I couldn't find any literature that could determine the difference between these two statistical theories.
Probability says about likelihood and a statistical term. The following are related articles.
http://www.bearbiology.com/fileadmin/tpl/Downloads/URSUS/Vol_20_2/Ursus_20_2__Viteri_and_Waits.pdf
http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2010_brinkman_t001.pdf
http://www.bowdoin.ws/faculty/v/vdouhovn/pdf/douhovnikoff-intra-clonal-variation.pdf
http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2156-10-79.pdf
http://www.zelnio.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Zelnio-et-al-2010-Chorocaris-primer-note.pdf
http://www.kora.ch/malme/05_library/5_1_publications/L/Lucchini_et_al_2002_Noninvasive_molecular_tracking_of_wolves.pdf
http://humboldt-dspace.calstate.edu/bitstream/handle/2148/685/boundthesis.pdf?sequence=1
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