Hi Mila

This is a critical question indeed! The travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors have been the worst-affected sectors during this pandemic.

However, as countries relax the restrictions on domestic and international travel, tourism and hospitality, I envisage two likely scenarios. The Governments and the Central Banks across the world may have to be vigilant and prepared to respond to any of the two scenarios.

Scenario 1: In spite of the relaxations, people may remain cautious of travelling domestically and internationally (by air, road and waterways), avoid visiting tourist places and staying in hotels. If this happens, the travel, tourism, and hospitality sectors would have a slow recovery and growth would remain low for a prolonged period. One more factor that could affect the demand is the 'higher prices' due to additional cost involved in sanitisation. This would be a added burden on these industries.

The dampened demand for the services of these three industries in turn would have a cascading effect on the rest of the economy (particularly on the crude oil sector). Demand remains muted generally and inflation remains low for a long time.

In this scenario, governments and central banks would be constrained to continue the fiscal and monetary stimulus for a long time (just like as it was post the 2008 global financial crisis). Interest rates would continue to be low for sometime.

Scenario 2: As countries relax, having spent so much time indoors, people could rush out to travel and tour outside. There could be a surge in the pent-up demand for travel, tourism and hotel services. Prices could spike quickly having a cascading effect on the crude oil and other prices. Sudden surge in international travel may have destabilising impact on the exchange rates also. With inflation expected to go up, central banks may end up reversing the interest rate easing cycle.

We will have to wait and watch which scenario unfolds.

Good luck.

Arun

Since the middle of March 2020 when many countries are announced the lock-down and quarantine measures, it is noticed that millions on travel related jobs are unfortunately disappeared, hotels across the globe closed their doors, travel agencies faced a problem with flight booking cancellation, resorts and historically places are become isolated of visitors, workers at these places became with no jobs. Only few countries are benefited from such crisis like Turkey, Spain & Malta who are kept their hotels and airports opened for tourists and students from North Africa or Middle east countries which they are stuck in different European countries and later their governments used the 3 mentioned countries as a destination to return them back to their homes. Based on your raised question, I think that these are some of the issues that have impacts and effects on tourism, travelling and hospitality industry in both short and long term consequences.

Definitely a bad one. There are prognosis that it will cut the tourism industry in Croatia by more than 50%. And there is the spillover effect to food industry, entertainment industry, etc.

If Scenario 1 (as I mentioned earlier) unfolds, another likely event that may occur is consolidation in these sectors (travel, tourism, hospitality, and even food and entertainment industries). Firms may engage in merger and acquisitions to stay afloat.

Hello dear Mila: Article Tourism The Great Patient of Coronavirus COVID-2019

I am with the same openion to Sotiris Folinas - author of the presigious article ie recommended by me . It is also included in Covid19 oustanding Research project in RG .

Tourism activities have recorded low turn out and estimated income reduction by 80%, while this happened, some animals died and some contracted some diseases due to improper caring and revenue reduction.

Transportation in my country although restricted, people still find ways to travel in the night on road. This leads to hike in price of T-fare across all the states.

While some industries folding up, Hospitals experienced high turn out of patients even more than the cases of Covid-19. Some of the cause were still hidden. This made medical doctors to work endlessly. Some doctors were reported to have contacted Covid-19, which make some to run away for the fear of contracting the virus. Government has invested more in the cause of find head way to the solutions.

A lot of people lost their jobs world wide . Even after relief of lockdown , it will not be like before pandemic . I think people will not travel for tourism this year .

I consider that it is a good time to think about the vulnerability of destinations that only depend on tourism as an economic activity. Here in Mexico, people from cities such as Cancun are suffering unemployment because of the low occupancy rate, which could be seen as a good opportunity to visualize new ways of planning, introducing more sustainable tourism activities as well as implementing other economic activities.

I would answer from another perspective. The impact on wild life and animal orphanages which is mostly depending on tourists donations. How are they funding themselves now? This is an interesting topic

Worst impacted is the hospitality and tourism industry. All the beneficiaries of the development of Hospitality Sector are suffering a lot, at least in India.