My colleagues and I are exploring to what extend Safe System / Vision Zero objective of minimising death and serious injury can be supported by modal shift.
For example, do you know of reputable studies correlating change in severe injuries with change in percentages of trips (or VKT) taken by public transport, bicycle, motorcycle or walking? What about user-specific outcomes, such as changes in pedestrian or cyclist safety with changes in proportion of travel? (...please no research on health benefits of cycling, well covered)
Australian Road Research Board have carried out past studies reviewing the subject and providing some high-level modelling. I am interested in some more in-depth studies providing newer and more robust relationships. Any trusted references will be greatly appreciated.
Hi Chris,
I'm sorry I can't answer your question directly.
You might have already made coarse assessments based on transport models (e.g. 4 step). The safety consequences could be estimated from the changes in the amount of travel by each mode factored by crash rates per passenger or vehicle km travelled, and severities.
Unfortunately, the Safe Systems framework is too narrow to take account of the types of system changes you mention because it's beyond safe drivers, vehicles, roads and speeds.
Interestingly, WAs Towards Zero road safety strategy mentions the issue.
It's timely you asked though, because I've just finished a PhD which extends the normal narrow range of components and policy tools, and adds other elements to achieve best practice.
All of this has been known to other hazardous industries where
safety is critical, but road safety is stuck in a 90 year old simplistic paradigm.
Have a look via the Curtin Uni link and contact me at [email protected] if you'd like to talk more.
https://espace.curtin.edu.au/handle/20.500.11937/59647
Claes Tingvall, Paul Salmon, Ian Johnston and others have been complementary, although I don't have high hopes the conventional road safety industry will pick it up quickly.
I have also been talking to Peter Damen, about an ARRB webinar and a road safety project he's working o developing.
Best regards to all at ARRB, although there's probably not many who remember me from 1990!
Brett Hughes, Curtin Uni & DoT WA
Thanks for the link Brett. Spot on! There is current discussion about applying systems theory in the context of Safe System. Of course, this is what Safe Systems was about in the first place. Some are pointing out that Safe system implementation has narrowed the vision towards traditionalist policy instruments. I disagree, but encourage going back to the first principles and taking a fresh look beyond the Five Pillars.
The methods you note are the direction we are pursuing. At this point, I am keen to explore these relationships. I think shifting VKTs alone is a little problematic, as it undervalues pedestrian and cycling components.
I'll read through the thesis. Congratulations by the way!
Many thanks. I found a pretty good compendium of knowledge on the subject by Todd Litman (http://www.vtpi.org).
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