Let suppose, if COVID's second wave will hit then what will be the consequnces in terms of global economy? what will be the standing of real state sector and level of unemployment and inflation in future?
It is likely to be less severe than the first wave:
- Overall, the incidence is lower (the higher number of cases is due to the much higher detection capacity).
- Health care is more prepared to manage the disease.
- Lockdowns in the fashion of Spain will not be frequent, basically, because most countries could not afford it.
Real state and, particularly, unemployment should be affected by overall economic performance and inflation should not be a concern in this context. At least in the US or Western Europe, the current risk is actually deflation.
Globalization as practiced for the last 30 years (after the collapse of the Soviet Union) will be buried, and alternative pathways for global trade, travel and communication need to be developed, without sacrificing human liberty.
Otherwise, authoritarianism will become the political word model, in one or the other form. A world without free minds and markets will end up in full stagnation and decline, not to mention war and revolution. Only macro-prudence can avoid a greater global conflict of the competitors in the world arena for supremacy.
Although I believe lockdowns will effect the disease's virulance it will still continue, and break out again with equal ferocity. It is here to stay and although doctors will declare they have a cure, they will not, and anyway the disease could easily mutate. I am basing my view on the flu virus which continues to mutate and for which no cure has been found.
In 1898 a flu pandemic hit the world killing as many as covid-19 has done- so far. That pandemic ceased. In 1918 another, more virulent, flu pandemic struck killing at least 50 million and probably much more.
The human race survived.
Thank you for feedback.
I think it will bankrupt the airline and tourism industry significantly. The real estate sector will suffer due to decerase in purchasing power if we will move towards another lockdown.
In my personal opinion, the implementation of mandatory quarantines, the closure of commercial activities, and the closure of airports, was and will be necessary when facing pandemics like the current one. However, these must be accompanied by disposition by each government. In the case of Latin America, our countries are absolutely harmed, even more than by the virus and quarantine, by the same state. A state that does not support the lower strata, or small companies, that all its resources are for large companies, even despite being international. In our countries, especially in Colombia, the main cause of the economic crisis is the national government.
Given that we had a return to the usual life, without being prepared, in my personal opinion, a second epidemiological crisis is inevitable, and probably, each time, the economic effects will be more devastating, above all, due to the inability that the governors of many countries.
To encourage debate on the economic impact in this region, I share the following manuscript
Article Economy or Health, Constant Dilemma in Times of Pandemic: Th...
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