According to worldometers website, so far (by June 23, 2020) in Africa the total number of cases is about 310, 000 and the total death is 8,100. What do you think is the reason? Do you think this will continue?
Thanks
Multiple factors: earlier border closures and controls, Less connected part of the world for travel (or less mobility), Better immune system, less testing, etc.
Perhaps Africa is the least affected in terms of reported number of Covid-19 cases due to low testing rate. On the aspect of the recovery and fatality rates, the general immune system of Africans is very crucial issue to consider.
Genetic factor, immunity, food habit, life style, prevailing environmental conditions- all these factors contribute more or less to the lower mortality. Along with these other factors may be responsible like early shutdown, travel restrictions etc.
Late comer advantage for safey rules, demographic structure, & low testing.
It is very easy to see a small part of the picture and not realize there are many factors involved. This is because human psychology and our social environments tend to make people simplify, especially when a situation is novel, uncertain and complex (with multiple interacting factors). Looking at the big picture, people’s understanding of COVID information (including statistics and possible causes), can be seen in terms of 4 categories:
1. Human behavior (usual and new): This includes people’s usual behaviors (e.g. amount of socializing, focus on hygiene, extent of travel), new rules and regulations (e.g. what the government imposes and advises, and when this was introduced), uptake of new rules and regulations (e.g. people’s understanding and acceptance of new advice), and changes in behavior (irrespective of government) due to factors such as fear and social responsibility.
2. Epidemiological, medical and geographical: This includes population density, effect of climate on transmission and health, quality of medical services (e.g. number of doctors, equipment and medications), access to medical services, access to clean water and nutritional food, and natural immunity (e.g. based on genetics or previous exposure to viruses).
3. Accuracy of facts and figures: This includes problems with testing (e.g. how much testing is done and the accuracy of testing), problems with mortality rates (e.g. amount of testing on all people who have died), and the interpretation of statistics.
4. Point in Cycle. It is important to realize that pandemics affect different regions at different times and that a virus can come in waves (increasing or decreasing over time).
All of this (and much more) should be considered when addressing any question related to the COVID situation. Unfortunately, people tend to simplify (in every aspect of their lives) and so only look at some aspects of any situation. This happens for multiple reasons, e.g. it's easier, and it makes a person feel more in control when life is simpler. Life isn't simple - it is highly complex and it is part of human nature to diminish or hide the complexity.
In Africa when we look at terms of the reported number of Covid-19 cases is lower relative to other contents due to the low testing rate. The rate indicates a number of peoples tested with the total population in Africa.
Its the way pandemics march from the area in which the infection started to the rest of the world following the global human and commerce intercommunication routes.
Lots of issues are there. Less tourist friendly as well as isolated sometimes due to war and of course inadequate testing are the major factors so far, but Africa is a time bomb waiting to explode anytime.
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