Dear all,
I'm working on a report regarding the European wholesale electricity market between 2005-2008. In particular, we're interested in understanding the change in assumptions and outlook pre-2008 versus post-2008. To complete this report, we need to compile forecasts of wholesale electricity prices between 2000 and present.
e.g., for natural gas prices, we have the annual observations of realised gas price ($/mmBtu) and, for each year t, we present the forecasted price going forward (say, +10 years into the future).
What is your preferred source for wholesale electricity price forecasts? The preference would be for annual data and a reputable company/source (Please provide a URL if possible).
OMEL for Spain. DUKES for UK. Nordpool and Apx. There are subscription based series from Herren, Wood MacKenzie, and IHS that would cost money to access.
If EU electricity prices behave like stock markets, don't bother. They will not be predictable past a certain point in time by any algorithm other than trend curves. Of course, if the prices are well behaved then I am sure that RIcardo's suggestions will be fine!
For long term behaviour of markets, I would tend to stay away from making point forecasts on energy prices - which includes power prices. Rather, I would rather aim to understand the dynamics of the price and volume volatility, and use scenarios to extrapolate some lessons as to how it impacts the variables that you are trying to relate to power or energy prices. As Tony mentioned, the attempt to forecast power prices beyond a short period under competitive markets, and hoping to get anywhere near what the outcomes will be, could be an exercise in futility.
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