As there have been identified numerous tipping points in the climate system that might trigger a domino effect or hidden feedback loops [1], I wonder how much more CO2 we can emmit until the system is beyond human control. Or is it possibly already too late?[2]
The IPCC reports indicate, that the risks and impacts increase a lot between a global mean surface temperature of 1.5°C to 2°C. But they are quite far from a statistically significant CO2 budget calculation of p < 0,05.
Therefore I would like to know how much time we have left for a statistically safe pathway with a CO2 budget that is not based on any 50:50 probabilities.
[1]
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Cascading regime shifts within and across scales
Science 21 Dec 2018: Vol. 362, Issue 6421, pp. 1379-1383 DOI: 10.1126/science.aat7850
[2]
Article Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against
The scientists say that “estimates of where an Amazon tipping point could lie range from 40% deforestation to just 20% forest-cover loss”.
@Liz Brogden
As a point of no return i consider a state of the climate system that might (already) be reached.
This state would trigger such enormous changes that we humans could not stop the global warming anymore for thousands of years (if we survive that long). So if we passed this point already you're right and it can't be too late (as long as we don't invent time travel).
But i'd like to prevent passing this point if it is still to come and we can do it. Such a “deadline“ would be a very good argument to speed up our international efforts in fighting the climate crisis. As we are still lacking far behind the Paris Agreement of 2015 it would be a desaster if these targets were set too low and we would now loose our chance to stop global warming just because no one knew how urgent it really is.
We can't wait to let CO2 increase too much. Why not adopt the scrubbers' method of absorbing this gas from the air preferably close to where it is produced: every city can initiate a CO2 collection factory.
If you want to keep polluting the air with emissions, then you should be able to take this gas out of the air as well. It can be done, but governments are busy still subsidizing the dirty oil industry!!
Remember governments only care to survive until the next week, do not care about the well being of the next generations!