So much is in a flux right now, the level of uncertainty is high and there is a constant battle between narratives. What is your opinion; when will our economies start to recover? Many businesses are in deep crisis, like airlines, reaturants and the whole travel industry. What are your thoughts?
Normalizing the global health crisis will take 1-2 years (acute measures); stabilizing the economy back will take 3-5 years. This is a war-like control szenario, in terms of mathematical and physical modelling.
EU recovery will be chronically slower than US, because of stronger state interventionist storms, e.g. monetary union into debt union.
Henrik, I think recovery will be dependent on a number of factors, including, but not wholly restricted to issues such as the level and depth of 'scarring' that has been impacted on not only EU and American economies but developing economies as well. It will also depend on the extent to which both developed and developing economies, their leaders and citizenry cooperate in fighting a common, albeit hidden enemy etc etc....Interesting!
I agree with Stephen I. Ternyik , his observation is so practical.
I agree. I think it will take some times. I wonder how ever if the difference in meassures will have any significant impact on the duration of the crisis. Sweden and Finland are neigbouring countries but have taken very different approaches when it comes to borders and closedown in general. Will there be any difference in the lingering effects so to speak? What are your views?
a very timely query. to me, i think it will take up to two years providing that these countries make new contracts and alliances with various countries.
Perhaps we are at War, but we just haven't realized that yet. If (big if) this is the case, there are many parameters to be taken into account before this question can be answered.
Lou
Agree with Stephen I. Terniyk. A realistic scenario for both economies to stabilise would be a time frame of 3-5 years from now.
I suggest that a major economic opportunity worldwide is a worldwide patent-free admission of a covid-19 medicine, which will allow pharmaceutical companies worldwide to produce generica and to achieve economies of scale on a local level.
The instruments to overcome the crisis brought about by the covid-19 are broad. Europe and the USA will overcome the economic crisis in 12 to 18 months - unless new health problems occur.
There is always a human trade going on, and it is changing in one way or another. Don't worry, new jobs will be set up, as you can see on the Internet right now.
Article How National Economies Will Recover after the Fall of Quaran...
One thing the US will never recover is dominance in the trading system. China will be in the driving seat.
To encourage discussion of the economic impact generated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the control measures taken at the international level, we invite you to read the following article.
Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: The Case of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology, 2020. DOI: 10.22207/JPAM.14.SPL1.07
Article Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: Th...
I would encourage both of them to plan and aim to and address the damage caused by the pandemic and invest in activities that would help recover their economies by borrowing from financial markets using low credit costs
A case in point.
https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_if_Trump_Wont_Go
It depends on the anti-crisis programs of the EU and US Economies
Thank you for such an interesting question. I apologize in those who began their teaching career in academia did not work for one day in practical fields. But I believe that (and this has repeatedly proved life practice), more is interesting and effective work in audiences, when the teacher is from practice and he is well known with those processes that occur around, and in Management the right decisions can be made not only based on theories but also in practice. Since any theory gives different results in different environments and as for the US economy, as I have already noted, it depends on the country's anti-crisis program, which should be developed by a group of scientists together with representatives of business, entrepreneurs, etc.
Two to three years for full recovery but not if austerity is introduced. Only consumer confidence can restore the economy and a monetarist approach will simply depress it for longer.
I agree with Mr. Barry Turner. Monetary approach will destroy the economy. America has already gone through this lesson (financial crisis 2000-2005)
The economies are slowly opening up but areas such as hospitality and tourism suffered a hard blow. Question is if they will recover in the bear future with social restrictions still in place and most borders still closed for tourists. What do you think?
However sad it is, it’s a reality. Expanding of the limits of tourism under these conditions is impossible for most countries, as it depends on the mobilization of all resources for strict border control, in other words, this is possible only in conditions of strict processes management and appropriate qualifications
Sadly so and it has also created a lot of tension within the EU, take Sweden for example. I fear this might also have implications for the long term development of the EU.
I do not think but until there is no vaccine, the risks will not decrease
I would like to thank all scietists, joined in the discussion. As US president JFK took his ofice he found on the desk a note from his predessesor: "Remmember, there are no easy decisions - if there were, sombody before you would have taken them!"
Dear Professor Hasan, Did you see my latest research: 8 Similarities between Collapse of Roman Empire and USSR in: Research section of my works File available
It is from 23 October 2020
Best, Assoc, Prof. Bancho Banov
The above question (When will the EU and US economies recover after covid 19?) Was posted in this discussion forum in May 2020. At that time, the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic was already developed and continued in most countries of the world. At that time, the economies of many countries were in a deep recession. Later it turned out that the second quarter of 2020 was the period of the deepest recession in the economies of many countries, and also in macroeconomic terms, the entire global economy was experiencing the greatest slowdown in economic growth. There was then a recession in the global economy. A lot has changed since then. An important date for the financial markets was the beginning of November 2020, when pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna announced to the media that they were completing testing work on highly effective vaccines and that at the end of 2020 they would launch mass production of Coronavirus vaccines. At that time, the medium-term (and possibly also long-term) trends in the valuation of stock exchange assets changed dramatically in the financial markets, capital markets and securities markets. The situation on the stock markets changed dramatically and improved significantly. This may mean that in 2021, the global economy and the economies of many countries will return to improving economic growth, come out of economic recession, and come out of deep economic crises. However, the key issue is the effectiveness of the currently launched or starting (January 2021) vaccination programs for citizens. If, thanks to these vaccinations of citizens, the social immunity of citizens of citizens increases significantly, the social transmission of the Coronavirus will significantly decrease, the process of creating new mutant variants of the Coronavirus will be slower, there will be no new waves of the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) coronavirus pandemic, they will not be new lockdowns imposed on specific industries and sectors of the economy, etc., then the economies of many countries will quickly recover and emerge from the current economic crisis.
Best regards, Have a nice day, Stay healthy!
Dariusz Prokopowicz
With the stimumulus package and vaccination going on. I hope the economies will be okay next year Jan, 2022.
Thank You Kiprotich Kiptum, I hope so as well.
Best regards
Associate Prof. Banov
In the last few months to date (May 2021), there are more and more symptoms of rapid recovery of many economies from the 2020 recession. This process is determined by the applied anti-crisis, interventionist public aid programs for enterprises and the increasingly efficient programs of vaccination of citizens against the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19).
Best regards,
Dariusz Prokopowicz