Dear All,
Here you can see the Standard & Poor's brief assessment on the economic consequences of climate change
https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1318252&SctArtId=236925&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=8606813&sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20240514-20:34:43
They prepared two interesting pictures on vulnerability of countries and that of prosperity:
Dear Andras,
You should update the stats on number of optimists!. You know very well that many of 151.281 scientists (I assume it is the sum of topic followers)are not very active in Q&A.
The impacts of climate change include the loss of biodiversity, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, and acidification of the oceans. Economists have attempted to quantify these impacts in monetary terms, but these assessments can be controversial.
The following link discusses Projected economic impacts of climate change on Irish agriculture.
http://www.trocaire.org/resources/policyandadvocacy/projected-economic-impacts-climate-change-irish-agriculture
Dear Andras,
The figure you copied and the article you refer to sums it up succinctly. I would also use the term "food security", as it has further implications than "agriculture and economy".
The Australian Government have their own solution for the problem. They have banned the term "climate" from their recent budget papers, slashed funding related to climate research and policy, and must think they can get away with it. The figure you reproduced may suggest they may, indeed, be able to get away with it, but there is more than "agriculture and economy" and "renewable energy", and floods and fires in Australia have been worse in recent years than they have been for a very long time. Needless to say, that is also a component of the Australian economy.
Regards,
Hans
You could add that these areas will then turn into carbon sources, as happened in the Amazon following droughts, thus aggravating the effects of climate change. See:
Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim J-H, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 660-684.
Interesting question. I am bit surprized to see the fig. Middle east is less vulnerable what have they considered. Food security or the environment?
The problem in adressing climate change is the bias that exists between developed and under developed. Except for serious efforts in EU; US, BRISK and China are not looking at emissions seriously. GHG, pollutants all sort are continously added to the atmosphere with arguments and counter arguments of who is the biggest emittor. The hadest hit are not looked at in Africa, India, Banglasesh. The topic deserve serious effort on global scale. Unfortunately these big CC meetings have not been very helpful.
The impacts will be in different pace but it is sure that it will have herculean impacts on the humanity much beyond the agriculture and economic aspects.
Governments are unable to provide effective solutions with the reasons of low funding.
Dear Andras, It is interesting world spatial impact of chimate change. It looks like those countries in tropical zone may be highly vulnerable to climate change.There might be many factors contribute to the impacts, which could be rainfall, drought, fllod,disaster, rising temperature, etc.
Dear Hans,
The causes of the innate change of our world, we are experiencing now, are subject of many discussions depending mostly on particular group interests. The consequences of these changes are multiple. This thread may be a mini forum to widen our knowledge and to recognise points of others.
Dear Saif and Choen,
Unfortunately, the cited source has not given detailed data or results of thorough studies but adding our knowledge and experiences on the subject we can contribute to it. The more questions and comments we have, the deeper we can penetrate into the unknown area of this situation.
Changing climate can cause many effects on agriculture and economy such as decreasing the cultivation production. If the production decrease, there will be a considrable change in cultivar products, then economy will decline because country buy most of its necessary cultivars from other countries.
Climate can change many activities like going to work. Bad climate turn every good condition to the bad one and vice versa.
Dear András,
i think this is a general problem of different scales. You cannot answer this question on a global or county scale (like shown on the map). For Southern Ecuador for example different warming trends are predicted for the whole county whereas precipitation trends seem to be regionally more different. For the eastern escarpment of the Andes no precipitation changes or maybe a slight decreas of precipitaion are expected whereas the coastal area of Southern Ecuador might be affected by increasing precipitation amounts. Consequently, local farmers at the coastal plain (which is naturally dominated by a semi decidous dry forest) will eventually profit from these changes (i am writing eventually because we have also to think about extreme events like more frequent droughts) whereas land use on the eastern escarpment might be not affected et al (again, extrem events are not considered).
Changing the climate can affect directly the agriculture by means of retention of nutrients. Higher temperature results to higher rate of decomposition. This means that if the general climate of a certain area , wherein there is agriculture, suddenly rises the soil in the land will not have enough time to build up nutrients for the species to use. This will lead to the lessening of nutrients to be used by species thus may lead to competitive exclusion.
As we know, agriculture is a big contributor to economy especially in countries like the Philippines. If there is a decline in the field of agriculture there will surely be a direct impact in the economy.
Dear Thorsten,
Dear All,
I feel not to try to answer climate change is the worst scenario. The challenge is quite big: the future of our descendants. Not to do anything but to drink one more beer: is it the choice of our generation?
Certainly, the best solution would be to act together at world, nation and individual level. The most important thing would be to change our way of life towards our environment.
Could you write the efforts your country or yourself started or decided to do in order to prevent the black (?) future?
Dear András,
towards my opinion "not to do anything" is not an option. I think the easiest way is to start on a personal level (use your bicycle, dont throw away food etc, all the little things all of us know, but we have to do it!). As scientists we have the chance to investigate global change and its different aspects and we are also able to inform oher people about global change and its consequences. This starts at schools and ends at scientific or political meetings. On a national or political scale the problem is much more complex. In this context e.g. economical interest are often much more important than other factors.
Dear All,
Let us see the people’s evaluation on importance of climate change: 15 question followers, 9 contributors; information was sent to 151.281 scientists.
I am glad the rate of optimists is so high!
Dear Andras,
You should update the stats on number of optimists!. You know very well that many of 151.281 scientists (I assume it is the sum of topic followers)are not very active in Q&A.
The impacts of climate change include the loss of biodiversity, sea level rise, increased frequency and severity of some extreme weather events, and acidification of the oceans. Economists have attempted to quantify these impacts in monetary terms, but these assessments can be controversial.
The following link discusses Projected economic impacts of climate change on Irish agriculture.
http://www.trocaire.org/resources/policyandadvocacy/projected-economic-impacts-climate-change-irish-agriculture
Dear Behrouz,
I might think these people, the many thousands of scientist are not active because they may be aware that things become better even without their contribution. And these people are brain-workers with sophisticated ethics. (:- ) or (:-( ?
Thanks for the link!
Thus, Irish scientists are busy, are not they?
Dear All,
As most of scientists are not really interested in climate change, here you can listen to top climate change songs:
http://music.tutsplus.com/articles/top-8-songs-about-climate-change--audio-2734
Which one is the best?
Dear All,
Loneliness of Homo sapiens at the masked ball organised on an iceberg!
HI Dear Andras
as i am living in the region with destroyed large lake "Hamoun " in IRAN ,I am sure future is dark in this place and its result change climate and lack of water so dust,sand blowing ,unhealthy condition and many items make worse future for next generation,international activity is less than what i predict to here and even they rejected me as climate refuge in Sweden,developed countries just make profit and enjoy life with cost losing our life...need more responsibility from rich countries but still so far as i know...
Dear Mahdi,
Many thanks for your testimony on your local experiences and behaviour pattern of sophisticated societies.
I am sure all of us (?) are waiting for testimonies of climate change!
Dear Andras,
A very important topic and question indeed!
My discussion is related to consequences of climate change on agriculture
Climate change will have an effect on local agriculture and the net result could be harmful or beneficial or mixed. Though there are beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization (rise of CO2) on yields, however, there is likelihood that the quality of agricultural product (micronutrients) will decrease under increased CO2 fertilization. Sea level rise would result in inundation of farmland threatening agriculture in low-lying coastal areas. The demand for irrigation is expected to rise in a warmer climate, causing increased competition between different water users. The warmer climates are more favourable for the proliferation of insect pests. A warmer climate would enable more tropical pests, parasites and pathogen species to spread northwards and southwards. Climate change will have both direct and indirect impacts on fish stocks that are exploited commercially. A recent study found that 45 Australian warm temperate fish have colonized and shifted in their pole ward distribution towards south i.e. region of cool temperate Tasmanian region associated with rises in sea temperature. Increases in CO2 levels will make the ocean more acidic, adversely affecting many organisms that use calcium carbonate for their skeletons such as corals, molluscs and some phytoplankton.
And realizing this important area/aspect we have recently published a book entitled “Climate change and agricultural food production –impacts, vulnerabilities and remedies”. A summary of the book can be accessed via ResearchGate (see the weblinks)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261178054_Climate_Change_and_Agricultural_food_production_Impacts_vulnerabilities_and_remedies?ev=prf_pub
Book Climate Change and Agricultural Food Production: Impacts, Vu...
No need to think on the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture and economy, We are witness of its occurrence and actual consequences !
I also think that those who wish to get details shoud consult the IPCC reports and her ethe chapters on agriculture, but reflections on how poverty relates to food insecurtioty are equally important.
Food science has a role to play to achieve food security, but its importance is often seen too high. The assumption that too little food is produced to feed everybody on the planet is incorrect. Actually enough food statistically is around, but not everybody has access to what is available. Food science can cause increase in the cost of food making it unaffordable for poor people.
The Green Revolution is an example for this. High Yielding Varieties cost money, fertilizers, pesticides and other high costs for external inputs make agriculture costly. Still plant science can help to better adapt agriculture for example to a changing climate.
One aspect that brings issues around food security together is the sustainable livelihood approach. Of course livelihood security is a concept much broader than food security, but there are a lot of overlaps, especially in times of climate change.....
Crucial is to keep the basis of food production is good shape. Environmental degradation is very dangerous from such perspective. Second is the distribution / access to food, which is to remove poverty. To better understand what is needed one needs to be aware of the different facets of food security.
Food security is a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life
This is how the FAO defines food security. It combines food production, distribution and consumption, looks into cultural and individual food preferences and also at quality aspects of food both from a nutrition perspective as well as from the perspective of food safety. Climate / environmental changes can have impacts on all these aspects, on food production, food distribution / access and food consumption.
Food production and climate change
all food crops have their optimum what climatetic conditons such as temperature, rainfall, etc are concerned. Especially extremes (too cold, too hot, too wet, too dry) can have devasting impacts. Some plants can tolerate a wide range of conditions, while other plants are rather little flexible to adapt to changing climatic conditons. In addition natural hazards (floods, cyclones, droughts) can have devasting impacts destroying crops in the fields. This all does not mean that only negative impacts are from climate change to agriculture. E.G. the temperate zones towards the poles will have warmer climates allowing longer vegetation periods, longer for crops like wheat. The impacts thus have to be established in regional or even sub-regional dimensions.
Access to food and climate change
this addresses in particular the changes of food prices as a result of climate change. Here in particular countries are effected that already now import big parts of their food requirements, like Kiribati, Tuvalu and other atoll states. Already today food imports make much of their imports and have very negative impacts on their BoP situation. On the micro-level afford rising food prices. They have to change to cheaper foods, often of lesser quality.
McCarthy, J. F., & Obidzinski, K. (2017). Framing the food poverty question: Policy choices and livelihood consequences in Indonesia. Journal of Rural Studies, 54, 344-354.
Cramer, L., Huyer, S., Lavado, A., Loboguerrero, A. M., Martínez Barón, D., Nyasimi, M., ... & van Wijk, M. (2017). Methods Proposed to Evaluate the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Food and Nutrition Security in Central America and the Dominican Republic.
Moragues-Faus, A., Sonnino, R., & Marsden, T. (2017). Exploring European food system vulnerabilities: Towards integrated food security governance. Environmental Science & Policy, 75, 184-215.
Chandra, A., McNamara, K. E., Dargusch, P., Caspe, A. M., & Dalabajan, D. (2017). Gendered vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers to climate change in conflict-prone areas: A case study from Mindanao, Philippines. Journal of Rural Studies, 50, 45-59.
Dear All,
What each of us should watch: Before the flood
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEqBduQIx-Q
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