Insurance brokers are calling many people in the region of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, to add expensive earthquake insurance coverage to home policies for the New Year. Insurance should be a cost/benefit analysis in decision making based on risk/reward and subject to one's risk tolerance. Insurance companies sometimes use fear to sell a policy.
What is a reasonable likelihood, or probability of a major earthquake hitting Vancouver? Is there any scientific consensus? Just Googling it will lead one to a vast array of fear mongering videos and ill conceived estimates by journalists.
It is my understanding that the most likely epi-centre for a major quake will be off the west coast of Vancouver Island and not close to the Lower Mainland, potentially along the Cascadia Subduction Zone.
earthquake is a natural disaster that represents a risk for a population vulnerable to this risk. To define a risk, one has to consider lalea and vulnerability. for the seism, it is first necessary to identify the factors at risk notably the shaking of the tectonic plates in the craters, the demographic pressure, the economic impact, the material damage that the seismic can cause. the combination of all these factors will define the probability of the occurrence of the risk of earthquake in a given region.
I am aware of the factors involved with risk analysis of an earthquake, however, I was wondering if anyone had specifically done it in a scientific way for the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Final decision for insurance will be on a site-specific and risk tolerance basis.
I saw one estimate of a > 8 on the Richter Scale occurring as a 1 in 3 chance over the next 50 years, but that included the west of Vancouver Island Cascadia Fault Zone. This estimate did not come with any scientific data backing the prediction. Any other thoughts / suggestions?
I AGREE WITH ASSURENCE but I think that before we get there, it is important to analyze the risk, the vulnerability of the Canadian population, develop hazard maps and vulnerability related to the seism, see even the establishment of an early warning system to detect the risk, analyze and prevent the population so that the latter is prepared to face the risk.
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