These mentioned climatic hazards are most likely to increase with more or less variations over regional scales. Furthermore, their impacts are supposed to be non-beneficial for agriculture and food security.
It is evident from weather observations that there are correlations between Climate Change and extreme weather events (hazards), Actually no expected standard behavior could be assigned for all weather hazards, for e.g. Rapid floods may be also sever, at the same time drought periods may be more frequent and more intense , this approach may be applicable for other extreme weather events, however Sea Level Rise may be more steadily and behave in a different way.
Studies suggest that pattern of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold waves and extreme rainfall is likely to change in warming environment. Although there is a gradual decline in summer mean rainfall over South Asia, frequent episodes of intense rainfall have been observed over Indian region. Intense precipitation of short duration followed by longer dry period pose threat of both flood and drought over India. Long term increasing trend of Heat waves and Severe heat waves have been observed in recent decades. Heat waves are likely to intensify in future, increasing the risk of heat stress and mortality. In addition to the Climatic scenario, the Socio-economic vulnerability of the country also adds to the severity of the impact of climate change.
It is evident from different studies and observations that climate change(specially global warming) will result in increased frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events like flood, drought, heat waves etc. Though average amount of annual rainfall will decrease but the intensity as well as the duration of drought or flood may increase. Warming trend of climate will also result in sea level rise. The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expansion caused by warming of the ocean (since water expands as it warms) and increased melting of land-based ice, such as glaciers and ice sheets.
The impact studies over climate change has presented a very heterogeneous findings, where some region tend to experience more adverse impact than others. But of course, we should consider the negative impacts and work upon it accordingly. Though there are numerous reports and literature, yet difficult to combined the result in one. still, the result by HSBC report write "India most vulnerable country to climate change"
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters including heat, cold waves, cyclones, floods and famines could increase.
India has an 8000 km-long coastline with two cyclone seasons, during the southwest and northeast monsoons. Cyclones have been observed to be more frequent in the Bay of Bengal than the Arabian Sea. Consequently the states of West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu along the Bay of Bengal are the most affected as compared to Maharashtra, Kerala, Karnataka, and Gujarat which are along the Arabian Sea. Most of the destructive cyclonic storms usually occur during the transition periods: pre - (April-May) and post- (September-December) monsoon, the latter being the most active period. The coastal districts of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat are most prone to the impacts of cyclone (GoI, 2006).
Along with floods India suffers acute water shortage. Of the net area sown in the country, 68 percent is prone to drought, and of this 33 percent is chronically drought-prone, receiving rainfall of less than 750 mm per annum, while 35 percent receives rainfall between 750-1,125 mm per annum (GoI, 2002).
With the melting of the glaciers in the Hindukush-Karakorum Himalaya region, and the foreseeable increase in heavy rain events and intensity of tropical cyclones (Parry et al, 2007), the incidences of landslides are likely to increase.
The coastal zone, a highly fragile eco system, is an important and critical region for India. The area occupied by the coastal districts is around 379,610 Km2, with an average population density of 455 persons per Km2, which is about 5 times the national average of 324 persons per Km2. Under the present climate conditions it has been observed that a sea level rise (0.4-2.00 mm) along the Gulf of Kutchh and the coast of West Bengal is the highest. Along the Karnataka coast, however there is a relative decrease in sea level (GoI, 2004b).
The Natural catastrophes esp. the weather-related disasters will become more common by the end of the century.These will increase considerably by number and magnitude as they have happened in the past and will happen in the future. However, the frequency and intensity of extreme events may likely change as the environment in which they occur has altered due to climate change.There are scientific evidences which show the link between changing climate and increasing frequencies and intensities of natural catastrophes.
In a changing future with a predicted increase in extreme events, there is a growing need to strengthen disaster risk management and adequate response strategies. A particular focus should lie on multi-hazard EWS, as these are still very rare and not available on a global scale.
According to the IPCC SREX report: "we know enough to make good decisions about managing the risks of climate-related disasters. Sometimes we take advantage of this knowledge, but many times we do not. The challenge for the future has one dimension focused on improving the knowledge base and one on empowering good decisions, even for those situations where there is lots of uncertainty".
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