https://www.researchgate.net/project/Long-Term-Research-Project-LTRP-EbA-South

Thank you, dear colleagues, for these precious documents which are very useful in understanding the issue and supporting the discussion.

I really appreciated the content of the colleague's Bahadur Gurung project: this is another example of the ancestral adaptation of the Nepalese people to different bioclimatic floors, this time in height in relation to the mountainous configuration of this breathtaking region of beauty.

I would like to challenge colleague Kelman who has provided us with valuable works on resilience to risks including their relationship to climate change.

Thank you dear colleage for these discussion

Thank you Colleague Ouhamdouch,

It is indeed a rather intriguing subject that gives rise to research efforts that are totally out of step with the realities on the ground. These research efforts are being made because they are supported by internationally funded research programs that are vital for research teams in the Southern Mediterranean. I recently attended restitution of research work carried out within the framework of consortia of research teams including Tunisian teams on the impacts of climate change on water resources. One of the themes is the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge. An interesting subject you might say but, in my opinion, surreal if one considers the catastrophic situation of the state of exploitation and degradation of water resources in the countries of the southern Mediterranean. Once again, I cite the Tunisian example and we can transpose: Most of the groundwater is subject to disastrous overexploitation leading to drawdowns and irreversible degradation of resources. Some aquifers are exploited at more than 250% of the average recharge rate and the oases of the South draw on very weakly renewable “fossil” aquifers to produce dates sold at prices ranging between $ 1 and $ 3 (approximately 8 m3 of water are required to produce 1 kg of dates) [1]. Coastal aquifers in the Cap-Bon region are stressed to such an extent that marine intrusion has, in some cases, resulted in the definitive degradation of the resource. These waters are used in the production of citrus fruits sold at less than $ 1 per kg. If the decision-makers and the scientific community do not put urgently all their human and material resources and all the scientific and technical means, to solve this nagging problem; well, the time needed to define and put in place measures of resilience and adaptation to the hypothetical effects of climate change on groundwater recharge will be more than enough for the squandering of these resources to be total and definitive as it is already the case of certain coastal aquifers.

[1](4) National Water Security, Case Study of an Arid Country: Tunisia | Request PDF (researchgate.net)

Dear All,

Let's for a moment leave this climate-septic versus climate alarmist quarrel, that we're not going to resolve now, and let's, as non-climato-septic, consider that the increase in global temperature is 1.5 °C over a century.

So what?

What are general environmental goals in tackling Climate Change? What should be done? Where? When? In which order? on whom should we place responsibility in Green-House-Effect? who shall pay, if any? And correlatively: what are in general global environmental issues priorities in ensuring better sustainability and better future for the earth?

I look forward to reading your reactions

Happy Holidays, and Happy New Year 2022

Dear Dr Jamel Chahed . I agree with Dr Ilan Kelman .

To fuel the discussion I am posting this well-known graph on CO2 emission which is of remarkable relevance and clarity for these raisons.

1. CO2 emissions are broken down into specific per capita values, which immediately shows that per capita CO2 footprints are much larger in developed and/or rich countries than in developing and/or poor countries. This raises the fundamental question relating to which ctégories of countries should be held responsible for the effects of global warming.

2. The countries or regions are broken down in population so that the relative CO2 emissions are only the areas of the rectangles calculated as the product (Population X emissions per capita) which gives the areas of the colored rectangles.

3. The surface of the rectangle China (in blue) is the highest: it is the emissions of China that weigh the most on the planet even if the emissions per Chinese inhabitant represent only half of the emissions of a North American or an Arabic-Saoudian.

4. The poorest countries (India & all countries in Africa, for example) have very low levels of emissions per inhabitant but relatively large populations. There are three solutions so that these regions do not become like China today (large population and relatively high per capita emissions) (i) Reduce populations, (ii) keep them in underdevelopment and poverty, (iii ) help them develop sustainable economies from the environmental point of view, by making the polluters of yesteryear pay according to the polluter pays principle. Solution (i) is totally irrelevant, solution (ii) is morally unacceptable, only solution (iii) is, in my opinion, human and capable of representing a prospect of solutions for a better future for the planet.

Dear all,

By closely examining the outputs of the IPCC models, one may invoke Decartes's passage from the first meditation "but what! they are" ..... "models"!

Graph: Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature (GMST). (a) Simulations and projections of annual mean GMST 1986–2050 (anomalies relative to 1986–2005). Projections under all RCPs from CMIP5 models (grey and coloured lines, one ensemble member per model), with four observational estimates (Hadley Centre/Climate Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set 4 (HadCRUT4): Morice et al., 2012); European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) interim reanalysis of the global atmosphere and surface conditions (ERA-Interim): Simmons et al., 2010); Goddard Institute of Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP): Hansen et al., 2010); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Smith et al., 2008)) for the period 1986–2012 (black lines).

Source: Kirtman, B., S.B. Power, J.A. Adedoyin, G.J. Boer, R. Bojariu, I. Camilloni, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A.M. Fiore, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, M. Prather, A. Sarr, C. Schär, R. Sutton, G.J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi and H.J. Wang, 2013: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

• 293.37 KBIPCC-Models.png

Dear Readers, I found the following paper (in French) to be remarkably relevant to the debates raised by the climate issue. I have therefore translated it for you and attached the original paper in French. Science is not fuzzy, by Etienne Ghys (a) and Ghislain de Marsily (b) 2020, (a) Permanent Secretary of the First Division, Academy of Sciences, France, (b) Editor-in-Chief, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Academy of Sciences, France.

A recent article in the newspaper Liberation headlined “Les savants flous”. The image of science in the public has been considerably disrupted by the Covid epidemic. Suddenly, in the space of a few weeks, the world realized that science is not only made of certainties. Worse still, experts of all kinds, including some eminent scientists, have presented conflicting views.

For several decades, science had had a bad press and many evils were attributed to it, often irrationally: GMOs, nuclear energy, vaccines, etc. But we still believed in scientific truth: scientists, sometimes seen as sorcerer's apprentices, developed theories that were certainly indisputable but whose applications could sometimes go against the public good. And now disagreements between scientists are coming to light!

However, scientists know it well: research has always been made up of debates between different opinions, which tend towards a form of truth that has never really been achieved. There are countless examples of quarrels in all the sciences. In physics, the debate raged in the 19th century at the Academy of Sciences around the existence of atoms.

In biology, it is the theory of evolution or the microbes that have been questioned. In earth science, plate tectonics has taken a very long time long before being accepted in the 1960s, and the origin of global warming was until very recently the subject of heated debate. Even mathematical science, though considered the temple of truth, is not exempt from such questions and has had to refine the concept of truth.

The Pythagorean Theorem is true in the Euclidean geometry that we teach at school but becomes false in the hyperbolic geometry widely used today in mathematical research. In each discipline, the word "true" has an extremely precise meaning, well known to specialists, but which must be explained to the neophyte. Newton's theory of gravitation was superseded by Einstein's theory of relativity, but it remains nonetheless true and useful in countless situations, just as modern theories of gravitation specify Einstein’s. Of course, we should not conclude that scientific truth is relative and that its conclusions are not solid. The theory of evolution, plate tectonics, or the warming of our planet will never again be questioned: these are established and now indisputable facts.

The points under discussion are “new” facts, such as the appearance of a virus, which will subsequently turn into “scientific truth” after going through an often constructive controversy. It is on the research front that struggles and discussions take place. At the back, the land is secure and that's good!

Scientists bear a great deal of responsibility for this distorted image of their disciplines. Most often, they are careful not to show their disagreements publicly and they do not explain only rarely the scientific method, made of trial and error. They like to show off successes and hide the torturous paths they have taken to get there. Textbooks tell the glory

of a Le Verrier who discovered the planet Neptune in the 19th century "with the tip of his pen", as Arago said, by making calculations of celestial mechanics, but they forget to say that the same Le Verrier, driven on his momentum, has subsequently “discovered” another planet. . .which does not exist (and which he had even baptized Vulcan)! It is true that, very slowly, the scientific community has become aware of the need for the dissemination of science, not only as a list of magnificent results but also as a set of hypotheses and provisional conclusions which are in the process of being validated. , sometimes contradictory. In a way, the little Coronavirus is like the child in Andersen's tale who cries that the king is naked: the epidemic has suddenly forced scientists to unveil themselves and publicly show the complexity of their world. It's a shame because science in the making is even more beautiful and exciting when it is laid bare.

The question of climate is analogous, but on a different time scale. It took the French three weeks to understand what an epidemic, a virus, or a zoonosis is, but it took them thirty years to understand what global warming and the greenhouse effect are. Debates among climatologists have been fierce, and when the public reads it, they often conclude that the science is decidedly fuzzy, unable to predict the future, and the experts disagree. Here again, scientists have a share of the responsibility. They have only rarely been able to explain the complexity of the issues, the large number of indisputable truths, but also the non-definitive character of certain conclusions being discussed. The media tends to overlook consensus and love to highlight disagreements.

If there were no science, we would have become aware of global warming only too late. This is only an increase of a few fractions of a degree each year, immersed in the midst of larger, essentially random temperature variations: the phenomenon only becomes noticeable in the long term. If the thermometer had not been invented, who could have said with certainty that it is warmer today than it was a hundred years ago? Science played the role of whistleblower, before the disaster.

The symposium “Facing climate change, the field of possibilities” is an attempt to remedy this problem. It is a question of offering the public an inventory of what is acquired and solid, but also of what is being done, and what should be done in the future to avoid the worst. It is not easy because the functioning of the Earth system is extremely complex and its understanding involves almost all the sciences: physics, meteorology, climatology, thermodynamics, astronomy, chemistry, geology, biology, without forgetting mathematics, always useful and necessary. Each of these sciences operates on its own time and space scales. Geology with its millions of years, climatology with hundreds of years, or meteorology for which we speak rather of days. The units of space are also very varied, from thousands of kilometers to microscopic sizes, for example for the physics of clouds. All this interacts in complicated ways and is certainly not easy to explain to the general public. We are a long way from the science of Galileo, easy to understand, which makes it possible to predict with precision the time it takes a pebble to fall from the top of the Tower of Pisa. Today, we can easily predict the position of the Moon in a thousand years to a few meters, but we have understood that such precision would be illusory if it were a question of a million years. In the same way, we can predict with a very good probability if it will rain tomorrow, but it is almost impossible to know if it will rain in a month. What will the climate be like in fifty years? It is this complexity, combining certainties and probabilities, that is difficult to convey to the general public.

It is also a question for scientists of making known the risks revealed by their research, knowing that this notion of risk necessarily borders on that of uncertainty. Uncertainty is not ignorance, but the recognition of a variety of possible futures, the importance of which is assessed by relation to the vulnerability of the ecological, economic and social systems that may be affected. This duty to alert, which affects a very wide range of situations in our daily lives, can therefore here take extremely precise forms.

The issue is important. The scientific community has a duty to communicate the state of knowledge to the public, emphasizing both well-established facts and issues that remain unresolved or are the subject of debate. The difficulty of the work and diagnosis of researchers does not exempt them from the duty of citizenship that everyone must fulfill to the extent of their skills. This duty is enshrined in our Constitution, via the precautionary principle.

Once the public has been informed of the situation by the scientists, it is up to society as a whole, represented by its elected officials, to make decisions. Elected officials must also consider other elements, of an economic or ethical nature, for example. This was illustrated very clearly recently during the confinement imposed on the population: science can only be one of the arguments used by politicians. This may be only one of the arguments, but it is essential.

Dear Readers, Nobel Prize 2021 in Physics recognized research on Complex Systems and Climate Modeling. Complex Systems are characterized by randomness and disorder and are difficult to understand. Earth’s climate is an archetype of Complex Systems. Three Laureates were awarded: 1. Syukuro Manabe initiated In the 1960s, the development of physical models of the Global Circulation of Atmosphere, the ancestor of Earth’s climate models. “The idea that you can take something so complex as the climate system and code the equations that govern it and put them in a computer and use that to simulate the climate system started with him,” said Vecchi, who is deputy director of Princeton’s Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System. 2. Klaus Hasselmann created a model that links together weather and climate. He also developed methods for identifying specific signals, that both natural phenomena and human activities imprint in the climate. Laying the foundation of our knowledge of the Earth’s climate and how humans influence it. 3. Giorgio Parisi a theoretical physicist, whose research has focused on quantum field theory, statistical mechanics, and complex systems. Awarded "for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales." NobelPrize.org

Dear Readers, Material to fuel the discussion: Adaptation & Resilience concern first and foremost Water Security; Genesis and growth of the Water Security concept:

Water resources, essential for life and economic development, are inextricably linked to the prosperity and welfare of individuals and populations. Water may in return constitute a direct factor of insecurity or peace deterioration through its potential of tensions outbreak, conflicts, and disputes, especially as a substantial portion of surface water and groundwater is shared by two or more communities or nations. Consequently, the balanced relationship between close communities or neighboring nations is closely linked to the efficiency of local regulations, national laws, international agreements, which allow equitable access to shared water resources.

Today, the international community in its various manifestations has always regarded access to water and its equitable sharing as a factor of stability and peace throughout the world. In addition, water is intimately linked to environmental issues, which are increasingly recognized as a major concern for the international community. At the national level, the implementation of water safety is the responsibility of the authorities. They are called upon to develop appropriate policies, laws, and regulations, and to allocate the necessary budgets for the implementation of strategies and programs to improve water security.

Measurement of the level of water safety has fueled abundant literature. The debate was initiated by applying an agronomic concept to human needs: for a given country, the indicator of "water stress" (Falkenmark et al., 1989) represents the threshold of renewable water resources per inhabitant, available for domestic, industrial, agricultural and environmental needs. Other researchers have developed water stress indices that are better able to characterize actual pressure on water resources, taking into account the current water withdrawals. However, while these two conceptions of water stress (per capita water availability and resource harvesting rates) reflect anthropogenic pressure on the resource, they do not reflect the importance of the quantities that are effectively consumed, and the share released into the natural environment is likely to be recycled into the water resource. Similarly, the water stress indicators do not concern the water resource involved in rainfed agriculture and that used by natural vegetation (green water), which can represent much more important quantities than the surface and underground water resources employed across the country (blue water).

Source: Book National Water Security, Case Study of an Arid Country: Tunisia

Dear Readers, Material to fuel the discussion:water security as an international issue

The international community action in the area of environment and water management is important at both the cognitive and institutional levels. In this regard, the UNESCO's (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) "Arid Zone Hydrology" program can be regarded as the precursor of the scientific globalization of water issues. On the other hand international conferences, forums summits, conventions contributed to the formulation of institutional frameworks, strengthening national capacities and implementation of water management programs.

The work of M. Batisse (2005) brings a remarkable historical light on UNESCO's contribution to the progress of water knowledge and water vision. In 1948, the General Conference in Beirutrecommended the establishment of an international institute for the arid zone, which evolved into a "Research Advisory Committee on Arid Zone". In 1951, is born the Arid Zone Program of UNESCO, in which the issue of water resources occupied a prominent place. The first visible result of the program was held in 1952 with the Ankara Conference, the first global scientific meeting on the Hydrology of Arid Zone. The Hydrology was then a major scientific project of UNESCO, by which the international scientific community would contribute to the solution of concrete population problems.

Thus emerged the will to "encourage the establishment of more numerous database on water resources, and foster international exchange of information and experience acquired in this field". And in 1960 UNESCO put the Water Security issue to the agenda of its fields of interest, "seriously worrying the enormous difficulty in meeting water needs, both domestic and industrial, a rapidly growing world population ; emphasizing the global nature of the water resources issue and the lack of knowledge on the subject".

This concern was materialized by a resolution aimed at developing international collaborative research and training programs in the field of scientific hydrology, appointing a commission of experts, whose reporter was Lassâad Ben Osman, the Tunisian reporter of the Arid zone Advisory Committee, to develop an Action Program. This initiative found its culmination with the launch of the “International Hydrological Decade”: 1964-1974, followed by the International Hydrological Program (IHP) and its different phases.

The Decade constituted a formidable promotional movement for Hydrology, in the triple field: operational, scientific and cognitive. At its start, it was realized very quickly that there was a lack of water experts and hydrologists : unprecedented efforts were then made by UNESCO authorities to initiate training at all levels. The start of the Decade corresponded with the arrival on the scene, with the national independences, of all young people and new generations of hydrologists, promoting their professional and scientific development by mixing of experiences which accompanied this first scientific globalization enterprise.

One of the relevant issues, concerning both the advancement of knowledge on arid zone hydrology and decisive changes in the mode of groundwater exploitation in water scarce regions, was the launching, under the aegis of UNESCO, of the Project for the Study of Water Resources of the Northern Sahara (ERESS) comment en Anglais ?, which constituted the first attempt of knowledge and common management, by Algeria and Tunisia, of a very large transboundary aquifer system. The completion in 1972 of the project impulses methodological and practical decisive breakthrough in the understanding of water security in the Saharaarid regions.

As for the International Hydrological Program (IHP), it still constitutes the only intergovernmental program devoted to research in the field of water, management of water resources, education and capacity building. This program is being implemented in phases of six years, allowing it to evolve according to the needs of a changing world.

(7) (PDF) National Water Security, Case Study of an Arid Country: Tunisia (researchgate.net)

Dear Readers, Material to fuel the discussion: On the adaptation of Tunisian olive groves to bioclimatic conditions:

The olive tree has been cultivated in Tunisia since Roman times under different bioclimatic conditions in exclusively rainfed groves: in the south with less than 250 mm of rainfall and in the north with more than 600 mm [1]. Apart from the different olive tree species in each of the regions, it is clear that the density of olive trees is strictly correlated with rainfall, ranging from 16 olive trees per hectare in the South to nearly a hundred olive trees per hectare in the North; so that it is possible to faithfully superimpose the density map of olive trees on the map of isohyets. Empirically, over millennia and outside of any protocol or procedure, the peasants have naturally adapted to the natural conditions of the environment and it is difficult to imagine that things can be otherwise.

Source:

Chapter Sécurité hydrique et sécurité alimentaire dans la région de ...

Investment into resilience can align with sustainable development goals, improving quality of life, stimulating the economy, and protecting the environment while safeguarding areas against the onset of climate change. Resilience is the ability of a system to absorb, withstand and bounce back after an adverse event. https://www.eesi.org/topics/adaptation-resilience/description

Adaptation refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. It involves changes in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change. On the other hand, Climate resilience is the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to hazardous events, trends, or disturbances related to climate. Improving climate resilience involves assessing how climate change will create new, or alter current, climate-related risks, and taking steps to better cope with these risks. https://unfccc.int/topics/adaptation-and-resilience/the-big-picture/what-do-adaptation-to-climate-change-and-climate-resilience-mean

https://www.c2es.org/content/climate-resilience-overview/

Your discussion above seems to support the evolution theory which states that species tend to adapt to changing environment.

Dear Chinaza Godswill Awuchi Thank you for your contribution and for reminders on the fundamental definitions of the concepts. Is it also useful to ask the question: At what time scale should we consider the priority measures to be implemented in order to ensure the protection of natural resources and guarantee their sustainability? (i) direct and urgent measures associated with the modes of exploitation and development of resources; (ii) indirect and very long-term implications of Climate Change on the potential of resources. Has everything been done on (i) to decree that it is urgent to tackle (ii) head-on with all its uncertainties, particularly with regard to time scales involved, incompatible with the scales of concrete actions?

Dear Kiprotich Kiptum Stating priorities may lead to support the evolution theory. Indeed, Is it absurd to assume, like for the evolution of species and their adaptations to natural changes of all kinds, that adaptations and resilience to the effects of climate change should readjust themselves, to changes in natural conditions, which by definition are very slow and loaded with uncertainties?

Dear Readers, Material to fuel the discussion: On the Temporal Paradox: This paradox is also known as "Grand Father Paradox". The latter gets its name for a very simple question: "what would happen to you if you went back in time and killed your grandfather before he had offspring?" (Parodied by Futurama; see example in Stable Time Loop)

More generally, this means doing something that makes your time travel impossible or unnecessary. For instance, if success in the time travel endeavor means that the condition you set out to change never happens, then you won't ever have had any reason to come back and try to change it. Thus, without your intervention, it will happen after all, meaning you then must go back to change it, meaning you don't have to, meaning you have to, and so on, ad infinitum.

Most cases of Mental Time Travel sidestep or ignore the grandfather paradox. See more on:

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TemporalParadox

To me what I think is needed is the same zeal, power and will by the people of the earth to fight loss of biodiversity. By doing this the issues of climate change can be tackled. This will entail re-instating lost habitats.

Material to fuel the discussion: Chronology protection conjecture

The chronology protection conjecture is a conjecture first proposed by Stephen Hawking which hypothesizes that the laws of physics are such as to prevent time travel on all but submicroscopic scales. The permissibility of time travel is represented mathematically by the existence of closed timelike curves in some exact solutions to General Relativity. The chronology protection conjecture should be distinguished from chronological censorship under which every closed timelike curve passes through an event horizon, which might prevent an observer from detecting the causal violation (also known as chronology violation).

For detailed: See the essential paper of S. W. Hawking :

Chronology protection conjecture, Phys. Rev. D 46, 603 – Published 15 July 1992

Water security as an international issue, Source: Chapter On the Water Security Concept State of the Art

The work of Batisse (2005) brings a remarkable historical light on UNESCO's contribution to the progress of water knowledge and water vision. In 1948, the General Conference in Beirutrecommended the establishment of an international institute for the arid zone, which evolved into a "Research Advisory Committee on Arid Zone". In 1951, is born the Arid Zone Program of UNESCO, in which the issue of water resources occupied a prominent place. The first visible result of the program was held in 1952 with the Ankara Conference, the first global scientific meeting on the Hydrology of Arid Zone. The Hydrology was then a major scientific project of UNESCO, by which the international scientific community would contribute to the solution of concrete population problems.

Thus emerged the will to "encourage the establishment of more numerous databases on water resources, and foster international exchange of information and experience acquired in this field". And in 1960 UNESCO put the Water Security issue to the agenda of its fields of interest, "seriously worrying the enormous difficulty in meeting water needs, both domestic and industrial, a rapidly growing world population ; emphasizing the global nature of the water resources issue and the lack of knowledge on the subject".

This concern was materialized by a resolution aimed at developing international collaborative research and training programs in the field of scientific hydrology, appointing a commission of experts, whose reporter was Lassâad Ben Osman, the Tunisian reporter of the Arid zone Advisory Committee, to develop an Action Program. This initiative found its culmination with the launch of the “International Hydrological Decade”: 1964-1974, followed by the International Hydrological Program (IHP) and its different phases.

The Decade constituted a formidable promotional movement for Hydrology, in the triple field: operational, scientific and cognitive. At its start, it was realized very quickly that there was a lack of water experts and hydrologists: unprecedented efforts were then made by UNESCO authorities to initiate training at all levels. The start of the Decade corresponded with the arrival on the scene, with the national independences, of all young people and new generations of hydrologists, promoting their professional and scientific development by mixing of experiences which accompanied this first scientific globalization enterprise.

One of the relevant issues, concerning both the advancement of knowledge on arid zone hydrology and decisive changes in the mode of groundwater exploitation in water scarce regions, was the launching, under the aegis of UNESCO, of the Northern Sahara Water Resources Study project (NSWRS), which constituted the first attempt of knowledge and common management, by Algeria and Tunisia, of a very large transboundary aquifer system. The completion of the project, in 1972, impulsed methodological and practical decisive breakthrough in the understanding of water security in the Sahara arid regions.

As for the International Hydrological Program (IHP), it still constitutes the only intergovernmental program devoted to research in the field of water, management of water resources, education and capacity building. This program is being implemented in phases of six years, allowing it to evolve according to the needs of a changing world.

Water and the international conferences

The International Conference on "Water for Peace", held in Washington in 1967, marked the beginning of international cooperation in the water sector, noting that water issues can only be addressed by an approach that goes beyond individual nations and that it is therefore necessary to develop exchange of knowledge, experiences and information and to promote technology transfer, training and development of human resources in the field of water. But water is also concerned with issues relating to the environment. The first world meeting that has placed ecology at the international agenda was the UN Conference on the Human Environment held in Stockholm in 1972, which recognized the right to the environment as a "fundamental right".

In the wake of Stockholmwas held, in 1977 in Mar del Plata, the UN Conference on Water, dedicated to issues on assessment and use of water resources, and whose most striking result was the launch of the Decade for drinking water and sanitation. Proclaimed by the United Nations in 1981, the Decade has set an ambitious goal of ensuring all people access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by the year 1990. Despite significant positive results, the decade results remained below expectations: in 1990, 1.3 billion people lacked access to safe drinking water and 2.6 billion people did not enjoy adequate sanitation services. The end of the decade was marked by the organization of a meeting held in Montrealwhere hundreds of organizations concerned by a better distribution of water have adopted what would become the Charter of Montreal, which proclaims the right of access to drinking water as a basic human right. The Decade has raised awareness of the complexity of water-related projects and technical and financial difficulties associated with them: the financial reasons for the relative failure of the Decade reinforced the perception of the economic value of water dedicated at the Dublin Conference in 1992, which sets out the "Dublin principles".

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio in 1992 (Earth Summit) has contributed to deepen and strengthen the principles of governance and water resource management. The action plan adopted (Agenda 21) defined the guiding principles of management, where water is presented as "a natural resource and a social and economic good."

At the New York Millennium Summit in 2000, the international community pledged to achieve the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to reduce poverty by half by 2015. The 7th Goal entitled "Ensuring environmental sustainability" recommended among others things, to reduce by half the population without access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation.

Two years later stood the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburgin 2002, which called for the development of rational plans and integrated water resources management at various scales, while reaffirming the Millennium Development Goals. Halfway through the MDG deadline, the WHO 2008 report paints a mixed picture of the situation of water supply and sanitation equipment: MDG on access to clean water are about to be realized but with huge regional and local disparities. Of the 884 million people in 2008 who did not have access to improved sources of supply, 40% are in sub-Saharan Africa. The situation is more delicate for sanitation where 2.6 billion people still do not have improved sanitation and trends indicate that this figure is set to increase.

With the resolution of the UN General Assembly in July 2010, the right to water is formally recognized by the world's highest political authority. Non-binding, this resolution has no legal value, but is considered as having a moral value and an important historical fact. Now, the right of access to water principle is introduced into the World Heritage principles. It should eventually lead to strengthen commitments to greater water solidarity at the different scales: national, regional and international.

Drought prevention and management, Source: Chapter On the Water Security Concept State of the Art

Determining the impacts of droughts requires monitoring economic, social, and environmental indicators. The monitoring of hydroclimatic variables facilitates the announcement of drought and the initiation of adequate responses (Bargaoui, 2002); it is essential for drawing up balance sheets whose cartographic presentation constitutes one of the decision-making aid elements. In the USA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regularly supplies the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS[1]) with climate and hydrological data, which are available to the public. The NIDIS is itself managed by the National Drought Mitigation Center which disseminates a set of maps showing the state of the drought indicators as well as the forecast bulletins elaborated by the Center.

Drought management has two dimensions: crisis management and long-term management. The setting up of observatories with monitoring and assessment functions for the environmental, economic, and social impact of droughts is a basic tool for stakeholders. FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System, FAO's GIEWS[2], are currently effective means of predicting and assessing drought in the international community.

[1] https://www.drought.gov/drought/what-nidis , consulted 2017, Jan.15

[2]http://www.fao.org/es/giews/english/index.htm , consulted 2017, Jan.15

To fuel the discussion: The effects of climate change for the next century are fairly well predicted as far as temperature is concerned. The hydrologic effects are much more uncertain. Nevertheless, the current prediction is that the temperature increase will generate a significant acceleration of the water cycle, with more evaporation. The global rainfall will thus increase, but its spatial distribution is much more uncertain. Read more on: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226652110_Changing_Water_Resources_and_Food_Supply_in_Arid_Zones_Tunisia [accessed Mar 29 2022].

The Green Revolution, because it is intensive, faces, almost everywhere in the world, the limits of water and soil resources, particularly in arid countries. The Challenge is: A new green revolution is more necessary than ever, one that changes the water paradigm. See references within the project: https://www.researchgate.net/project/The-Holistic-Water-Balance-Blue-Green-Virtual-Water This issue is also discussed on:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Water_Footprint_Water_Colors_Blue_Water_Green_Water_Grey_Water_Virtual_Water?_ec=topicPostOverviewAuthoredQuestions&_sg=iBqrYhMeOpt8xH6DTzC_RzqDIMc-ggyWauXMBUWJdhaVGYGv9nHpRG03phkYzMemGhELPunGcyfB8OlP

Dear researchers, I had in my hands the chapter "Hydrological Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Northern Tunisian Headwater Catchments—An Ensemble Approach Addressing Uncertainties, January 2022, In book: Climate Change in the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Region" The chapter can be requested on:Chapter Hydrological Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Northern...

I thank the authors: a quality work that is in line with the applications, this one rigorous, of the outputs of the CC models and their hydrological impacts. Congratulations to our colleague Hammouda Dakhlaoui and to all the authors and looking forward to content discussions

Greenhouse effect due to CO2 emissions is one of the most important research topics related to Climate Change as it involves the hole of the Carbon Cycle including anthropogenic emissions. The Good News is that regular observations made since 1998 showed that over the last 40 years, the concentrations of CO2 in Antarctic bottom waters had increased on average and that this increase was mainly explained by the absorption of CO2 of anthropogenic origin. This scientic finding has been acheived within the framework of the OISO (American campaign GEOSECS and French campaign INDIGO), researchers from the LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory. See:

https://www.insu.cnrs.fr/fr/cnrsinfo/stabilite-surprenante-des-concentrations-de-co2-anthropique-dans-les-eaux-de-fond-de

Through its ability to absorb more than 90% of the excess heat energy in the atmosphere due to global warming and around 25 to 30% of the CO2 emitted by human activities, the ocean plays a crucial role in regulating the weather. The Southern Ocean alone accumulates about 40% of all anthropogenic CO2 accumulated in the global ocean. In particular, the cold, dense waters that form and sink around the Antarctic continent can carry anthropogenic CO2 from the surface down to the Antarctic bottom waters that line all ocean basins and have the ability to sustainably sequester it.

The following very recent study aimed to develop a model for medium-term forecasting of water inflow for planning electricity generation for a week in advance in isolated power systems based on meteorological data of inflow in Yashilkul Lake. "Adaptive ensemble models for medium-term forecasting of water inflow when planning electricity generation under climate change." Energy Reports 8 (2022): 439-447. Available on:

Article Adaptive ensemble models for medium-term forecasting of wate...

New perspectives coming from in Fluid Mechanics would boost data-divinen approaches in the parameterization of CGMs and ESMs models. Applying machine learning to study fluid mechanics, January 2022Acta Mechanica Sinica.

Abstract: his paper provides a short overview of how to use machine learning to build data-driven models in fluid mechanics. The process of machine learning is broken down into five stages: (1) formulating a problem to model, (2) collecting and curating training data to inform the model, (3) choosing an architecture with which to represent the model, (4) designing a loss function to assess the performance of the model, and (5) selecting and implementing an optimization algorithm to train the model. At each stage, we discuss how prior physical knowledge may be embedding into the process, with specific examples from the field of fluid mechanics. Available on:

Article Applying machine learning to study fluid mechanics

In the same vein as my previous post: a very recent research on Implementation of artificial deep neural networks (ANN) on outputs of real case Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs, carried out over two high‐resolution simulation model domains. "Preliminary results on estimation of signal fading on telecommunication satellite telemetry signals with hybrid numerical weather prediction and artificial neural network approach under presence of aerosol effect, April 2022, International Journal of Satellite Communications and Networking. To be requested on:Article Preliminary results on estimation of signal fading on teleco...

This is an essential paper on the Phenomenical analysis and modeling of long-term paleoclimatic changes and their effects on the physical properties and distribution of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) and the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). Evolution of the deep Atlantic water masses since the last glacial maximum based on a transient run of NCAR‑CCSM3, August 2016, Climate Dynamics 47(3-4). Abstract:...In this study, we present the evolution of the physical properties and distribution of the AABW and the NADW since the last glacial maximum using the results of a transient simulation with NCAR-CCSM3. In this particular model scenario with a schematic freshwater forcing, we find that modern NADW, with its characteristic salinity maximum at depth, was absent in the beginning of the deglaciation, while its intermediate version—Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW)—was being formed.... Available on:Article Evolution of the deep Atlantic water masses since the last g...

TUNISIA: Publication of the study "Contribution to the elements of the preparatory phase of the National Adaptation Plan process". This is a contribution to the preparation of Tunisia's National Adaptation Plan (NAP) for food security. The study was funded by the Adapt’Action Facility (AFD). We will endeavor to present the components of this important study: to be continued.

Interesting findings on the climate change effect on the tropical forest distribution founded, by extension, on a minitious analysis of the biogeographical history of the Mauriitinae palm: "Climate and geological change as drivers of Mauritiinae palm biogeography, March 2021, Journal of Biogeography 48(5). Available on: Article Climate and geological change as drivers of Mauritiinae palm...

TUNISIA: Publication of the study "Contribution to the elements of the preparatory phase of the National Adaptation Plan process". Analysis of the effects of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios 02 - 2020. Available on: https://cc-tunisie.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Analyse-des-effets-des-scenarios-CC-RCP-4.5-et-RCP-8.5.pdf

The objective of this part of the study is to complete and update the scientific knowledge available concerning "the major climatic risks of tomorrow as well as the levels of uncertainty surrounding these risks in Tunisia...it is based on an approach to quantifying the hazards linked to climate change in Tunisia and modeling their effects on the country's food security, focusing on three productions at the base of this security, namely cereal growing, olive growing and extensive livestock farming on rangeland.

The fisheries sector is also included in the scope of the analysis based in particular on the work currently being carried out in Tunisia by specialized scientific institutes and their technical partners.

TUNISIA: Publication of the study: "Contribution to the elements of the preparatory phase of the National Adaptation Plan process". National Transparency System in the field of adaptation to climate change in the spirit of Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. Available on: https://cc-tunisie.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FACTSHEET_Transparence-ACC-actualise-291121.pdf

TUNISIA: Publication of the study: "Contribution to the elements of the preparatory phase of the National Adaptation Plan process". Impacts of the effects of climate change on food security, December 2020. Available in french "Impacts des effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire Décembre 2020" on: https://cc-tunisie.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Presentation-des-Impacts-des-effets-du-CC-sur-la-securite-alimentaire.pdf

An editorial by Nies, S. (2022) presents relevant points of view on "New uncertainties and new paradigms for European energy and climate policy?. European Energy & Climate Journal, 11(1), 1-2."...Gas and oil from Russia have been a reality for Europe since the 1970s. Is this now coming to an end? Are we assisting the geopolitical change from East to West – Russian gas swapped for US shale gas? LNG terminals are to be developed, for the first time, in countries like Germany. Next winter will be tough – can we claim we will stop using Russian gas? Do we need to continue using coal to ensure our security of supply? Belgium has just extended the lifetime of two reactors by 10 years, and Germany will keep coal plants running. We see shops half empty, food prices surge, and energy becoming expensive and scarce. This is an unheard-of experience for Europeans. Our ignorance has become evident on the origin of our food. Who truly knew that such quantities of cereals, vegetables and fruits, but also fertilizer and many other products come not only from Ukraine, but also Russia? And should we have known, when the labels on products do not provide this information?

Will Russia turn to China, India and the East and sell its gas and oil to these nations? Are we witnessing new regional blocs emerge at this very moment?..."

Paper available on: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/eecj/11/1/article-p1.xml

This is a remarkable paper on the fundamental Water-Food Nexus and its relation to Climate change. Seen from this point of view the research presented focuses on the impact of Climate Change on Water and Food Security in China, putting also an emphasis on the effect of food habit change on the comprehensive water balance. "Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water security during the peak population period in China", December 2021, Agricultural Water Management 258(10113). To be requested on:Article Food habit and climate change impacts on agricultural water ...

Abstract: Rapid changes in food habits, climate, and population size are expected to substantially challenge the sustainable use of China’s agricultural water supply, undoubtedly increasing the uncertainty of China’s food security. This study analyzes the change characteristics of China’s food habits during 1981–2017, and the amount agricultural water for food production during peak population period (2029–2033) has also projected based on different food habits and climate scenarios. The results show that China’s food habits changed dramatically from mainly vegetable-dominated to animal-dominated during 1981–2017. Compared to the historical period (2013–2017), the decrease in precipitation and the increase in evapotranspiration in the peak population period will increase the drought degree in China’s thirteen main food producing provinces. During peak population period, the irrigation water demand will increase to 298.0–314.7 billion m³ under current food habits and 319.4–337.8 billion m³ under recommended food habits in different climate scenarios, respectively; these values are much higher than those of the historical period (e.g., 195.7 billion m³ in 2017). Moreover, compared with 2017, China’s future per capita irrigation water demand is expected to increase by 63.3–74.8 m³ due to climate change; if food habit changes are further adopted, then per capita irrigation water demand is expected to increase even more, by 77.9–90.5 m³. This study also proposes various measures to ensure China’s agricultural water security based on the presented findings.

See also:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/National_Water_Security_in_Water-Scarce_Countries

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_Water_Resources

The climate deals with complex systems whose functioning is comparable to that of a large living organism since it involves all the living components of the biosphere. It is a dynamic system that brings into play an infinity of Spatio-temporal scales within non-linear interactions. These evolutions cannot, in any case, lend themselves to analyzes that rely solely on the fixed laws of thermostatics. At our level as scientists, and particularly within ESM climate models developments, there is a need to disaggregate complexity into well-posed scientific questions, each of which can be represented as a building wall and the life's work of a researcher would be no more and no less than a "brick in the wall" Dixit Pink Floyd.

On complex systems: "Nobel Prize 2021 in Physics recognized research on Complex Systems and Climate Modeling. Complex Systems are characterized by randomness and disorder and are difficult to understand. Earth's climate is an archetype of Complex Systems. Three Laureates were awarded: 1. Syukuro Manabe initiated In the 1960s, the development of physical models of the Global Circulation of Atmosphere, the ancestor of Earth’s climate models. “The idea that you can take something so complex as the climate system and code the equations that govern it and put them in a computer and use that to simulate the climate system started with him,” said Vecchi, who is deputy director of Princeton's Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System. 2. Klaus Hasselmann created a model that links together weather and climate. He also developed methods for identifying specific signals, that both natural phenomena and human activities imprint in the climate. Laying the foundation of our knowledge of the Earth's climate and how humans influence it. 3. Giorgio Parisi a theoretical physicist, whose research has focused on quantum field theory, statistical mechanics, and complex systems. Awarded "for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales."

The controversy on Climate Change within the Scientific community in France

1. "Thesis" The Climatic Imposture: explained in this book by Allègre, Claude, and Dominique de Montvalon. L'imposture climatique. Plon, 2014. (In French) "This book returns to the issue of climate change, not as a real and close threat to our societies, but as a myth resulting from a conspiracy between science and politics. Indeed, the author, Claude Allègre, a recognized scientist in geochemistry, tackles the climate issue with the help of Dominique de Montvalon, journalist, who plays the role of his interlocutor in this book. Through a clever game of questions and answers, the duo unveils the machination that has been developed around a myth created from scratch – that of climate change in this case – in order to provide some with funding in order to pursue their research..."(Own traduction from French)

The controversy on Climate Change within the Scientific community in France

2. "Anti-Thesis" From Climatic Imposture to Sophism: defended in this paper by Godard, O. (2010). De l'imposture au sophisme, la science du climat vue par Claude Allègre, François Ewald et quelques autres. Esprit, (5), 26-43. "The last book of interviews by Claude Allègre published in February 2010 is a book denouncing a so-called climate imposture. The theory that greenhouse gas emissions due to human activity since the beginning of the industrial revolution are changing the climate of the planet, a theory whose premises were the work of nineteenth-century scientists such as Joseph Fourier or Svante Arrhenius, is presented as a myth without scientific foundation. It would even be a myth imposed on the international community following a seizure of power by a small group of unscrupulous men, greedy for fortune or glory, or carried away by a totalitarian ecological ideology – some scientists mafia, some political leaders including Olof Palme, Swedish socialist Prime Minister assassinated in 1986, and Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1979 to 1990, and some senior UN officials. This seizure of power would have no precedent, in the eyes of Allègre, than that of the Bolsheviks during the Russian revolution of 1917. (Own traduction from French) Available on: Article The fallacy of the imposture, the science of climate seen by...

The controversy on Climate Change within the Scientific community in France

3. "Synthesis" Science is not fuzzy: in this outstanding paper La Science n'est pas floue, by Etienne Ghys (a) and Ghislain de Marsily (b) 2020, (a) Permanent Secretary of the First Division, Academy of Sciences, France, (b) Editor-in-Chief, Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Academy of Sciences, France. (Own translation from French, attached original text in French) "A recent article in the newspaper Liberation headlined “Les savants flous”. The image of science in the public has been considerably disrupted by the Covid epidemic. Suddenly, in the space of a few weeks, the world realized that science is not only made of certainties. Worse still, experts of all kinds, including some eminent scientists, have presented conflicting views.

For several decades, science had had a bad press and many evils were attributed to it, often irrationally: GMOs, nuclear energy, vaccines, etc. But we still believed in scientific truth: scientists, sometimes seen as sorcerer's apprentices, developed theories that were certainly indisputable but whose applications could sometimes go against the public good. And now disagreements between scientists are coming to light!

However, scientists know it well: research has always been made up of debates between different opinions, which tend towards a form of truth that has never really been achieved. There are countless examples of quarrels in all the sciences. In physics, the debate raged in the 19th century at the Academy of Sciences around the existence of atoms.

In biology, it is the theory of evolution or the microbes that have been questioned. In earth science, plate tectonics has taken a very long time long before being accepted in the 1960s, and the origin of global warming was until very recently the subject of heated debate. Even mathematical science, though considered the temple of truth, is not exempt from such questions and has had to refine the concept of truth.

The Pythagorean Theorem is true in the Euclidean geometry that we teach at school but becomes false in the hyperbolic geometry widely used today in mathematical research. In each discipline, the word "true" has an extremely precise meaning, well known to specialists, but which must be explained to the neophyte. Newton's theory of gravitation was superseded by Einstein's theory of relativity, but it remains nonetheless true and useful in countless situations, just as modern theories of gravitation specify Einstein’s. Of course, we should not conclude that scientific truth is relative and that its conclusions are not solid. The theory of evolution, plate tectonics, or the warming of our planet will never again be questioned: these are established and now indisputable facts.

The points under discussion are “new” facts, such as the appearance of a virus, which will subsequently turn into “scientific truth” after going through an often constructive controversy. It is on the research front that struggles and discussions take place. At the back, the land is secure and that's good!

Scientists bear a great deal of responsibility for this distorted image of their disciplines. Most often, they are careful not to show their disagreements publicly and they do not explain only rarely the scientific method, made of trial and error. They like to show off successes and hide the torturous paths they have taken to get there. Textbooks tell the glory

of a Le Verrier who discovered the planet Neptune in the 19th century "with the tip of his pen", as Arago said, by making calculations of celestial mechanics, but they forget to say that the same Le Verrier, driven on his momentum, has subsequently “discovered” another planet. . .which does not exist (and which he had even baptized Vulcan)! It is true that, very slowly, the scientific community has become aware of the need for the dissemination of science, not only as a list of magnificent results but also as a set of hypotheses and provisional conclusions which are in the process of being validated. , sometimes contradictory. In a way, the little Coronavirus is like the child in Andersen's tale who cries that the king is naked: the epidemic has suddenly forced scientists to unveil themselves and publicly show the complexity of their world. It's a shame because science in the making is even more beautiful and exciting when it is laid bare.

The question of climate is analogous, but on a different time scale. It took the French three weeks to understand what an epidemic, a virus, or a zoonosis is, but it took them thirty years to understand what global warming and the greenhouse effect are. Debates among climatologists have been fierce, and when the public reads it, they often conclude that the science is decidedly fuzzy, unable to predict the future, and the experts disagree. Here again, scientists have a share of the responsibility. They have only rarely been able to explain the complexity of the issues, the large number of indisputable truths, but also the non-definitive character of certain conclusions being discussed. The media tends to overlook consensus and love to highlight disagreements.

If there were no science, we would have become aware of global warming only too late. This is only an increase of a few fractions of a degree each year, immersed in the midst of larger, essentially random temperature variations: the phenomenon only becomes noticeable in the long term. If the thermometer had not been invented, who could have said with certainty that it is warmer today than it was a hundred years ago? Science played the role of whistleblower, before the disaster.

The symposium “Facing climate change, the field of possibilities” is an attempt to remedy this problem. It is a question of offering the public an inventory of what is acquired and solid, but also of what is being done, and what should be done in the future to avoid the worst. It is not easy because the functioning of the Earth system is extremely complex and its understanding involves almost all the sciences: physics, meteorology, climatology, thermodynamics, astronomy, chemistry, geology, biology, without forgetting mathematics, always useful and necessary. Each of these sciences operates on its own time and space scales. Geology with its millions of years, climatology with hundreds of years, or meteorology for which we speak rather of days. The units of space are also very varied, from thousands of kilometers to microscopic sizes, for example for the physics of clouds. All this interacts in complicated ways and is certainly not easy to explain to the general public. We are a long way from the science of Galileo, easy to understand, which makes it possible to predict with precision the time it takes a pebble to fall from the top of the Tower of Pisa. Today, we can easily predict the position of the Moon in a thousand years to a few meters, but we have understood that such precision would be illusory if it were a question of a million years. In the same way, we can predict with a very good probability if it will rain tomorrow, but it is almost impossible to know if it will rain in a month. What will the climate be like in fifty years? It is this complexity, combining certainties and probabilities, that is difficult to convey to the general public.

It is also a question for scientists of making known the risks revealed by their research, knowing that this notion of risk necessarily borders on that of uncertainty. Uncertainty is not ignorance, but the recognition of a variety of possible futures, the importance of which is assessed by relation to the vulnerability of the ecological, economic and social systems that may be affected. This duty to alert, which affects a very wide range of situations in our daily lives, can therefore here take extremely precise forms.

The issue is important. The scientific community has a duty to communicate the state of knowledge to the public, emphasizing both well-established facts and issues that remain unresolved or are the subject of debate. The difficulty of the work and diagnosis of researchers does not exempt them from the duty of citizenship that everyone must fulfill to the extent of their skills. This duty is enshrined in our Constitution, via the precautionary principle.

Once the public has been informed of the situation by the scientists, it is up to society as a whole, represented by its elected officials, to make decisions. Elected officials must also consider other elements, of an economic or ethical nature, for example. This was illustrated very clearly recently during the confinement imposed on the population: science can only be one of the arguments used by politicians. This may be only one of the arguments, but it is essential.

The trouble is that all the money wasted on fighting the gas of life, CO2, that amounts to 90,000 billions$ as per the world bank, or up to 150,000 billions$ now according to latest estimates will have been wasted and will badly miss all development and adaptation strategies and policies required to adapt to climate change, mostly (at least 75%) of natural origin. Because there is no doubt that since the roman times, growing olive trees in Tunisia, has met varying conditions. Because the climate changed and many times over just a bit more than 2,000 years since Hannibal crossed the Alps end of Oct, when the roman empire collapsed with the cooling climate of the 500s CE, when Erik the Red went to the Green Land (985 CE), when the Brits were running fairs over the frozen Thames for decades during the solar minima, etc.

Anyway, thanks Jamel Chahed for providing me the incentive to revise my Chapter on the climate software models. I think it is much better now.

Book The Rational Climate e-Book (2nd Edition)

This very recent paper [1] by Stuart Arthur Harris (Sept. 2022) puts the question of GHE and global warming back in its natural place: at the heart of the scientific debate. The conclusion of this research: "There is no evidence to indicate that carbon dioxide is of any special importance in the processes so that the measures taken by governments to alleviate it as a problem are not needed" will undoubtedly have a paramount contribution to the "Climate Change" debate which has often been brought out of the scientific circle.

[1] Harris, S. A. (2022). Causes and Mechanisms of Global Warming/Climate Change. The Nature, Causes, Effects and Mitigation of Climate Change on the Environment, 17. Available on:

Article Causes and mechanisms of global warming/climate change

Climate Change & Agriculture in the Arid Region, an example of Tunisian Olive Groves adaptation to bioclimatic conditions: The olive tree has been cultivated in Tunisia since Roman times under different bioclimatic conditions in exclusively rainfed groves: in the south with less than 250 mm of rainfall and in the north with more than 600 mm [1]. Apart from the different olive tree species in each of the regions, it is clear that the density of olive trees is strictly correlated with rainfall, ranging from 16 olive trees per hectare in the South to nearly a hundred olive trees per hectare in the North; so that it is possible to faithfully superimpose the density map of olive trees on the map of isohyets. Empirically, over millennia and outside of any protocol or procedure, the peasants have naturally adapted to the natural conditions of the environment, and it is difficult to imagine that things can be otherwise.

[1]Book National Water Security, Case Study of an Arid Country: Tunisia

See also:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Water_Footprint_Water_Colors_Blue_Water_Green_Water_Grey_Water_Virtual_Water

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Climate_Change_Water_Resources

Jamel Chahed

Great example of the density of olive trees.

Thank You Dear H. Douglas Lightfoot

Very glad to having you on this discussion thread

This was what I saw online

https://indiascreen.ir/post/the-study-of-the-crop.p41970

This must-read paper [1] should call out all climatologists and other scientists interested in climate change. Published in "Entropy Sept. 2022", a journal that publishes research related to Mathematical Physics, this article proposes an original formulation of the heat balance of the lithosphere based on fundamental principles of classical physics and thermodynamics. The conclusions are disconcerting vis-à-vis what is accepted as "Their Own Truths" by both climate-alarmists and climate-septics.

[1] Woodcock, L. V. (2022). Global Warming by Geothermal Heat from Fracking: Energy Industry’s Enthalpy Footprints. Entropy, 24(9), 1316.

Available on:

https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/24/9/1316/pdf?version=1663637486

See also:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_energy_pattern_and_the_perspective_of_large-scale_exploitation_of_shale_gas_What_alternative_solutions