I am trying to predict drought intensity in a wet tropical forest region using Long-term precipitation data.
Non of them.
Since both indices are based on diagnostic (i.e. already happened) data for the precipitation (for the SPI) or precipitation/evapotranspiration (SPEI) thei are indicators for quantifying past/current situation and not the future.
The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is an extension of the widely used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPEI is designed to take into account both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in determining drought :)
The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is an extension of the widely used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPEI is designed to take into account both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) in determining drought. Thus, unlike the SPI, the SPEI captures the main impact of increased temperatures on water demand. Like the SPI, the SPEI can be calculated on a range of timescales from 1-48 months. At longer timescales (>~18 months), the SPEI has been shown to correlate with the self-calibrating PDSI (sc-PDSI). If only limited data are available, say temperature and precipitation, PET can be estimated with the simple Thornthwaite method. You can refer to: Article Comparative analyses of SPI and SPEI as drought assessment t...
Article Comparative analyses of SPI and SPEI as drought assessment t...
Hristo Chervenkov thankyou for the answer. my aim isn't to predict for the future rather I am aiming to get the years during which drought could have possibly occurred between the period (1993-2021).
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