Without too much focus on the regular talk like "indium is a rare materal", "CIGS can be produced very cheap", and so on. What do you think is the future of CIGS, is there already any new technology coming to replace it?
Dear Asliddin,
The CIGS solar cell technology is one of the second generation thin film technologies that has relatively high efficiency. The market data given in the attached link, show that it occupies the place before the CdTe solar cells and after the first generation silicon based solar cells., For more information please see the paper titled: Review and Comparison of Different Solar Energy Technologies given in the Link: http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/research/review-and-comparison-of-solar-technologies/Review-and-Comparison-of-Different-Solar-Technologies.pdf. Its technology is well developed and well approved.
To speak from its displacement is not logical as there is already factories working with this technology and therefore their production will last in the near future time. There is some thin film technologies that compete with CIGS. I think they will exit together because the demand on photovoltaics continuously increasing because of the limited fossil fuel resources.
This my vision for the photovoltaics. Coexisting together rather than displace each other. The demand accommodates all.
Best wishes
Dear colleagues,
Thank you for your answers.
I have started this topic so I (we) could have a life discussion on what is going on in the field of PV. Of course we believe in the coexistence of the technologies, but as most of us specialize in certain technology, this discussion could help us (me) have an overview of all the new things happening in the field. One would argue that reading some existing review would do as well, but in my opinion review is a compilation of data and a discussion is a brainstorming that can bring out the real “solution”. Of course, solution is a relative concept.
Dear colleagues,
having experience in CdTe as well as cristalline PV I just want to add that current publications from ISE show market share of CdTe clearly ahead of CIGS. Due to the current production process for CIGS modules using lots of high vacuum process steps, the production cost is hard to reduce to the level of CdTe which uses LPCVD deposition and hence higher production throughput.
On the other hand CIGS has a much better reputation with respect to toxicity of the materials used. CdTe requests a quite sophisticated control of the production process and the product life cycle to keep the risk at a level comparable to other PV technologies.
Currently we have around 50 GW peak global production capacity for PV. Based on the assumptions in the articles cited, a 20% share of PV for global electricity supply and 30 years module lifetime some 180 GW production capacity would be needed for a "steady state" future. CdTe currently has around 10 GW annual production potential restricted by the availability of Te. So there is some headroom for new technologies to come.
I don't see CIGS being replaced in the near future.
http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/de/downloads/pdf-files/aktuelles/photovoltaics-report-in-englischer-sprache.pdf
CIGS seem to be stuck in an awkward place between established Si PV and emerging perovskite-based solar cells. There are relatively few large companies making CIGS cells, but that doesn't mean there is no future for them.
Although indium has been tagged as rare earth/expensive material, Indium is more abundant on the crust of the earth than silver, which has way more production rate compared to indium. As demand for indium increases and cost-effective recycling measures are introduced the indium production will increase and cost will also go down. There is already too much of Silicon and CdTe product out there, no company wants to launch a new product without selling inline batch production. We need to realize there is a lot of money and times goes into research and development of new materials and processing techniques, and companies want to make most of their existing technology before launching a new one, unless they feel threat from a competitor.
CIGS efficiency is now higher than that of multicrystalline Si
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
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