular plants have exhibited a significant downward shift in altitude since the 1930s due to regional changes in climatic water balance rather than temperature (Crimmins et al. 2011). Species will respond to climate change either by staying, moving out or dying-out. Whether low latitudes species are moving faster than the high latitudes species requires a comprehensive and long term research and investigations.

A paper that may well be of interest here, and just published is:

Bates AE, GT Pecl, S Frusher, AJ Hobday, T Wernberg, DA Smale, JM Sunday, NA Hill, NK Dulvy, RK Colwell, NJ Holbrook, EA Fulton, D Slawinski, M Feng, GJ Edgar, BT Radford, PA Thompson and RA Watson, 2014: Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems. Global Environmental Change, 26, 27-38.

Thank you Neil for your recently published paper:

Bates AE, GT Pecl, S Frusher, AJ Hobday, T Wernberg, DA Smale, JM Sunday, NA Hill, NK Dulvy, RK Colwell, NJ Holbrook, EA Fulton, D Slawinski, M Feng, GJ Edgar, BT Radford, PA Thompson and RA Watson, 2014: Defining and observing stages of climate-mediated range shifts in marine systems. Global Environmental Change, 26, 27-38.

My pleasure.

Shifting of species from the valleys and mid-altitudes to the higher elevation due to warming climate is a true story in the Himalayan Region. The major impact of warming climate on distribution of fruits and forests can be noticed everywhere in this region. A case study shows that nut fruits, apples and pears were grown during the summer season largely above 1200 m altitude in the past. But now, the apples have disappeared completely upto the elevation of 1800 m. Similarly, citrus fruits including lemon, elephant citrus, mandarin and orange were grown at the elevation above 800 m have now disappeared. They can be seen growing sparsely above 1600 m. The cultivation of nut fruits – peach, nut and almond have also shifted to the higher elevation greatly.

Changes in the distribution pattern of forests were simultaneously noticed in the Himalayan region. Diversity in the floral species is dominated by three forest types namely- pine, oak and evergreen coniferous forest. Pine is grown between 700 m and 1600 m, oak forest has been extended from 1600 m to 2200 m and evergreen coniferous forest has been spread from 2200 m to about 2800 m. After 2800 m, alpine meadows are found. It is observed that pine forests have been shifted above 1600 m and they have invaded the oak forest regime. Similarly, oak forests have been shifted to the higher elevation. In many oak dominating regions, oak forests have disappeared. Tree line has also shifted upward.

Dear Vishwambhar,

Interesting observations and research indeed!

I am interested to obtain further information related to shifting of species/disappearance of floral species (nut fruits, apples and pears, citrus fruit and pine, oak and evergreen coniferous forest) from the valleys and mid-altitudes in the Himalayan region due to climate change/global warming. Can you pls refer any paper/reports if you know related to disappearance and shifting of flora in the Himalayas?

Dear Golam,

Thank you very much for your positive response. In fact, there is no any specific paper published on shifting of floral species towards higher elevation in the Himalayan region. Rather, this is my personal observation as, I have been working in this region for the last three decades. Some observations related to this matter have been reported in the project reports. There is a book, 'Towards Sustainable Livelihoods and Ecosystems in Mountain Regions' published by Springer International Publishers' Germany, authored by me. This book is a case study of the Central Himalayan Region, also presents some discussions on changing farming system.

Dear Dr. Vishwambhar,

I completely agree with your view, there is indeed a range shift in the Himalayan flora and fauna. I am working on Blowflies and ants of the himalayan region and have observed the shift. Many tropical species have now occupied the lower and the middle ranges of Himalaya. The change in temperature is the major factor, and habitat loss is the other.

There are two international working groups that might have information on plant and animal elevation range shifts in response to global climate change - CIRMOUNT and GLORIA. Connie Miller of the USDA Forest Service is infolved in both groups ([email protected]) or google CIRMOUNT and climate change.

Ian,

I don't know what kind of system you are dealing with, but I offer the following thought from my perspective as a marine ecologist on the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. Low latitude marine species tend to shift more quickly our coast because their means of dispersal is south-to-north: the Gulf Stream. Over the years we've often seen small numbers of tropical / sub-tropical species (shrimps, crabs, fish) in some years, but not in others. The hypothesis is that the Gulf Stream carries up larval forms from further south, they settle and develop to maturity in warmer years, then disappear during colder ones. As winters become less severe on a regular basis, they begin to persist in our temperate climate system, starting at the southern (equatorward) end of our biogeographic zone. It gets a bit more complicated because while the Gulf Stream brings in southern species offshore, the "cool pool" countercurrent brings down larvae of cold water species in the nearshore region from New England and the Canadian maritime region. In any case, the dynamic exchange of species is very much controlled by the physical means of dispersal, which are strongly skewed toward the lower-to-higher latitude direction.

I just would like to take Ian's question regarding species in general, to focus specifically on arthropods. Does anyone have information on this?

Eduardo,

You may be interested in three papers I read recently:

Andrew, N.R & Hughes, L (2004) Species diversity and structure of phytophagous beetle assemblages along a latitudinal gradient: predicting the potential impacts of climate change. Ecological Entomology 29:527-542.

Kiritani, K. (2006) Predicting impacts of global warming in population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan. Population Ecology 48:5012.

Andrew, N.R. & Hughes, L. (2009) Arthropod community structure along a latitudinal gradient: Implications for future impacts of climate change. Austral Ecology 30:281-297.

Nice input Charles, Thanks a lot. Cheers.

Eduardo,

I've come across a number of papers relating to arthropods while reviewing some of the literature on the relationship of soil microbes to elevation and potential impacts of climate change. Here are four more:

Bale, J.S. & Hayward S.A.L. (2010) Insect overwintering in a changing climate. Journal of Experimental Biology 213:980-994.

Musolin, D.L. (2007) Insects in a warmer world: ecological, physiological and life-history responses of true bugs (Heteroptera) to climate change. Global Change Biology 13:1565-1585.

Cudmore, T.J. et al. (2010) Climate change and range expansion of an aggressive bark beetle: evidence of higher beetle reproduction in naive host tree populations. Journal of Applied Ecology 47:1036-1043.

Robinet, C. & Roques, A. (2010) Direct impacts of recent climate warming on insect populations. Integrative Zoology 5:132-142.

To date (unless I have missed something), not a single case of latitudinal range shift has been documented for a terrestrial species with a range confined to the tropics.  In contrast, a growing number of studies have shown elevational range shifts within the tropics. Meanwhile, many latitudinal (and elevational) shifts have been documented at temperate and higher latitudes, most tracking cooler temperatures, but some tracking precipitation. Why the difference?  Mean annual temperature varies little with latitude between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn, so there is basically nowhere to go but uphill, for a lowland, equatorial species.  The paper that Hamadi Dulle cited discusses this prediction:

Colwell, R. K., G. Brehm, C. Cardelús, A. C. Gilman, and J. T. Longino. 2008. Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322:258-261.

See also:

Feeley, K. J., and M. R. Silman. 2010. Biotic attrition from tropical forests correcting for truncated temperature niches. Global Change Biology 16:1830-1836.

For a recent synthesis of temperature tolerance data (from experiments) for ectotherms, over both latitudinal and elevational gradients, see:

Sunday, J. M., A. E. Bates, M. R. Kearney, R. K. Colwell, N. K. Dulvy, J. T. Longino, and R. B. Huey. 2014. Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111:5610-5615.

For a review of range shifts, see:

Chen, I., J. K. Hill, R. Ohlemüller, D. B. Roy, and C. D. Thomas. 2011. Range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333:1024-1026.

You have lots of interesting answers already so i wont add to that, but I thought many people on this thread may be interested in this conference, coming up in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia in February 2016 - called 'Species on the Move' and focusing on many aspects of species range shifts.