To fully understand the question of how a war with Iran might benefit the United States, it's important to consider a range of factors that impact national interests. First, evaluate the economic implications, such as the potential effects on oil markets, global trade routes, and U.S. military expenditures. Second, consider the strategic outcomes, including the potential to influence regional power dynamics, deter nuclear proliferation, and address perceived threats from Iranian activities. Lastly, assess the geopolitical ramifications, such as strengthening alliances with regional partners, reinforcing U.S. influence in the Middle East, and projecting military power. Additionally, it's critical to weigh these potential benefits against the costs and risks associated with military conflict, including human, financial, and diplomatic consequences. Exploring these dimensions provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the complex question of how war with Iran might serve U.S. interests
An interesting question and framework provided to analyse the current situation.
If i may, it seems, from some evidence, that Iran has been a country which has been 'colonised from a distance' where direct intervention physically has been severely 'constrained' since the end of WW2.
-In August 1941 Iran was invaded and the Shah was forced to abdicate in favour +of his son.
Kindly see Link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Soviet_invasion_of_Iran
-The Shah was effectively from then on part and parcel UK and USA interests, much like his father. One, example, among the many was the Anglo-Persian oil company
Kindly see link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Persian_Oil_Company
-Iran tried to rise, via democratic processes, in 1951 to 1953 and learnt how democracy and freedom of choice can be heavily limited, pending on who proposes such
Kindly see link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
-In 1978 and 1979, Iran rose up, yet again, but was short circuited by the Guadalupe conference
Kindly see link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadeloupe_Conference
-The rise and take over of the Iranian revolution by religious parties was guided, yet again, by foreign entities
Kindly see link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36431160
-During the Iran Iraq war, Iran was supported still by foreign entities
Kindly see link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_support_for_Iran_during_the_Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_war#:~:text=Israel%20facilitated%20from%201985%20to,for%20sophisticated%20American%2Dmade%20weapons.
Jumping to more recently, Iran was yet again subjugated to 'colonialism at a distance' under the rather and very shaky evidence of WMD............
A chilling body count of the '12 day war'
Kindly see link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war#:~:text=During%20the%20Iran%E2%80%93Israel%20war,4%2C000%20people%20have%20been%20wounded.
تبعد ايران. عن النفوذ. الصيني. والروسي من الشرق الاوسط
A very interesting video discussion from Zeteo about what Iranians really think and view on the so called '12 day war'
Kindly see link: https://zeteo.com/p/what-the-media-isnt-telling-you-about?utm_source=podcast-email&publication_id=2325511&post_id=166846638&utm_campaign=email-play-on-substack&utm_content=watch_now_button&r=3kqrlp&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
R.S. Simon in 2004 published a very good and interesting book about Iraq between World War 1 and 2. The title of the book is: Iraq Between the Two World Wars: The Militarist Origins of Tyranny.
The link provided is to Google Books and provides a synopsis of the book
Kindly see link: https://books.google.it/books?id=byCtAgAAQBAJ&source=gbs_book_other_versions
The book most interestingly not only covers the building of the Iraq state, until its 'independence' in 1932, but also outlines the mistakes made by the British mandate rule in Iraq from 1915 to 1932. Most interestingly the mistakes made by the British rule were very similar to the mistakes made by the USA and its allies in Iraq between 2003 onwards.
One striking matter is that as early as 1919, the British understood that the only way to attempt to dominate Iraq was with air power.
This most interestingly is what the USA and Israel are doing to Iran. It is, seemingly, a similar strategy of air dominance to dominate the territory of Iran.
Hopefully with air dominance, the USA and Israel will not do what the British did to Iraqi civilians during their mandate period...intensive bombing of civilians, use of chemical weapons on minorities, see how the British air force in 1921 used gas against Kurds in northern Iraq , bombing of tribal institutions, bombing of agriculture and livestock, and bombing of infrastructure
A good analysis by CNN on the impact of US bombings on Iran nuclear sites
Kindly see link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctQwCGsJuhs
A short news analysis from DW, which considers how now the IAEA will have possibly considerably difficulties in monitoring Iranian nuclear activities.
Kindly see link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjwHwVFK-Pg
Hence it seems that the objective of not enabling Iran to develop nuclear weapons has actually backfired. In other words, now Iran has seemingly more motivation to develop nuclear weapons..... If this should be the case, thus the Israeli strategy of pre-emptive strikes makes the country actually more vulnerable and less safe. This is very much the same that has been provided by the war in Gaza. Israel now is far from safe and far from stable.
An interesting documentary from DW on the Iran, Isreal and USA endless war. It was originally released in 2020.
Kindly see the link: part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1x5psFk9io
Kindly see link: Part 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p41oz5x0Dok
An interesting scientific paper, published in 2023, which focuses on how the sanction regime against Iran has seen little effects on the Iranian government, but has impacted the civilian population far more.
The paper is: Kahalzadeh, H. 2023. Iran under sanctions: civilian pain without a significant political gain: an overview of Iran's welfare system and economic sanctions, The SAIS Rethinking Iran Initiative, Johns Hopkins University, Washington, D.C.
Kindly see link: https://scholarworks.brandeis.edu/esploro/outputs/workingPaper/Civilian-Pain-Without-a-Significant-Political/9924282979701921/filesAndLinks?institution=01BRAND_INST&index=0
The Holocaust Memorial Trust (HMT)has developed a conceptual framework to define what is a genocide. It is a based on stages
Kindly see link https://hmd.org.uk/learn-about-the-holocaust-and-genocides/what-is-genocide/the-ten-stages-of-genocide/
Most interestingly the premise of this conceptual framework is this: 'Genocide never just happens. There is always a set of circumstances which occur or which are created to build the climate in which genocide can take place.'
Interestingly in using such a model as provided by HMT as a checklist and applying it to the current matters in Palestinian regions of Gaza and the West Bank it is more than evident with hard fact evidence that a genocide is taking place.
Further there is now, using still the HMT model, that the same is going for the people of Iran.
"A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm" is a 1996 policy document produced by a study group led by Richard Perle for the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies in Israel, offering policy recommendations to bolster Israeli national security. How do you evaluate this document?
An interesting report provided by the UN, Human Rights Council, titled: ‘From economy of occupation to Economy of Genocide'
Kindly see Link: https://www.ohchr.org/en/documents/country-reports/ahrc5923-economy-occupation-economy-genocide-report-special-rapporteur
Dear Doctor
United States gains just boasting and I think it is playing a loser paper.
Let's protect all nations from greediness and arrogance for these lead only to afflictions to humans and even to humanity ethics and believes.
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