An early warning system (EWS) is a technology and associated policies and procedures designed to predict and mitigate the harm of natural and human-initiated disasters and other undesirable events.
Early warning warning systems have the following four components:
1) Risk knowledge: Data should be systematically collected and analyzed and risk assessments performed.
2) Monitoring and warning service: Systems should be installed to monitor hazards and provide early warning services.
3) Dissemination and communication: Risk information and early warning messages must be delivered.
4) Response capability: Systems should be in order to respond to events.
In India, Ministry of Earth Sciences has established the National Tsunami Early Warning System at the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. The Indian Meteorological Department has developed systems for issuing accurate warnings and generating real-time weather reports that are provided to disaster management agencies and emergency support service responders. Technologies like Doppler radar network are used to forecast heat waves, heavy rainfall, lightning and thunderstorms
The Ministry of Earth Sciences is introducing new programs to further boost the forecast services. They are:
· Multi-hazard warning system for flash floods, heavy rainfall, lightning and thunder storm
· Atmospheric consistency program for air pollution.
· Urban metrology
Another department where the Indian Earth Sciences Ministry has made great advancements is the Oceanic Services. These services not only contribute in providing accurate warnings but also help in boosting the economy. The Marine Fishery Advisory Services both East and West coast is one such example.
Moreover, Ocean State Forecasts (OSF) and warnings based on advanced ocean models have been able to capture wave forecast, storm surge warnings, surface currents, ocean temperatures.
India has grown leaps and bounds in the forecast sector. Whether it is the IMD or ISRO’s new updated version of disaster management portal, the Indian government can now be more vigilant and prepared for unforeseen events. The future looks bright with the IMD planning to introduce more GIS-based products that will boost the forecast capabilities further.
As a part of disaster risk reduction, early warning is a major element employed to reduce the impact of hazards (floods, landslides, storms, and forest fires). As a developing nation, India would need a more accurate and reliable early warning system that cause a huge loss to nation’s economy and loss of lives.
Generation of disaster warning is a multi-institutional endeavor. Different institutions namely, Geological Survey of India, Central Water Commission and Defense Research and Development Organization are responsible for early warning for landslides, flood and avalanches respectively, while IMD is mandated to monitor the tropical cyclones and earthquakes in the country and provide necessary information/warnings to Government officials and public for disaster mitigation.
The high-intensity cyclones- Phallin (2013), Hudhud (2014), Vardah (2016) caused much less damage to lives and property due to advanced warnings by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and timely evacuations. In 1999 the killer cyclone in Odisha had taken about 10,000 lives but Phallin, which almost had the same intensity as the super cyclone in 1999, took less than 10 lives in 2013. Similarly, timely forecast of heavy rainfall in advance made a huge difference during the recent Chennai flood. The Indian state of Tamil Nadu was well equipped to handle the situation and made appropriate arrangements to tackle the situation swiftly. The IMD was able to forecast Vardah three-and-a-half-days before the cyclone struck. The Met department can now forecast heavy rainfall up to three days in advance.
In the recent past, the country has made great strides in the disaster alert systems – be it cyclone alerts, regional tsunami warnings or heavy rainfall/flood alert system.
Early warning system refers to an integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities systems and processes that enables individuals, communities, governments, businesses and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events.
Early warning systems constitute four key components:
1. Detection, monitoring and forecasting the hazards;
2. Analyses of risks involved;
3. Dissemination of timely warnings - which should carry the authority of government;
4. Activation of emergency plans to prepare and respond.
It is essential that these components must be well coordinated among the network of responsible authorities for the system to work and provide timely information.
India being one of the nations most vulnerable to disasters needs adequate preparedness for the disasters which rely on efficient early warning systems.
Efforts to strengthen the early warning systems in India have paced in the last decade after the country was ravaged by Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in 2004.Recent success in apt predication of Phailin and Hudud by IMD reduced the degree of impact on these high intensity cyclones on life and property.
In India various Governmental Agencies such as India Meteorological Department (IMD), Central Water Commission (CWC), Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) are responsible for issuing early warning for flood, drought, cyclones, storms, heatwaves, landslides, avalanches, etc.
Cyclone Warning Division(CWD) at IMD head quarters and Area Cyclone Warning Centres (ACWC) at Chennai, Mumbai and Kolkata and Cyclone Warning Centres at Visakhapatnam, Ahmedabad and Bhubaneswar.co-ordinate and supervise cyclone warning operations in the country.
The Indian Tsunami Early Warning System established under INCOIS is responsible in automatic detection of earthquakes and for issuing the tsunami warnings and also for the deployment and maintenance of tide gauges along the Indian coast.
Flood Early Warning System (FLEWS) in Assam, one of the worst flood affected region in India is operationalised by North Eastern-Space Applications Centre (NE-SAC), a joint initiative of DOS and North Eastern Council (NEC) that provides early warning of flood in magnitude (severity), location (revenue circle/ group or cluster of villages) and probable time, High rainfall warning with location and time, post monsoon status of embankments in various flood causing rivers, etc.
Early warning systems are means by which people receive relevant and timely information in a systematic way prior to a disaster in order to make informed decisions and take action. The word system is used to refer to the interplay between an array of elements aimed at facilitating communication and prompt response to protect and aid those in need.
There are four basic elements to an early warning system where each part must function efficiently for the system to be successful:
Risk knowledge builds the baseline understanding about risks (hazards and vulnerabilities) and priorities at a given level.
Monitoring is the logical follow-on activity to keep up-to-date on how those risks and vulnerabilities change through time.
Response capability insists on each level being able to reduce risk once trends are spotted and announced — this may be through pre-season mitigation activities, evacuation or duck-and-cover reflexes, depending on the lead-time of a warning.
Warning communication packages the monitoring information into actionable messages understood by those that need, and are prepared, to hear them.
Further the information detailed before, you should know that “early warning” usually implies long lead times. For shorter lead times you can use the word “pre warning” or simply “warning”, where the former has a longer lead time than the latter. If the hazard you are analyzing is floods – which is my research field - you can use the following classification by using the response time of the basin –in this case 4 hours-:
1) Warning system: Until 4-hr lead time
2) Pre warning system: Until 6-hr lead time
3) Early warning system: Until 48-hr lead time.
Pre warning and early warning systems in this case use precipitation forecasts. In the link detailed below you can find a paper with these concepts.
Very interesting discussion! Hope to have something similar in Brazil in the near future...
I am working at the Brazilian Early Warning Center (Cemaden) and the chapter of Ilan Kelman and Mickey Glantz was and is useful to me!
I and some colleagues just made a review of some articles about EWS and participatory approaches. There are interesting articles in the bibliography. Maybe they can also be useful for more discussion about EWS. Please see: Article A Review of Studies on Participatory Early Warning Systems (...
Dear Ilan Kelman and Victor Marchezini , thank you for proving additional information about the concepts of warning systems. They are very useful for my PhD project. I am trying to build a framework which quantifies the benefits of an end-to-end flood forecasting, warning, response system (FFWRS) based on agent based modelling (ABM). The paper below describes a framework which simulates the response of a system by using ABM.
Article Agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management