Working on virtual management of PV system networks, I came accross with "ramp-rate control" that seems pretty plausible-simple scenario. The question crossed my mind is what is the role of PV system performance forecast in a power grid where PV generation is just a suplimentary, i.e. PV generation is a small part of the total capacity. In this case you don't very much rely on PV generation and you can cut it off if it cause fluctuation, why forecast it?
in the short term, PV is pretty stable. partial clouding is easily predictible in the short term.
you simply forecast it for when the size of installed PV becomes significant.
it doesn't have to make up a significant percentage of your system before it becomes worthy of attention. but if it's as big as a large load, such that it creates a sudden large deficit of few MW, then it becomes necessary to control it.
simply discarding it defeats the original purpose of PV and Wind, which is reducing consumption of fossil fuel and reducing pollutant emissions.
@Asliddin Komilov
Ramp-rate control is done by either PV power curtailment or using storage.
However, power curtailment cannot deal with the irradiance ramp-down fluctuations, and energy storage is still rather expensive which makes it more difficult implementing PV systems with ramp-rate control.
Therefore, short-term prediction is necessary.
In general, the necessity for short-term PV prediction increases by increasing the PV penetration in the grid while this necessity decreases by decreasing the price of storage technologies.
Although photovoltaic (PV) systems installation may show small power generations, but may have negative impacts on distribution grids performance. when higher penetration of PV from different customers is applied . Moreover, the request to connect the PV system on the distribution grids is increasing. As a consequence, the PV capacity assessments and enhancement are required.
Hesan Ziar could you please elaborate on this part of your statement " However, power curtailment cannot deal with the irradiance ramp-down fluctuations".
Asliddin Komilov When the irradiance decreases and there is no storage, it is not possible to keep up with the ramp-control regulation (of course depends on how severe the irradiance decreases). Because some extra power should be fed into the grid but the PV with no storage and sudden decrease of irradiance cannot handle it. This situation can be more difficult to control when the load demand is also increasing. In such a scenario, if the operator predicts the irradiance drop, unnecessary loads can be removed or the diesel generators can be kicked-in for example.
yes, it is very important
Mankind has used and still consumes a large proportion of the planet's non-renewable energy resources such as oil, natural gas and coal to meet its energy needs. In just the past two decades, other renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaics and wind energy have become somewhat related to generating electricity in the world.
Thesis Short-term solar irradiance forecasting and photovoltaic sys...
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