https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqzcCfUglws
The above is a link to the speech.
This is a link to a well-written summary:
https://neilkakkar.com/Psychology-of-Human-Misjudgment.html
At the risk of over-statement this is one the most interesting talks I've ever heard or read about. It is about the psychology of misjudgment.