The fact that most of the countries had "shutdown" for several weeks (and in some cases it might end up being 2 months or longer)- will definitely cause a serious global recession. Many small and mid-size companies will go out of business, millions of people lost their jobs already. Impossible to predict all the outcomes at the moment... I hope that the near-exponential growth will stop by end of April, but then there will be new smaller coronavirus outbreaks here and there for several more months.
The long days/weeks of lockdown and the unprecedented unplanned budget to contain the pandemic by nations are pointers to global recession in a short term if post COVID-19 would be well managed and longer if mismanagement.
Yes, oil prices will drop and oil-exporting countries will suffer a major crisis because there is no consumption due to world economy stopping, which means that millions of people around the world will lose their jobs and inevitably cause a deep recession.
Let's remember that daily oil consumption / production is about 100 million barrels per day / drops to 20 million per day in April, possibly oil abundance will continue to lower prices for two or three months, the state of this world economy, no consumption no production
The Coronavirus pandemic has already led to a serious global recession, some countries are reporting an estimated GDP decline of 8% and more (even though its impact is still hard to measure as lock-downs are still taking place and a second wave of infections might even follow). Some estimations indicate that global trade might decline by a third for 2020. With no solution in sight (vaccines not ready so far), the damages will even be felt in 2021 (Air Transport, Tourism and other economic sectors will suffer for years to come).
Many companies across the globe are already facing economic crises likewise different countries. Many workers may be asked to leave due to lack of fund to pay. Certainly, the pandemic would cause massive economic crises across the world and weak nations would be badly affected
It is difficult to predict that the economy will recover since we do not know when the world will normalize, especially the nowadays pandemic is spreading in South America
Many countries and continent are already in financial crisis but how long and how severe this will last definitely is dependent on many factors. The financial shift many favour some countries while some maybe at sea. The ball is still rolling.
The global public health system and economy are in serious distress condition as a result of the COVID-19 and still counting. Rethinking public health policy and funding to mainstream economic growth should be the priority of nations and regions of the world.
Pandemic is causing "unprecedented decline in global activity," according to the IMF
Some key forecasts:
China, which got a head start on the recovery, is expected to log growth of 1%, in part due to policy support from the government. India's economy, meanwhile, is forecast to shrink 4.5% following a longer lockdown and slower-than-expected recovery.
The US economy is expected to shrink by 8%, while output across the 19 countries that use the euro could decline by 10.2%.
Countries in Latin America that are still struggling to contain the virus will also be hard hit. Brazil's economy is expected to contract by 9.1%, while output in Mexico could decline by 10.5%.
The outlook is slightly rosier than those provided by the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which have recently forecast that global GDP would shrink by 5.2% and 6%, respectively, before rebounding in 2021.
But the IMF warned of a "higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty" around its forecast, which it said was based on a number of assumptions, including stable financial conditions.
The impact is already being seen in some countries. The pandemic has brought financial crises, job lost, businesses collapsing and shift in production line. It may take a long time for things to return to normal
In a few months, economic activity is well below normal worldwide. A long-term recession, however, will not happen because the economic authorities have extensive knowledge and tools to avoid what happened in 1929