Among fiscal deficit, inflation differential, productivity growth, and reserve diversification, which factor exerts the most persistent impact on US dollar valuation based on recent empirical studies?
The difference in interest rates between the US and different countries can cause a change in the dollar valuation. Though higher interest rates attract different countries. So it can have a good impact on dollar valuation. Besides that, dollar reservations have an impact on dollar valuation because of reservation policy. Policy can become strict or easy which will determine the valuation of the dollar. Moreover, the dollar will fluctuate during global crises or uncertainty. The dollar will be evaluated based on the situation.
Jarin Tusnim Choudhury Thank you for highlighting these important factors. You're correct—the interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other countries indeed play a crucial role in shaping dollar valuation by influencing global capital flows. Higher U.S. interest rates often attract foreign investments, increasing demand and strengthening the dollar. Additionally, dollar reserves and central banks' reserve policies significantly impact currency valuation by altering the supply and demand dynamics. Your point about global crises or periods of uncertainty is also essential, as investors typically seek safe-haven assets like the dollar, causing fluctuations in valuation during such times. Excellent observations!
Yahya Alsalhi You're absolutely right—significant fluctuations in exchange rates can have uneven effects across institutions. The impact often depends on factors like the size of foreign currency exposure, the nature of the institution’s operations, and how well they manage currency risk. Organizations with robust hedging strategies may absorb these fluctuations better, while others might face more substantial financial strain. Managing exchange rate volatility is therefore a critical aspect of international financial planning.