Recently, pre eleccciones surveys have shown, in many different cases, strong differences between their estimates and the results given in the polls. But this phenomenon of inaccuracy has harmed no single surveys as possible developed meters results, although this is not their naturaeza nor objective, but tmabién have detectadoserios problems and differences with the election results forecasting models specifically oriented. What happen? How can they be corrected, if possible, these issues accuracy of forecasts and surveys genersl taken as such in particular?
I don't think that the differences between estimates and results for election is important. So, I don't have any idea to correct the differences. The important thing in the election is that electors can know candidates' true intentions.
Dear Colleagues,
Good Day,
"It is not through any combinations of politicians that the outcome of an electoral campaign is decided."
------ Dominique de Villepin
Dear Ricardo, what do you mean by "successful"? That your surveys correctly predicted the final outcome, or that the best candidate won? I do not understand your question!
Best regards, Lilliana
"It is not through any combinations of politicians that the outcome of an electoral campaign is decided."
------ Dominique de Villepin
We do have palamentary elections in Serbia Today! Here is a good story about a new phenomena of blank votes.
Rise in Blank Ballots Predicted in Serbian Election
"Last week’s ProPositiv survey suggested that the upcoming April elections could see a record number of voters showing their dissatisfaction by leaving the ballot paper blank.
Stefan Aleksic, a political scientist and a publicist, told BIRN that the phenomenon reflected a global crisis in the legitimacy of political elites by resentful citizens who feel there is a lack of real democracy..."
- See more at: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/serbian-threshold-passing-blank-votes-sign-of-political-crisis-04-08-2016#sthash.5RmWUkqG.dpuf
http://www.dw.com/en/vucic-eyes-clear-victory-in-serbian-elections/a-19210618
There is no standard criteria of electoral surveys, so these are not much reliable.
Your deep rooted faith in democracy and wisdom to have collective leadership , keys them a successful motivator to electoral process . Pre-electoral surveys , popularly known as pre-poll forecast in form of opinion poll could be either way as far as their accuracy is concerned.
Electoral system choice is a fundamentally political process rather than a question to which independent technical experts can produce a single ‘correct answer’. In fact, the consideration of political advantage is almost always a factor in the choice of electoral systems—sometimes it is the only consideration—while the menu of available electoral system choices is often..Electoral participation—at least as a free choice—is also thought to increase when the outcome of elections, either at a national level or in the voter’s particular district, is likely to make a significant difference to the future direction of government. If you know that your preferred candidate has no chance of winning a seat in your particular district, what is the incentive to vote? In some electoral systems, the wasted votes can amount to a substantial proportion of the total national vote.Accountability is one of the bedrocks of representative government. Its absence may indeed lead to long-term instability. An accountable political system is one in which the government is responsible to the voters to the highest degree possible.
Dear Ricardo:
People must be educated from grade school on how to evaluate a candidate, know what are the elected official's duties, so that a person's capabilities may be judged. With education, everything will become smarter and good, so a good government be possible.
Best regards, Lilliana
In Serbia, we had election calmity for 48 ours, as on Wednesday elections will be repeated at some part of a country. There was huge cheating on the stage. Regarding the official results, 56,25 % of population voted 8 days ago. Protests are stopped for two days.
Serbian Rightists Threaten Protests Over Election Results!
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/serbian-rightists-announced-riots-if-stay-under-census-04-27-2016
Ricardo, your question of a year ago "What should be, at present, the key elements to consider for a successful electoral outcome?" has a different meaning since 2016 when BREXIT took place in the UK and when USEXIT took place in the USA.
A year ago, the issue was a succesful electoral outcome coming from the competition between different views of development within the majority rule based voting system or majority rule....Prediction was not that good as no complacency or protest behavior was assumed, but there was no systematically manafuctured chaos or fake news and events and theories in the mix....
Today the competition is between majority rule views and minority ruled views; and here standard prediction is worse as the democratic process takes place under complacency or protest behaviour, which is maximized by manafuctured chaos, and all this is not factored in the prediction/polling models explaining why they failed to predict extreme democratic outcomes such as BREXIT and a USEXIT, where the will of the minority rules....
I am approaching these issues from the point of view of complacency theory and how chaos can be linked to complacency to create democratic conditions that are extreme democratic outcome friendly.
You may find the ideas in the following article interesting and you can use them as food for thoughts:
Majority Rule Based True Democracy Under Complacency Theory: Pointing Out The Structure of Normal and of Extreme Democratic Outcomes Analytically and Graphically.
Article Majority Rule Based True Democracy Under Complacency Theory:...
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