With changing climate it is expected that wheat yield will decrease especially with rise in night temp but with extented duration wheat yield increases? Then what is overall effect
I think, wheat production is directly concerned to temperature. As yield increase when we extended the duration. As this extended duration again link to the temperature. For example, rain fed wheat depends on soil moisture remaining after the monsoon rains recede in September. High maximum and minimum temperatures in September (about
34/20°C), adversely affect seedling establishment, accelerate early vegetative development, reduce canopy cover, tillering, spike size and yield. Hence, sowing is typically delayed until after mid-October when seedbeds have cooled, though much of the residual soil moisture may be lost. In this connection, extended duration yield again related to temperature.
Diurnal variation affects the physiological stage of crop namely switching from vegetative to reproductive and the termination of life cycle for annuals. It is therefore highly probable that differences between day and night temperature may not be enough especially minimum threshold night temperature is not reach to trigger this change. This will definitely impact on productivity. Beyond this critical requirement higher temperature implies higher rate of biochemical reactions and synthesis that should potentially accompany an improved production, a technique developed for glasshouse production.
As mentioned by Waris, increasing the soil temperature will improve establishment and vegetative vigor thereby inducing earliness. The key element remains the switching requirement from vegetative to reproductive of the wheat and any other crop cultivated for their reproductive organs.
Points-of-thoughts from my side: 1. As non-C4-plant wheat will reduce its growth and yield-potential tremendously by rising night-temperatures. Question is whether breeding can rather quickly --- parallel to night-temperature-increase --- produce some better adaptations. 2. Alternatively check for C4-plants fit for the newly developing eco-systems evolving from climate-change; the plant-kingdom is sooo big and diverse...and many new species just wait for being selected for human nutrition and plant-based production. 3. Internationally checking for wheat-varieties from tropical-belt-areas with high altitudes: I remember the large wheat-fields in various highlands of Tanzania, scientifically and breeding-wise much supported by Canadian development support. There is much experience and many varieties. 4. In mixed crop-stands --- due to synergies in rizosphere (allelopathy)--- surprising effects may be triggered; thus try it out. 5. During nights the cooler airs in mountainous areas are "flowing" downhill. One can use that principal by assuring non-hindered streams towards the wheat-plots. Walking around the area during nights will quickly guide.
6. Triticale (X Triticosecale), a Man-made cereal grass crop obtained from hybridization of wheat (Triticum spp) with rye (Secale cereale); fantastic experience from Ethiopian highlands, where Triticale ---from University Stellenbosch in South-Africa ---- spread like bushfire with high yields and good resistances; even in lower areas it performed well and definately better than wheat there.