Dear Golam the write up was too long it took a while to complete and reach to the question. I will say we all feel that climate change is going to harm our ecosystem, but we have very few evidences on what it has changed. From time to time we even find the IPCC report questioned, sometimes serious. There are very few studies systematically conducted on decadal scale which have documented these evidences.

Regarding your question. In arid desert we are actually not observing any significant change. Most of teh environmental parameters have remained consistent for past 2 decades.

As I am from Bangladesh, my country has already experienced the impact of climate change. We have various ecosystems like mangrove ecosystem, riparian ecosystems, estuarine ecosystem, different forests etc. Particular in the coastal zone cyclone is the major problem. Each year people, crops, forests, livestocks are damaged due to cyclone. In the summer , occasional tornado is another problem. Irregularity in the raining, either heavy downfall or no rainfall, increase salinity in the agricultural lands. Increasing temperature causes disease incidence in the human population, crops , trees, fruits, livestock etc. Due to high tidal bore each year in the coastal belt, fresh water ecosystems are damaged and become saline. As consequence, fresh water life cycle is completely eliminated. Fertile lands are week to produce sufficient crops.

My Country, India is meant for the rich diversity of life .

The climate change has a direct effect on the ecosystems of India, as the country is well monitored by the climatic conditions.

Following changes are already experienced-

1. Shifting of raining seasons

2,. Shifting in the phenology of flowering plants

Expected impacts include-

1. Raising of sea level, and thus fear of drowning of cities like Mumbai/ Kolkota/ Chennai.. which are the commercial centers of country

2. Short lived Herbs are likely to vanish out from extreme habitats like moist plateaus and high altitudes.

1) With increasing levels of temperature & shifting of precipitation, fodder for bigger milch animals will see a huge shortage, buffaloes might find it extremely tough to sustain in such temperatures & this will lead to shifting of farming & husbandry of goats appreciably.Dairy industry is likely to get a direct hit,in India.

2) Aquatic birds would either shift to interior of forests where they could survive & the same will be lost to places hitherto observed.

3) It would lead to lowering of freshwater fish harvest from natural ponds & man made aquaculture ponds - this is alarming more so because,some 50% of the total harvest comes from these water bodies in India.

4) Slow but steady change in scenario of perennial oil seeds crop will see dominance of Castor & Neem in such effected areas.

5) India could see production of dates especially in arid regions of Fazilka & Abohar (in Western Punjab state),which is hitherto imported from West Asian countries.

Dear Golam the write up was too long it took a while to complete and reach to the question. I will say we all feel that climate change is going to harm our ecosystem, but we have very few evidences on what it has changed. From time to time we even find the IPCC report questioned, sometimes serious. There are very few studies systematically conducted on decadal scale which have documented these evidences.

Regarding your question. In arid desert we are actually not observing any significant change. Most of teh environmental parameters have remained consistent for past 2 decades.

Dear Partha,

I do agree with you that climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events like cyclones/tornadoes and salinsation of freshwater aquifers, agricultural lands and freshwater ecosystems. Bangladesh is one of the countries projected to be most at risk from climate change

Dear Gurumurthi,

Thank you for providing information that there has already been in shift in rainy seasons and phenology of flowering plants in India. Research carried out in North America, Europe has also indicated advanced flowering periods in concert with increasing temperatures.

Dear Chandravadan,

Thank you for the information that buffaloes (in India) might find it difficult to sustain and aquatic birds may be impacted?

In Sierra Nevada region of USA small mammals have been found to move upward to escape rising temperature (heat). A number of migratory birds monitored in Minnesota, USA showed significantly earlier arrival dates due to increasing winter temperatures

Dear Saif,

Many thanks. Most studies related to impacts on ecosystems actually carried out in USA, Canada and Europe (examined 20-60 years data)

As far as the prevailing scenario in Indian Himalayas is concerned, a few impacts of climate change have been clearly observed which are as follows:

1. Altitudinal shift of the vegetation.

2. Shifting of the phenolology of many plants.

3. Early reproductive maturity of many exotic trees.

4. Increment in the rate of spatial expansion of many introduced pines.

5. Certain high altitude medicinal plants nearing extinction.

I agree to Saif Uddin, it would vary from region to region. But still it is not widely researched in many developing countries. Indeed, Shifting of raining seasons is one which is evident as finds Gurumurthi Rajaram Hegde.

There will be more snow in Winter and more rains in Automn. Moreover it will completely disturb the track of migrating birds to the South. (South Finland)

Dear Gautam,

Apart from observations, perhaps there were no systematic studies carried out in the subcontinent and Middle East. However, a number of studies/data analysis (20-60 years) carried out in North America and Europe where they have found

altitudinal shifts of plants from 22 to 68 m and changed in first flowering times

Dear Asmat,

Yes it looks that in temperate area the changes are more pronounced, however, if you did not notice changes, species (biodiversity) may respond to climate change either staying or moving out or dying out

Dear Guido,

In some studies, researchers found that some birds in North America and Europe shifted to north 3-28 kms

Dear Saif et al.,

Further, the write up (explanation of the question) could have been slightly longer but this was (which I felt at that time) to facilitate general people who are not familiar with this topic and may be from other disciplines, i.e. not associated with environment, ecology or climate change who would like to respond etc. Moreover, I had to explain little bit about the goods and services provided by each ecosystem to make it easier to respond. Note, there were eight ecosystems identified in the write up. You could consider the longer write up as a short review about the topic which I thought may benefit someone! Anyway I have now shortened my explanation as suggested

Dear Golam, And so do birds in Finland. However the Automn migration to the South starts later and the return of those birds starts earlier in Spring. However there is no standard pattern anymore. This fact causes a tragedy in 2010 because it was freezing more than 15 centidegrees from the middle of November. Also the Winter of 2013 took very long (till the end of April) All that unpredictable weather disturbed the normal annual migration of birds.

Dear Golam,

At least for 3 of the points which I have mentioned, shifting of phenology, increment in the rate of spatial expansion of many introduced pines and certain high altitudinal medicinal plants are nearing extinction - proper studies have been conducted and evidences are also available.

Dear Gautam,

Could you please if you have any references or links related to those evidences (shifting of phenology, increment in the rate of spatial expansion of many introduced pines and certain high altitudinal medicinal plants are nearing extinction) ? Many thanks

Dear Guido,

Thank you for info related to shifts (phonological) in bird migrations in Finland.do you have any reference for this?

Study carried out over a 40 years period (Swanson and Palmer 2009) found that global warming (rise of winter temperatures) caused 36% of bird (out of 44 species studied) to arrive earlier at stopover sites and breeding grounds in Minnesota (Mid-west and Great lakes of USA).

Swanson D. L, and J. S. Palmer. 2009. Spring migration phenology of birds in the Northern Prairie region is correlated with local climate change. Journal of Field Ornithology. 80: 351-363

Future risk of mountain vegetation (Juniperus spp) in arid areas- due to climate change

The increase in temperatures (warmer and drier conditions thus climatic stress due to increased evapotranspiration) may cause a threat to mountain vegetation such as juniper woodland in Oman (Juniperus excelsa, subsp, polycarpos). The species currently found between 2100 m and 3000 m, but below 2400 m, the species are either dead or in very poor conditions and regeneration is absent. The species is also present in mountain areas from Turkey to India (El-Keblawy 2014; Fisher and Gardner 1995)

El-Keblawy A (2014) Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity Loss and Extinction of Endemic plants of Arid Land Mountains. J Biodivers Endanger Species 2:120. doi: 10.4172/2332-2543.1000120

Martin Fisher and A. S. Gardner. 1995. The status and ecology of a Juniperus excels subsp, polycarpos woodland in northern Moutian, Oman. Vegetatio. 119: 33-51

Both empirical measurements and theoretical models depict sweeping climate changes for parts of the Sonoran Desert in Arizona. These changes include chronic drought, extreme high temperatures, and changes in the North American monsoon. I study reptiles. At least for some taxa, such as the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus), its range is predicted to contract. See link below

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2014/1050/

Here is a summary of two abstracts to be delivered at a symposium next week.

Climate Change and Pitvipers: A Case Study of the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus)

Nowak, EM. Colorado Plateau Research Station and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 5614, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA

Schuett, GW. Department of Biology and Center for Behavioral Neuroscience, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA, and Chiricahua Desert Museum, P. O. Box 376, Rodeo, NM 88056, USA.

Clark, RW. Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego CA 92182, USA

Climate change is predicted to profoundly affect the distribution and viability of numerous plants and animals, and species restricted to specialized habitats are particularly vulnerable. Thus, pitvipers that are currently not protected actually may be at acute risk of extinction in the near future. Recent analyses of the projected impacts of climate change on the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus) serve as an important case study. Arizona black rattlesnakes are endemic to Arizona and extreme western New Mexico (USA), occurring at elevations between 900 and 3000 m (Degenhardt et al. 2005, Brennan and Holycross 2006). They are largely restricted to woodlands and shrublands in north and central Arizona and New Mexico, and to mountain ranges and riparian drainages in southeastern Arizona. The species is currently viewed as locally common or abundant, listed as “Secure” (Rank = G5) by NatureServe, and has not yet to be assessed for the IUCN Redlist. Furthermore, it is not given any special management protection by state or federal management agencies. Arizona Black Rattlesnakes are strongly associated with springs and riparian habitats, and use downed woody debris for ambush cover (Schofer 2007, Nowak and Schuett 2014). In high elevation areas, they are mostly dependent on communal hibernacula and rookeries in substantial rocky outcrops; in lower-elevation areas they appear to seek out rocky drainages as refugia. Recently, graduate students have noted in their masters’ theses (Schofer 2007, Amarello 2012) the complexity of social interactions and parental care in C. cerberus. . The Arizona Black Rattlesnake is unique among Arizona species in that it exhibits ontogenetic as well as physiological color change, in which adult individuals can assume at least three separate color phases.

Two research teams have independently identified Arizona Black Rattlesnakes as a species of particular management concern, due to predictions for substantial range contraction as a result of climate change (van Riper et al. 2014, Douglas et al. 2014). Future increases in temperature and concurrent decreases in rainfall and stream surface flow predicted for the southwestern U.S. are expected to result in substantial loss of ponderosa pine and pinyon-juniper woodland habitat, due to direct mortality, spread of forest pests, and catastrophic wildfires (Barnett et al. 2008; Williams et al. 2012). Given current distribution patterns for this species, these changes are expected to disproportionately impact habitat suitability for low-elevation populations of C. cerberus. By explicitly modeling current and future ranges using landscape and biotic (plant) niche variables and climatic global circulation models, van Riper et al. (2014) forecast a 32% to46% decrease by 2099 in the range currently occupied by C. cerberus. The range of variation was predicated on differing assumptions about the species’ dispersal abilities; loss was most extensive for low-elevation populations. Douglas et al. (2014) used genetic diversity analyses and North American bioclimatic variables to derive an environmental niche model encompassing yearly trends, seasonality, and extreme environmental conditions. They also predicted range contraction due to changing climate and habitat loss as a result of wildfire, exacerbated by the species’ relatively shallow genetic divergence.

Both teams will present their research at the Biology of the Pitvipers 2 conference in Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 4-7, 2014 at the DoubleTree Hilton.

Given modelling predictions for widespread range contraction, funding for long-term monitoring and determining the importance of actors driving its current distribution (especially in western New Mexico) would seem to be warranted. As well, additional research on the ecology, physiology, and sociality of Arizona Black Rattlesnakes in the wild could elucidate possible management strategies for helping this species acclimate to climate-change induced stressors such as protracted drought coupled with extreme high temperatures.

References

Amarello, M. 2012. Social snakes? Non-random association patterns detected in a population of Arizona black rattlesnakes (Crotalus cerberus). Master’s thesis, Arizona State University, U.S.A.

Barnett, T.P., D.W. Pierce, H.G. Hildalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nozawa, A.A. Mirin, D.R. Cayan, and M.D. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080–1083.

Brennan, T.C., and A.T. Holycross. 2006. A Field Guide to Amphibian and Reptiles in Arizona. Arizona Game and Fish Department, U.S.A.

Degenhardt, W.G., C.W. Painter, and A.H. Price. 2005. Amphibians and Reptiles of New Mexico. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.A.

Douglas, M.E., M.A. Davis, M.R. Douglas, M. Amarello, J.J. Smith J.J., H.-W. Herrmann, and G.W. Schuett. 2014. From Pleistocene to Anthropocene: climate change and its impact on the distribution of the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). Abstract of presentation to be given at Biology of the Pitvipers 2 conference, Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 2014.

IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature). http://www.iucnredlist.org/; accessed 5/282014.

NatureServe. Crotalus cerberus. http://explorer.natureserve.org/servlet/NatureServe?searchName=Crotalus+cerberus;accessed 5/28/2014.

Nowak, E.M., and G.W. Schuett. 2014. Rattlesnakes in syntopy: A case study from Arizona

G.W. Schuett, R.S. Reiserer, and C.F. Smith (Eds.), The Rattlesnakes of Arizona. Eco Publishing, Rodeo, New Mexico. In preparation.

Schofer, J.X. 2007. Movements, thermal biology, habitat use, and natural history of Crotalus cerberus in Northern Arizona. Master’s thesis, Northern Arizona University, U.S.A.

van Riper, C., III., J.R. Hatten, J.T. Giermakowski, D. Mattson, J.A. Holmes, M.J. Johnson, E.M. Nowak, K. Ironside, M. Peters, P. Heinrich, K.L. Cole, C. Truettner, and C.R. Schwalbe. 2014, Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014‒1050, 100 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141050.

Dear Gordan,

Many thanks for your significant contribution in this session related to a case study with Arizona endemic black rattle snake and possible impacts on this endemic species from climate change. Your contribution will benefit all of us following this session, of course! As I gathered shrinking/ contraction of habitat due to increases in temperature and decrease in rainfall, and stream flows would cause substantial loss of habitat (32-46% by 2099), essential for low elevation population of Crotalus cerberus

Climate Change and Pitvipers: A Case Study of the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus)

Nowak, EM. Colorado Plateau Research Station and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 5614, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA

Schuett, GW. Department of Biology and Center for Behavioral Neuroscience, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303 USA, and Chiricahua Desert Museum, P. O. Box 376, Rodeo, NM 88056, USA.

Clark, RW. Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego CA 92182, USA

Climate change is predicted to profoundly affect the distribution and viability of numerous plants and animals, and species restricted to specialized habitats are particularly vulnerable. Thus, pitvipers that are currently not protected actually may be at acute risk of extinction in the near future. Recent analyses of the projected impacts of climate change on the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus) serve as an important case study. Arizona black rattlesnakes are endemic to Arizona and extreme western New Mexico (USA), occurring at elevations between 900 and 3000 m (Degenhardt et al. 2005, Brennan and Holycross 2006). They are largely restricted to woodlands and shrublands in north and central Arizona and New Mexico, and to mountain ranges and riparian drainages in southeastern Arizona. The species is currently viewed as locally common or abundant, listed as “Secure” (Rank = G5) by NatureServe, and has not yet to be assessed for the IUCN Redlist. Furthermore, it is not given any special management protection by state or federal management agencies. Arizona Black Rattlesnakes are strongly associated with springs and riparian habitats, and use downed woody debris for ambush cover (Schofer 2007, Nowak and Schuett 2014). In high elevation areas, they are mostly dependent on communal hibernacula and rookeries in substantial rocky outcrops; in lower-elevation areas they appear to seek out rocky drainages as refugia. Recently, graduate students have noted in their masters’ theses (Schofer 2007, Amarello 2012) the complexity of social interactions and parental care in C. cerberus. . The Arizona Black Rattlesnake is unique among Arizona species in that it exhibits ontogenetic as well as physiological color change, in which adult individuals can assume at least three separate color phases.

Two research teams have independently identified Arizona Black Rattlesnakes as a species of particular management concern, due to predictions for substantial range contraction as a result of climate change (van Riper et al. 2014, Douglas et al. 2014). Future increases in temperature and concurrent decreases in rainfall and stream surface flow predicted for the southwestern U.S. are expected to result in substantial loss of ponderosa pine and pinyon-juniper woodland habitat, due to direct mortality, spread of forest pests, and catastrophic wildfires (Barnett et al. 2008; Williams et al. 2012). Given current distribution patterns for this species, these changes are expected to disproportionately impact habitat suitability for low-elevation populations of C. cerberus. By explicitly modeling current and future ranges using landscape and biotic (plant) niche variables and climatic global circulation models, van Riper et al. (2014) forecast a 32% to46% decrease by 2099 in the range currently occupied by C. cerberus. The range of variation was predicated on differing assumptions about the species’ dispersal abilities; loss was most extensive for low-elevation populations. Douglas et al. (2014) used genetic diversity analyses and North American bioclimatic variables to derive an environmental niche model encompassing yearly trends, seasonality, and extreme environmental conditions. They also predicted range contraction due to changing climate and habitat loss as a result of wildfire, exacerbated by the species’ relatively shallow genetic divergence.

Both teams will present their research at the Biology of the Pitvipers 2 conference in Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 4-7, 2014 at the DoubleTree Hilton.

Given modeling predictions for widespread range contraction, funding for long-term monitoring and determining the importance of actors driving its current distribution (especially in western New Mexico) would seem to be warranted. As well, additional research on the ecology, physiology, and sociality of Arizona Black Rattlesnakes in the wild could elucidate possible management strategies for helping this species acclimate to climate-change induced stressors such as protracted drought coupled with extreme high temperatures.

References

Amarello, M. 2012. Social snakes? Non-random association patterns detected in a population of Arizona black rattlesnakes (Crotalus cerberus). Master’s thesis, Arizona State University, U.S.A.

Barnett, T.P., D.W. Pierce, H.G. Hildalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nozawa, A.A. Mirin, D.R. Cayan, and M.D. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319:1080–1083.

Brennan, T.C., and A.T. Holycross. 2006. A Field Guide to Amphibian and Reptiles in Arizona. Arizona Game and Fish Department, U.S.A.

Degenhardt, W.G., C.W. Painter, and A.H. Price. 2005. Amphibians and Reptiles of New Mexico. University of New Mexico Press, Albuquerque, New Mexico, U.S.A.

Douglas, M.E., M.A. Davis, M.R. Douglas, M. Amarello, J.J. Smith J.J., H.-W. Herrmann, and G.W. Schuett. 2014. From Pleistocene to Anthropocene: climate change and its impact on the distribution of the Arizona Black Rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). Abstract of presentation to be given at Biology of the Pitvipers 2 conference, Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 2014.

IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature). http://www.iucnredlist.org/; accessed 5/282014.

NatureServe. Crotalus cerberus. http://explorer.natureserve.org/servlet/NatureServe?searchName=Crotalus+cerberus;accessed 5/28/2014.

Nowak, E.M., and G.W. Schuett. 2014. Rattlesnakes in syntopy: A case study from Arizona

G.W. Schuett, R.S. Reiserer, and C.F. Smith (Eds.), The Rattlesnakes of Arizona. Eco Publishing, Rodeo, New Mexico. In preparation.

Schofer, J.X. 2007. Movements, thermal biology, habitat use, and natural history of Crotalus cerberus in Northern Arizona. Master’s thesis, Northern Arizona University, U.S.A.

van Riper, C., III., J.R. Hatten, J.T. Giermakowski, D. Mattson, J.A. Holmes, M.J. Johnson, E.M. Nowak, K. Ironside, M. Peters, P. Heinrich, K.L. Cole, C. Truettner, and C.R. Schwalbe. 2014, Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2014‒1050, 100 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20141050.

the challenge I see is how we respond to these changes, or can we respond?

Given the dire predictions outlined, the challenge I see is how we respond, or can we respond? Reptiles, especially snakes, are typically not given "high priority" in Game & Fish departments in the USA with respect to robust conservation measures. I suspect in a world experiencing climate change it will be a model of more of the same ... no response. This is grim, but trying to paint a more rosy picture would be misleading. We need plans and action steps today.

Dear Gordon,

RE: how we respond to these changes, or can we respond?

I think perhaps awareness and education and significance of protecting this endemic species would be needed. Habitat restoration (ponderosa pine, pinyon-juniper) could be other aspects, and reducing threat of wild fires would also be essential. It appears that rattle snakes populations at higher elevation are not threatened, in terms of percentage what is the population size at higher vs. lower elevations?

Great questions. I think that the populations at higher elevations stand the best chance of remaining viable. However, this will depend on whether water sources, primarily streams, are present. Moreover, whether extreme wildfires can be curtailed or reduced is important. I suspect extreme wildfires are a more significant threat to the high-elevation populations than currently viewed. Obviously, these extreme fires negatively impact streams and their ecology. With respect to % of the species' distribution, that measurement has not been empirically, so for now I would be comfortable in saying >50%

It seems to be a good platform to exchange the knowledge and information on the climate change and the effect on the biodiversity. I appreciate the question of Mr. Golam Kibria. It helped me to know about different ecosystems regarding the climate change. Recently I have experienced the effect of climate change in the desert ecosystem. I have been working in the Desert ecosystem and mycorrhizal fungi. I have observed that untimely heavy downfall in Saudi Arabia caused water logging which increases the salinity in the soil. Moreover, seeds of annual plants germinated. But temperature increased immediately after the rain. Usually annual plant grow in the autumn and winter season and complete their life cycle before summer. But after the untimely raining in the summer, seeds germinated; However they faced serious temperature just after germination. As a result, they all died and the seed bank of desert was not revived. I experienced this year fewer annuals in the desert compared to the last year. As I had no data I could not publish article on this event. But this is my field experience in the desert ecosystem. I believe this is a new experience of climate change.

Climate warming and fungal disease

Dear Partha,

Thank you for sharing your important observation related to thermal stress on seeds germination in Saudi Arabia

Climate warming may alter plant disease (such as fungal) severity, for example Phytophthora cinnamomi (tree root pathogen) which caused major decline of holm oak and cork oak in the Mediterranean region. This fungal pathogen is now a threat to the stability of forest and health community’s ecosystems in some parts of Australia. The pathogen is soil borne and requires warm, wet soils to infect roots. It is projected that warming would significantly enhance the activity of this pathogen.

C.M .Brasier. 1996. Phytophthora cinnamomi and oak decline in southern Europe. Environmental constraints including climate change. Ann. For. Sci. 53: 347-358

Dear Dr. Partha

I am very happy to learn from your experience. But how rainfall (which is usually having low rather very low mineral content) led to increase in soil salinity. the desert soil is waterlogged in areas where there is gatch (usually), this is a result of over irrigation or secondary salinization due to use of bracksih-saline water, I am very surperized that rainwater led to salinity increase even if it has it will be a top 1 mm. I will be very happy to learn more from your experience.

Thank you Dr. Saif Uddin,

Usually in the desert raining is very scanty. But unusual raining is heavy and last year it was for 7 days long. It was flooded somewhere in Saudi Arabia and some people died due to high current from higher zone lower zone. Yes you are right, But in saudi arabia some places are completely saline and I believe that about 80% of the pedosphere is salt e. g. Umm-al-Qassab. Due to high rainfall and water-flow from these saline areas, cultivable lands become saline. It is just my experience, not based on the experimental data.

Dear Golam, you pose an important question, readily understandable by the general community, but rarely posed by politicians to them.

In Ireland, the oceanic climate with cool temperatures and frequent winds and rainfall has allowed an extensive freshwater system to develop, with two major components - many large lakes that rarely stratify, and extensive raised bogs many thousands of years old. Both of these are likely to be profoundly influenced by climate change.

Predictions are that as temperatures increase, there will be more extreme weather patterns: stormier winters and hotter, drier summers. The large lakes with their glacial relict communities of salmonoid fishes and eels are already somewhat degraded by organic pollution; and are moving towards eutrophy. In addition, human transfer of non-indigenous fish, such as perch and roach, and invertebrates such as zebra mussels, has altered the predation and planktonic-benthic balance. Climate change is likely to cause these lakes to stratify regularly and the hypolimnion may become deoxygenated, leading to summer-kill of trout and char seeking refuge in the depths from higher temperatures.

The raised bogs have also been much degraded in the last century by humans exploiting them for fuel, and are now much more vulnerable to climate change impacts. The residual wet domes will dry more rapidly, and shrink, with the likely loss of the specialised fauna and flora of these extreme habitats. Other impacts follow, including the probable collapse of hummock-hollow systems. Ireland's aggressive stance towards natural ecosystems is likely to lead to ecosystem damage out of proportion to its relatively low population by European standards.

Dear Julian,

Thank you for your appreciation! and I do agree with you about the following

Yes, the prediction is that stratification in lakes will be increased or prolonged (due to climate change) and lakes will stratify earlier and overturn later (in case of productive lakes for example) and the extent of dissolved oxygen levels in the bottom layers of lake may be greater. Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the frequency of extreme events (e.g. storms) and during sudden storm events a complete overturns of lakes anoxic hypolimnia may cause frequent fish kills

In addition, there is a possibility of shrinking of certain habitat due to warming (e.g. rise of temperatures and decrease of flows) causing loss of flora and fauna

Dear Dr. Julian, thank you for your comments. Climate effects in the micro-biomes are very important particularly in the asian regions. People are not aware of the dangerous consequences of the invasive species. Particularly in Bangladesh, there are many farms producing invasive cat fish and it is a threatening to the balance aquatic ecosystems of Bangladesh. In Bangladesh there are many introduced fish species grown in different farms and individually for better economy. However, they are not aware of the future consequence of these harmful invasive species. Besides, different no-fruit yielding plant species like Eucalyptus, Acacia spp., Mehgony are grown in Bangladesh extensively in public, private and government sector. I have experienced the matter that native birds and mammals living on the fruits, are facing serious food crisis and almost reduced in the population. They are not seen as well. Even they don't build any nests on these trees. As a result the extinction of these native birds is increasing along with the decreasing the native plants species. These are the impacts of human interference which contributed to the artificial changes of ecosystems.

This report is worth taking a look at...

http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/cc%20and%20modelling%20template%20v6.pdf

One of the main ecosystems which may be affected by climate change in the Canary Islands are the laurel forests, as they depend on the formation of clouds and mist to survive, especially during the late spring, summer and early autumn, a season without rains or very little rains. There are several papers about this topic.

Dear Ruben,

I read a paper by Frank et al. 2004 related to future climate change impacts on laurel forests of the Canary Island, Spain. The study reveals that changes in temperature and moisture may cause downward shift of laurel forests

Ah yes, Climate change, the great bane and fear of our time. Since climate change has been occurring on the earth long before "man" or woman ever showed up on the scene, I would suggest simply looking to earth's own history. For, what has happened in the earth's past is very, very likely to happen again. According to weather data dating back hundreds of thousands of years we will be repeating weather cycles that have repeated many times before. In fact, on a scale of hundreds of thousands of years, relatively speaking, we are actually just coming off of just one more huge warming cycle and are, in the normal course of things, entering yet another ice age. That will be out a few thousand years yet, but perhaps we should be producing as much greenhouse gases as possible to help stave off the new and coming ice age. Well…, maybe not. In actuality we simply cannot have a big enough impact to stop it.

Thanks for the good discussion. 

 The effects of climate change on the boreal forests, lakes and rivers is well studied and documented. Perhaps the difference between the developed world and undeveloped is the existance of long term data on climate, species distribuion, comunity structure, ecosystem functions and energy enflux between ecosystem. Having historical records facilitated documenting the effect of climate change and brought several studies on climate change impact.

I want to follow up on Saif Uddin answer. Despite my residency in Canada currently, I prevously lived in the Middle East and my M.Sc. was carried out in a hyper arid region, Southern Jordan. One of the obvious effects is the frequent flooding because of heavy precpitation, surprisingly rain in May and June. In particular this year witnessed the first snow in the desert of  Saudi Arabia. I would expect a change of species richness both in flora and fauna. Further, the effect can be davistating on species that build nests on the ground or in the ground. Such infrequent rain can for sure bring about some serious devastating changes to those species. Further, climate change will have an impact on wind severity and direction, I would expect few intoductions of new alien species that would benefit from the documented wetter winters in the desert. 

The effect of climate change is felt across the globe. 

Dear Mohammed Alshamlih ·

Thank you for your inputs

Climate change will causes species to stay (adapt), or move out to suitable habitat or die out. On the otherhand, climate change such as warming may cause an expansion of invasive species in new territories.

Any weblinks or references related to climate change impacts on boreal forest, lakes and rivers would be much appreciated

Dear Golam, 

Is it possible that you send me your email, I can send you published papers on the effect of warmer climate. In fact I am studying a species that is expanding its range because of warmer climate, however, in the case of this species there is high fishing interest for recreational activities. This interest could have driven much of the species secondary diffusion in its new habitat. However, that doesnt negate by any mean that climate change have driven several species to expand. 

There is a published paper that calculated species range expansion to the North, the author found an average of 16 km per decade, an older study found only 6 km movement towards the poles. 

As I said I will be happy to share those studies with you. 

Mohammed

One serious threat is the reintroduction of disease vectors.  The UK does not have any incidence of yellow fever or malaria but malaria was common into the 19th century and 2000 yeas ago even Scotland was plagued by it as demonstrated by accounts of losses in the Roman Army on the border.  

Dear Mohammed, Looking forward to receive your published paper or the links

Dear Barry,

Climate change may cause an expansion of malaria zone, the topic is being discussed under another thread

https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_will_be_the_possible_effects_of_climate_change_on_waterborne_diseases?_tpcectx=profile_highlights 

Dear Barry,

climate change have determined present vegetation patterns along the peruvian and chilean coastal deserts, plant communities of this type of ecosystem show fast and opportunistic responses to climatic factors such as water for example. It is known that ocean-atmospheric oscillations influence the plant cover and plant composition of local plant communities (see fog oases along the peruvian and chilean  coastal deserts). I give you some references:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/11263504.2014.918059

http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s11258-006-9211-7

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140196306001844

Rosa.

Dear Rosa,

Many thanks for the three publications

One of the papers is most interesting which demonstrate that ENSO related rainy years can enhance the growth and survival of native trees Prosopis chilensis (thus reforestation) if exotic herbivores (rabbits and hares) are absent or excluded. But is it possible to  control rabbits and hares? Also can this species be a suitable plant for agroforestry? 

Article: Model-Based Prediction of Nephropathia Epidemica Outbreaks Based on Climatological and Vegetation Data and Bank Vole Population Dynamics.

Dear Barry Turner, I completely join your answer, see also an article of W.W. Verstraeten  et all.,

climate the main responsible factor for the development of ecosystem. climate decides water availability, soil texture and nature of vegetation and climate will change the pattern of vegetation. therefore it affect the ecosystem

We speak of climate change as though it is something unique to our time and generation, and even unique to planet earth.  As a scientist I have investigated the climate and its history of change going back hundreds of thousands of years.  The fact is that the climate has been changing for as long as man can trace back in the geologic/climate record.  It has always been changing, and will continue to change.  In fact, if climate stopped changing, that is when I would start to worry.  A steady state is not normal for our earth’s climate.

 At several times in our planet’s past, on a scale of hundreds of thousands years, it has been both much warmer and much cooler than it is now.  And, we can see and measure the effect of global climate change on the neighboring rocky planets, meaning no people live there, but those planets display similar climate change, and which, as far as I have been able to tell, coincides with the same changes on earth.  This can only mean that the cause is not in or on earth, but rather beyond  the bounds of earth.

We often speak of the various ice ages (or cold spells), but seldom do we speak of the alternating hot spells in our earth’s history and that the cold and hot periods alternate pretty much on a regular bases.  We also do not frequently discuss the smaller swings in temperature the earth experiences in between these large swings in temperature.  But we do seem to take notice of the very local changes because we can see and live the impact those little changes have on our lives.  We are often led to believe they would not be happening if man was not on the earth.  The climate and geologic records say otherwise.

On a scale of hundreds of thousands of years the record indicates that not only are we not going through a long term warming trend (short term, maybe, the jury is still out on that one), but that we are in very point of fact slowly, ever so slowly, slipping into another ice age.  And is man causing it?  No, in fact it is right on schedule, it is occurring just when it should be happening according to the earth’s history.  Will this “naturally occurring” climate change have impact on plant and animal life.  I am sure of it, but to blame it on man ignores the historic facts and is conveniently being taken advantage of by politically motivated people.

Personally?  I doubt seriously there is much of anything man can do to alter the earth’s natural course of historic climate change.  It will and should occur.  However (and I say this tongue-in -cheek), if the earth is cooling long term, perhaps we should be producing as much green-house gases as we can to stave off the next ice age.

Climate change causes drought is more in my country.Forest fires have been caused by drought.Pests are seen growing in the woods.Dust problem in urban areas of forest and be seen.

 Forest die-back has became a one of the main issue in the mountain forest areas of Sri Lanka and many scientist are guest that is as a indicators of climate changing. as one of the other  indicator some animal species who are  =living in the dry zone have spreading in the wet zone also. for an example peacock could not find easily wet zone of Sri Lanka before 2000. Yet at the movement gradually increasing populations of peacock in the wet zones    

 I am sending details of some research works regarding forest die-back issues in Sri Lanka  

Werner, W. L. (1988). Canopy dieback in the upper montane rain forests of Sri Lanka. GeoJournal, 17(2), 245-248.

Werner, W. L., & Balasubramaniam, S. (1992). Structure and dynamics of the upper montane rain forests of Sri Lanka. In Tropical forests in transition (pp. 165-172). Birkhäuser Basel.

Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., ... & Gonzalez, P. (2010). A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest ecology and management, 259(4), 660-684.

Please see web link of a journal paper published in January 2017 entitled 'Climate change impacts on tropical and temperate fisheries, aquaculture & seafood security' that may be of interest to people who are following this thread!

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/312029756_Climate_change_impacts_on_tropical_and_temperate_fisheries_aquaculture_and_seafood_security_and_implications_-_A_review

Article Climate change impacts on tropical and temperate fisheries, ...

Hi

of the main problem of my country is no sufficient level data about impacts of climate change on an important ecosystem. Yet at the movement we can clearly observed  Monsoon systems and Rainfall pattern gradually changing in the Sri Lankan context and that is directly impact on different types of   eco systems of the island.  Different regions of the country have witnessed either flooding or drought in quick succession from last couple of years. I am sending some  research works regarding that . I think thoes papers will be useful for your work 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317495174_Recent_Scholarly_Books_Published_on_Climate_Change_Pollution_as_part_of_research_collaboration_between_Australian_and_Asian_scientists

Research Recent Scholarly Books Published on Climate Change & Polluti...

To answer your question we should make a model which consist pf projection of ecology , resources and indicators of sustainability.

Ireland's lowland rivers will see more substantial flooding of floodplains, presently built on and restrained through settlements, while the high velocity mountain streams will see damaging floods from extreme weather events.