Cosmic rays have a slight interaction with clouds. How much significant is that interaction? Can that interaction change the energy budget of Earth and the dynamical processes which interact with the vapor content?
Short answer: there's been claimed correlations and some theoretical work, but no experimental verification.
Long answer with citations:
A correlation between cosmic ray flux and clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been described (see, for instance, Marsh and Svensmark, 2000). However, this correlation has been called into question by Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Erlykin and Wolfendale (2011). Further, the claim of a correlation between climate change and spiral arm crossings (used to support the cosmic ray–cloud connection) by Shaviv (2002) has been effectively ruled out based on updated knowledge of Galactic dynamics (Overholt et al., 2009). The physical mechanism itself, involving enhanced formation of aerosols and nucleation sites (Tinsley, 2000; Svensmark et al., 2009), while plausible, is not established (Wagner et al., 2001; Pierce and Adams, 2009). The CLOUD experiment at CERN has sought to establish such a mechanism, with inconclusive results (Duplissy et al., 2010, Kirkby et al., 2011).
Marsh, N. and Svensmark, H. (2000) Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate. Space Sci Rev 94:215–230.
Sloan, T. and Wolfendale, A.W. (2008) Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Environ Res Lett 3, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024001.
Erlykin, A.D. and Wolfendale, A.W. (2011) Cosmic ray effects on cloud cover and their relevance to climate change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 73:1681–1686.
Shaviv, N.J. (2002) Cosmic ray diffusion from the galactic spiral arms, iron meteorites, and a possible climatic connection. Phys Rev Lett 89, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.051102.
Overholt, A.C., Melott, A.L., and Pohl, M. (2009) Testing the link between terrestrial climate change and galactic spiral arm transit. Astrophys J 705, doi:10.1088/0004-637X/705/2/L101.
Tinsley, B.A. (2000) Influence of solar wind on the global electric circuit, and inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere. Space Sci Rev 94:231–258.
Svensmark, H., Bondo, T. and Svensmark, J. (2009) Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. Geophys Res Lett 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL038429.
Wagner, G., Livingstone, D.M., Masarik, J., Muscheler, R., and Beer, J. (2001) Some results relevant to the discussion of a possible link between cosmic rays and Earth’s climate. J Geophys Res 106:3381–3387.
Pierce, J.R. and Adams, P.J. (2009) Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates? Geophys Res Lett 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037946.
Duplissy, J., et al. (2010) Results from the CERN pilot CLOUD experiment. Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635–1647.
Kirkby, J., et al. (2011) Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation. Nature 476:429–433.
It's controversial. B A Tinsley has argued the case for it in many papers; it will be very difficult to perform observations and field experiments to test it conclusively. That's partly because cloud condensation nuclei are complex chemically, and vary from one location or cloud type to another. The observed scale invariant turbulent structure of water, temperature and winds inside and outside clouds will also complicate matters.
there was a CLOUD experiment at CERN, but I didn't see a publication establishing a direct link between the galactic cosmic rays and cloud formation. If this effect exists, it is minor compared to other factors influencing the cloud formation.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/10/cern-experiment-finds-key-ingredient-for-cloud-droplets/
Short answer: there's been claimed correlations and some theoretical work, but no experimental verification.
Long answer with citations:
A correlation between cosmic ray flux and clouds in Earth’s atmosphere has been described (see, for instance, Marsh and Svensmark, 2000). However, this correlation has been called into question by Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) and Erlykin and Wolfendale (2011). Further, the claim of a correlation between climate change and spiral arm crossings (used to support the cosmic ray–cloud connection) by Shaviv (2002) has been effectively ruled out based on updated knowledge of Galactic dynamics (Overholt et al., 2009). The physical mechanism itself, involving enhanced formation of aerosols and nucleation sites (Tinsley, 2000; Svensmark et al., 2009), while plausible, is not established (Wagner et al., 2001; Pierce and Adams, 2009). The CLOUD experiment at CERN has sought to establish such a mechanism, with inconclusive results (Duplissy et al., 2010, Kirkby et al., 2011).
Marsh, N. and Svensmark, H. (2000) Cosmic rays, clouds, and climate. Space Sci Rev 94:215–230.
Sloan, T. and Wolfendale, A.W. (2008) Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Environ Res Lett 3, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/2/024001.
Erlykin, A.D. and Wolfendale, A.W. (2011) Cosmic ray effects on cloud cover and their relevance to climate change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 73:1681–1686.
Shaviv, N.J. (2002) Cosmic ray diffusion from the galactic spiral arms, iron meteorites, and a possible climatic connection. Phys Rev Lett 89, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.051102.
Overholt, A.C., Melott, A.L., and Pohl, M. (2009) Testing the link between terrestrial climate change and galactic spiral arm transit. Astrophys J 705, doi:10.1088/0004-637X/705/2/L101.
Tinsley, B.A. (2000) Influence of solar wind on the global electric circuit, and inferred effects on cloud microphysics, temperature, and dynamics in the troposphere. Space Sci Rev 94:231–258.
Svensmark, H., Bondo, T. and Svensmark, J. (2009) Cosmic ray decreases affect atmospheric aerosols and clouds. Geophys Res Lett 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL038429.
Wagner, G., Livingstone, D.M., Masarik, J., Muscheler, R., and Beer, J. (2001) Some results relevant to the discussion of a possible link between cosmic rays and Earth’s climate. J Geophys Res 106:3381–3387.
Pierce, J.R. and Adams, P.J. (2009) Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates? Geophys Res Lett 36, doi:10.1029/2009GL037946.
Duplissy, J., et al. (2010) Results from the CERN pilot CLOUD experiment. Atmos Chem Phys 10:1635–1647.
Kirkby, J., et al. (2011) Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation. Nature 476:429–433.
In my book: Assessing Climate Change (3rd ed.) published by Springer/Praxis I have an 11-page summary of research dealing with this question, including numerous references and several graphs. I would be happy to send a pdf of this section of the book to anyone who requests it. Send your email address to [email protected]
Also, cf.
E. Palle, C.J. Butler and K. O'Brien, The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1779-1790 (2004).
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