A rule of thumb in insect monitoring using insect traps is that "the trap is never detecting the first insect arriving in the field" that is "one insect in the trap represents many insects in the field".
Taking that to the Covid-19
Who came first to the field?
Has the first corona patient been detected when there were already some 999 asymptomatic carriers around? Because if that's the case, then the spread of the disease in the world is more inevitable and obeying the laws of nature than "practically stoppable" through social distancing and lock-downs. Isn't that so?
It is asking, which came first "Chicken or egg."
Without a contact with a COVID-19 patient (through droplet or fomites), another person will not be infected.
Dear Evan,
I agree with you and believe that COVID-19 carrier with asymptomatic status comes first followed by the actual patient on the analogy of the insect trap.
Ignore the first case (egg or chicken) Fouad Yousuf , if the asymptomatic carriers were out numbered the actual patients and spread around faster and feather infecting the area it means that in some cases the imposed "social separation" was in a way "locking the barn's gates after the horse ran out". It also suggests that the real difference between, say, South Korea and the USA is not so much the actions carried out but the natural ecological and geographical differences between the two.
Just think of the first case of the COVID-19 disease in Wuhan, China. It was the carrier person who was the first one to come, infecting others and then becoming a patient himself.
Keep in mind Munira Nasiruddin that in the beginning, the Covid19 testing protocols were mostly (if not entirely) applied on symptomatic cases. So was that first confirmed case (in Wuhan, China) was indeed the first human to carry and transmit it?
Is it possible that before that one, there some asymptomatic carriers transiting the disease, that were never checked (and so, never confirmed)?
Dear Yoav is absolutely right. Till patient confirmed, asymptomatic carriers spread secondary infection, while incubation period would be waiting symptoms appeared.
So, asymptomatic carriers come first.
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