It is claimed that human’s decision making is not logical necessarily [1].
Here is an example from [2].
Task 1: choose one of the following options:
a) 80% chance to win 4000$.
b) 3000$ for sure.
Task 2: choose one of the following options:
c) 20% chance to win 4000$.
d) 25% chance to win 3000$
In the first task, most people choose option (b) and in the second task most people prefer option (c). However the only difference between two tasks, is the multiplication of probabilities to 0.25, which shouldn’t change the decision.
Kahneman and Tvresky proposed two statistical curves for weighting “probability” and “value” in human mind (figure 1) [2]. However we want to model the dynamic of this behavior. A very rough idea is to consider a set of differential/difference equations and collecting some data for determining the structure and parameters.
Any suggestion and comment?
Thank you in advance,
Sajad
References:
[1] Ariely, Dan. "Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.”
[2] Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. "Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk." Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society (1979): 263-291.