Climate Change 2013_The Physical Science Basis

(IPCC_ Intergovernmental panel on climate change)

"The Working Group I contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) considers new evidence of climate change

based on many independent scientific analyses from observations of the climate system, paleoclimate archives, theoretical

studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. It builds upon the Working Group I contribution to the

IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and incorporates subsequent new findings of research. As a component of the

fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate

Change Adaptation (SREX) is an important basis for information on changing weather and climate extremes."

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Climate Change Analysis and Adaptation Responses

Prepared for Informing IFAD’s Country Strategic Opportunities Program 2012 – 2017 for Viet Nam

It seems important to me to conceptualize this kind of question carefully in the context of risk theory. True, vulnerability will rise with climate change, if that change indeed leads either to new hazards in a given area, or to higher magnitude (we can also expect an overall higher risk if hazard events will increase in frequency, and also here is an implicit, though not well understood link with vulnerability: if events happen more frequently people have less time to recover and are thus more susceptible to adverse effects, i.e. are more vulnerable)

At the same time vulnerability in many please in Asia continues to increase because of changes that are not directly related to hazards or climate change: urbanization, population grows, land degradation. A rapidly growing number of people live in precarious conditions (just look at cities such as Manila) – even with a constant hazard exposure their collective vulnerability grows (and this affects different types of vulnerability: physical [from poor housing, cramped spaces, but also due to surface sealing, blocked drainage), social [marginalization, growing numbers of recent migrant to urban areas with poor network support), institutional [authorities barely coping with these challenges, environmental, etc.)

So it’s not just climate change.

Thanks Norman Kerle for your discussion.

My research focus more about the impact of strong wind force to housing in coastal area in Vietnam. Vietnam in particular has been affected by the climate change in the last 50 years. In fact, the average temperature has increased 0.5 - 1.0 Degree Celsius, the normal sea level has risen by 20 cm and the number of typhoons and tropical depressions has grown from 7 to 8 per year (Center for excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistances, 2012).

The number of typhoon and strong wind speed have been increasing year by year. It has become significant problems today for many countries especially Vietnam. According to the World Bank 2013, Vietnam has an average wind speed between 80 - 90 mph. However, climate change and the effect from the North Pacific Ocean can cause the possibility of exceeding wind gusts of 200 mph.

it is extremely difficult to clearly distinquish between cc and climate variability. I even would say it is impossible to contribute any hazard exclusively to cc although especially politicians often like to do this (or deny this).