What are the major challenges for European energy security today? Can US shale gas and LNG become an alternative to Russian gas in Europe?

EU should look for alternatives for Russian natural gas. This gas becomes bloody and aggresive. I think that shale gas and any other clean alternative may be appropriate.

Best regards,

Anatoliy

Ivica Toljan

The greatest challenges for the European energy security today are: will EU members establish a centralized strategic planning or stay fragmented nationally. At this moment, the „German“ model, with huge penetration of Renewable Energy Sources mitigates security risks of energy supply, but jeopardises the development of a liberalised internal EU energy market.

It is not acceptable to develop a liberalized market and incentive measures for building RES.

The new US gas exploitation technology gives positive results at the moment, but it is too early to talk about the quality and side effects

Dominik Smyrgała

However, the problem is not "evenly distributed". In Poland, natural gas stands only for about 15% of energy mix (though it may change in the future if the EU maintains its anti-coal stance), and about 1/3 of that is produced domestically. Possible shale gas production could transform the country into a self-sufficient one in that respect. Moreover, I hope that we will find a good way of finishing the project of Swinoujscie-Omisalj gas pipeline. It would connect two LNG terminals which (if supplied) would create an entirely new logic of gas trade in Central Eastern Europe. I hope that Eraldo and Dalibor together with our guys in Poland, as well as the Czechs and Hungarians will make that happen :-).

Well, Dominik this is a very interesting answer. About EU, i think that in this moment the „USA shale gas revolution“ does make impact on the EU gas market and in the future EU energy strategy must be based on viable assessments and commercially reliable. However, construction of LNG terminals in different countries within the EU and diversification of sources of supply is geopolitical imperative and good alternative to reduce the EU dependency from the gas supply from Russia.

Dominik, I see here also a role for Darko :-) I agree with your point of view and I have not more to say. It starts to be Croatian - Polish discussion, maybe it's good for the project :-)

Best regards for everyone

I think the main task for an energy policy of the EU is to make clear and competitive gas market like in the US. Ability to select their gas supplier will enable for Europeans to reduce energy costs and improve an energy security. A similar problem is also facing Ukraine.

... competitive, more transparent and more liquid. Gas prices for example should be transparent in the EU to protect from abusing dominant position by external suppliers.

If you looked data from Platts-Bentek, you can see that the Ukraine crisis has had no effect on the price of gas in the EU (Russia’s share of gas imports to the EU has, increased in 2014.), and dont forget that cost of Russian gas on Asia market is not commercially viable.

Darko, I agree with your point of view that diversification of sources of supply is good alternative to reduce the EU dependency from the gas supply from Russia and the security of gas supply is the central issue of the EU energy politics

Dominik Smyrgała

O, witamy Pana Prezesa :-).

Right, transparency in pricing should be the most important feature of the gas trading system. Right now the import prices are kind of "classified" (trade secrets) which is a serious obstacle to the development of the market.

Dominik, please! It's an English-speaking discussion :-) There's no doubt about it, though under certain conditions it could be disclosured. I can imagine legal measures of such a disclosure.

Dalibor Pudić

Supply and demand influence on the price. With a larger number of supply routes or supplier price will be lower, and greater security of supply. Also, security of supply and price are inversely proportional, it is difficult to look for a great security of supply and low price. Any new investment increase the price of supply or reduce the price of delivery.

I think the future of EU energy security is in diversity of the sources and replacing Russian natural gas for CEE's shale gas.

So initial estimates by the US Department of Energy in 2011 pegged out Polish shale reserves as the largest in Europe. Ukraine has Europe's 3rd largest shale gas reserves at 42 trillion cubic feet (1.2 trillion cubic meters).

It is enough for all Europe for above 100 years.

András Bozsik

Dear All,

I am sorry, this question has nothing to do either with science or progression. The way of future is to create a new energy structure. The two main ways of this structure should be to economise energy consumption and to use as quickly and radically as possible the alternative opportunities: sun, wind, sea, etc. and to improve the efficiency. Gas and oil are limited resources.

Placing these resources in the centre of the energy issue serves corporation and political interests and objectives.

Gas and oil use do not represent the sustainability.

It's an idealistic view that in a short term we can replace current energy sources with RES. Most of the sources you mentioned are unstable and need to be backed up by for example flexible gas generators. Such a situation can be changed in the future due to the progress in energy storage (efficient and economically viable) etc. Energy efficiency works also only to some extent. Any idea how to replace gas from the chemistry? In a short and medium term we have to use available energy resources. In natural gas I subsribe to those who argued for diversification. As Europe we need to develop truly competitive internal gas market, build interconnectors and try to find our chances in R&D (shale gas).

P.S. Talking about interconnectors, the EU funding is the crucial factor for diversification. Gaz-System (Polish TSO) and its partners may receive funding for pipelines connecting Poland and Lithuania, Poland and Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. We're waiting for the final decision from the Commission.

András, I investigate this issue relatively the energy system of Ukraine. There are reliable scientific results, which are now accepted for publication. Personally, I am opposed to developing relations with Gazprom. It would be deadlock from the perspective of sustainable development in Europe. I like the idea of energy independence and green economy. In this respect, Iceland's economy is a pattern.

(18.12.2014.)

Putin - EU must decide on gas via new route

"To a big extent, this depends on European countries. Whether they would like to have stable, absolutely guaranteed, risk free energy supply from Russia, which they need. It will be good if we get it working. Via Greece we can reach Macedonia, and on to Serbia, and then to Baumgarten in Austria. If they are not interested then we won’t do it"

At this point, according to available data, the largest identified deposits of shale gas in the EU Member States and are in Poland and Germany (Central Europe), Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania (South-Eastern Europe), United Kingdom, France, Sweden and Denmark. But, as you know, some EU member states, such as Bulgaria, Czech Republic, France and Netherlands , at this point it is very explicitly and strongly opposed to shale gas drilling.... Perhaps we could say that at this point (the near future 3-7 years) quite small chance of the European shale gas ... ???

Fadel Djamel

I think that Russia is an important supplier for Europe. But energy security of Europe is based on the diversification of suppliers. Certainly that Algeria supplies gas to Europe through two pipelines that cross the mediterranean through Spain and Italy. To overcome the gas deficit attributed to recent events between Ukraine and Russia, the européeens countries must undertake appropriate decisions. There is another project of gas pipeline linking the Algerian town north-west to the Sardaine. This project has not yet led to a variety of reasons that I do not know. Certainly that LNG can also play a role, but as long as the gas producing countries are embarking on projects rather expensive liquefaction units. Shale gas is still a way to exploit it, but it's not so easy because you have to meet environmental standards not lucidées encores. The case of Algeria, which holds the 3rd World reserves of shale gas is experiencing a fight against people (associations and others) who are against exploitation of this gas could cause environmental problems.

Regards

S H Hengky

Wow, it is so many environmental economic and political economic behind it. I suggest that the developed country is the key players on it.

Illustrating my previous entries, I'd like to share with you a document from the European Financial Congress about a security of supply. Looking forward for any comments from you...

https://www.linkedin.com/company/european-financial-congress

http://www.efcongress.com/sites/default/files/imce/efcs_position_on_security_of_gas_supply_in_the_eu.pdf

Gazprom said recently it will begin construction of Turkish Stream pipeline in June (Kostis Geropoulos)

http://www.neurope.eu/article/botas-ex-ceo-says-putins-turkish-stream-will-beat-eus-pipeline/

Gazprom reveals Turkish Stream pipeline price tag

First string of Turkish Stream pipeline to cost $4.72Bln

http://en.trend.az/business/economy/2423519.html

Darren Bisby-Boyd: We must put people first, not fracking

http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/darren-bisby-boyd-we-must-put-people-first-not-fracking-1-6919388

Energy Security is National Security

February 28, 2006., Senator Barack Obama

" ... So why can't we do this? Why can't we make energy security one of the great American projects of the 21st century?The answer is, we can. The President's energy proposal would reduce our oil imports by 4.5 million barrels per day by 2025. Not only can we do better than that, we must do better than that if we hope to make a real dent in our oil dependency. With technology we have on the shelves right now and fuels we can grow right here in America, by 2025 we can reduce our oil imports by over 7.5. million barrels per day - an amount greater than all the oil we are expected to import from the entire Middle East.."

http://obamaspeeches.com/054-Energy-Security-is-National-Security-Governors-Ethanol-Coalition-Obama-Speech.htm

Gassing up Europe

Slumping prices and sagging demand in Asia are making Europe more interesting for gas exports. (By Sara Stefanini)

http://www.politico.eu/article/lng-gas-europe-china-japan-energy/

".. Energy supply diversification is a key piece of the Commission’s energy union proposal, and LNG is touted as one of the prime alternatives to Russian pipeline imports.::"

“Even if the price of LNG is a bit higher than marketplace prices, we see that the over-supply of LNG has a very positive role in decreasing the price of pipeline gas,” Latvia’s Economic Minister Dana Reizniece-Ozola said in June, during her government’s European Council presidency.

Polish terminal to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) Swinoujscie on the Baltic Sea coast will be fully ready for commercial exploitation in the second quarter of 2016, published by the Polish gas company Polskie LNG.

The terminal was originally scheduled to be completed in 2014, but implementation was delayed due to various reasons. The terminal is a key Polish energy project which Poland is planning to significantly reduce dependence on gas imports from Russia.

Foreign Policy: Europe Doubles Down on Russian Gas

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/will-nord-stream-2-cement-russian-hold-on-europe-25407

"After years of talking the talk of reducing reliance on Russian energy, why is Europe now seemingly poised to cement its dependence with a huge new pipeline across the Baltic? Russia’s multibillion-dollar plans to expand the capacity of the existing Nord Stream pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany, announced earlier this year, are taking shape faster than most observers expected — and stand in stark contrast to the bevy of other stillborn energy projects Russia keeps announcing."

Gas Business as Usual? The New Agreements Between Gazprom and EU Energy Companies

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/new-agreements-between-gazprom-and-eu-energy-companies-25403

"On 4 September 2015 at the Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Gazprom signed two agreements with Western companies: an agreement to extend the Nord Stream pipeline, and an agreement on exchanging assets with corporations from Germany (resuming the implementation of previously concluded agreements) and Austria (an initial agreement)..."

Cheap Oil Prices Render US Shale Drilling Unprofitable

http://sputniknews.com/analysis/20150916/1027058389.html

"...The drop in oil prices over the past year has put pressure on US shale producers, many of which loaded up on debt to drill wells and expand production before the price collapse. Some companies were able to hedge against the loss with futures contracts, but the sustained oil bear market is beginning to take its toll on the sector. Market oversupply has led to global oil prices losing nearly two-thirds of their value since mid-2014, with Brent crude averaging $48.72 per barrel and WTI $44.59 per barrel as of mid-Monday..."

Fracking Firms That Drove Oil Boom Struggle to Survive

"The market has gone from cutthroat to nearly nonexistent in some oil-and-gas fields. So far this year, the amount of fracking work has fallen about 40% from a year earlier, and the price of a frack job has fallen 35%, according to Spears & Associates, a consulting firm for oil-service companies.."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fracking-firms-that-drove-oil-boom-struggle-to-survive-1443053791

Are US Players Losing Interest in LNG Export Plans?

"In Europe, LNG net imports grew by 16.8% year-on-year in Q2 2015, following a 35.9% year-on-year growth in Q1. In Q2 2015, Europe imported 8.71 million tons of LNG against 7.46 million tons in Q2 2014. To a lower extent than in the first quarter of the year, Northwest European markets continued to absorb flexible LNG diverted from Asia’ reads a note released by Cedigaz on Wednesday. Spain, the largest importer in Europe, was the protagonist of this rebound."

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-players-are-losing-interest-in-lng-export-plans-25525

Besides by the construction of LNG - terminals, dependency on Russia's natural gas may be decreased by shale gas extraction. The USA and some EU countries forge ahead with developing this currently controversial energy source. The USA shale gas production may seriously restructure supply and demand in the global hydrocarbons market.

Świnoujście Gas Terminal Officially Opened

“Today we can say that as much as 90 percent of our gas can be imported from other sources than the East, and next year, when we are in full swing, we will stand at 100 percent,” Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz said on Monday during the opening ceremony of the terminal. The LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) terminal in Świnoujście has been in the works for several years, and the opening has been postponed a number of times. It is meant to reduce Poland’s dependency on gas supplies from Russia, which delivers the lion’s share of gas consumed by Central and Eastern Europen countriues.

https://www.oilandgaseurasia.com/en/news/%C5%9Bwinouj%C5%9Bcie-gas-terminal-officially-opened

Poland's LNG Terminal Like a “Shotgun on the Wall”

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/polands-lng-terminal-like-a-shotgun-on-the-wall-25732

"Poland's Świnoujście LNG terminal, to be completed in May 2016, bears numerous drivers like diversification, security, having options, or business interests.But in a session entitled "The Role of Gas in the Future Energy Mix" at the 25th Economic Forum in Krynica, Poland, Mr. Jakub Jaworowski, Secretary of State, Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Poland, likened his country's new LNG facility to a “shotgun on the wall.Calling it a game changer, both for Poland and the region, that shotgun is there on the wall “just in case.” He explained, “So it greatly enhances our negotiating power with our suppliers, because we can always say 'well, maybe we can buy some gas from other destinations.'”

Polish-Lithuanian gas pipe to end Baltic energy isolation

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/polish-lithuanian-gas-pipe-end-baltic-energy-isolation-318552

"... The leaders of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland signed the agreement at an official ceremony today, in presence of the Commission President. Juncker said the move would increase the EU’s energy security and strengthen its resilience to potential gas supply interruptions.

“Today we have done much more than bringing the energy isolation of the Baltic States to an end. We have brought the region further together. Today we have agreed on European infrastructure that will unite us, instead of dividing us," Juncker said.

The three Baltic countries - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - which were Soviet republics until the early 1990s, are still highly dependent on Russian gas supplies. The EU sees the pipeline as a key element of its “energy union”, a plan to create a single market and connect the continent’s fragmented energy networks. This is expected to help prices converge and reduce dependence on imports..."

Lithuanian LNG: Impact and Opportunity

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lithuanian-lng-impact-and-opportunity-25936

"In a session entitled “LNG: New Market Opportunities in the Region” at the 25th Economic Forum in Krynica, Poland, Mr. Dominykas Tuckus, General Manager, LITGAS, explained how Lithuania's LNG terminal at Klaipeda is impacting the Lithuanian market and offering new opportunities.In the last 5 years, he recalled, he said the idea of constructing an LNG terminal in Klaipeda had been conceived, and successfully implemented in 2014. “Prior to this, Litgas had negotiated a contract with Statoil that provides baseload supplies for the terminal to be functional.”

The Great LNG Race: Who will be the winner?

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/the-great-lng-race-who-will-be-the-winner-25976

"... Today, in North America- US and Canada- there is plenty of natural gas available at an affordable price (less than 3$/MMbtu) and they use it as a domestic fuel – Which is the natural and traditional way of using natural gas, by the way! In Europe, we have been using natural gas for years from the North Sea, Russia and North Africa. Recently, after the decline in UK production, the UK and Western Europe started to build quite a few LNG import terminals: France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, UK, Belgium and The Netherlands, Greece and Turkey, every country wanted to have the access to LNG. So now Europe is able to import LNG to balance out the decline of domestic production on the one hand, and compete with imported pipe gas from the traditional sources on the other hand.The newcomers – India and China – have an appetite for this type of fuel, because they want to replace coal by something which is cleaner in terms of air quality. So they've started to build receiving terminals and sign long-term contracts for LNG with several suppliers from Australia and Middle-East mainly..."

Maximum Production from Shah Deniz Expected between 2022 and 2028

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/shah-deniz-maximum-production-expected-26227

Maximum gas extraction of 25 bcm/y from the Shah Deniz field is expected to be between 2022 and 2028, said SOCAR Senior Vice President for Geology, Geophysics and Field Development Khoshbakht Yusifzada.“The peak volume of gas extraction of 16 bcm/y from the Shah Deniz Phase 2 will be achieved in 2022 and maximum volume of gas extraction from Phase 1 and Phase 2 is expected between 2022 and 2028,” added Yusifzada.He said at the initially Azerbaijan plans to export 10 bcm/y of gas to Europe, but the figure will reach up to 20 bmc/y in second stage.

Belgium May Establish FLNG Facilities in Iran’s Kharg Island

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/belgium-flng-facilities-iran-kharg-island-26260

"Belgium is in technical and economic talks with Iran to establish floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facilities in Iran’s southern Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf, an Iranian government official has said.“If technical and economic talks between Iran and Belgium are fruitful, Belgium’s FLNG facilities will be brought to Kharg, so that Iran will produce LNG using these facilities for the first time,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh told Shana news agency on November 9."

Natural gas is justifiably considered as energy source of the future in the world. However, observing the gas through a global perspective, it becomes even stronger political factor in the hands of „gas superpowers“ and a source of insecurity and „gloomy“ perspective of a larger part of the world dependent on this energy source. Due to this the issue of safe and secure gas supply is becoming an increasing geopolitical challenge of the 21st century. One of the attempts to solve this situation is turning to other gas supply sources, that is, providing the supply of LNG - liquefied natural gas. This is why LNG terminals in Europe should be primarily seen as geostrategic projects, whose construction is decided not only exclusively on the basis of commercial (economic) criteria but also for geopolitical reasons regarding the increase of security of supply with the aim to provide alternative supply routes.

There is no doubt that in the near future the dominance over energy sources, particularly gas (conventional fuel with the lowest CO2 emissions), will determine the holders of the global political power of the modern globalized economy.

Subhash C. Kundu

The standard Washington response is that the United States and Europe share a mutual energy challenge. As NATO allies, energy security affects collective security; and a Europe that is not energy secure will be a weaker U.S. partner in addressing global challenges.

http://www.gmfus.org/blog/2015/07/21/european-energy-security-should-remain-us-priority

Darko, I agree with your point of view, taht in the near future the dominance over energy sources, particularly gas, will determine the holders of the global political power of the modern globalized economy.

Is US liquefied gas capable of ousting Russian gas from European market?

"... Liquefied natural gas from the United States will hardly succeed in ousting Russian fuel from the European market to any significant extent, but Gazprom will have to conduct a very flexible price policy anyway, experts believe. Their opinions of how real the related risks are vary a great deal.The supplies of US liquefied natural gas to Lithuania are scheduled to begin in February 2016, and to the whole of Europe, by 2019. The overall amount is likely to exceed 60 million tonnes (84 billion cubic meters of gas), Reuters said. In the meantime, Russia’s share of the European market is as large as 30%..."

http://tass.ru/en/opinions/837885

Klaipeda LNG: Great But No “Silver Bullet”

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/klaipeda-lng-spruogis-terminal-interconnecting-europe-26451

"While there are steps that need to be taken to export LNG in the Baltic states, Lithuania's Vice-Minister of Energy Aleksandras Spruogis contends that since the dawn of the LNG terminal at Klaipeda the security of his country's gas supply has changed dramatically. While it can cover the gas needs of 80% of consumers in the Baltic states, he said it's no “silver bullet.” He commented, “Without other infrastructure, it cannot change the game in the region.”An entire package of connected infrastructure projects is needed, he said, looking from north to south, including Balticonnector with Estonia's underground storage, Gas Interconnector Poland-Lithuania (GIPL), the Polish LNG terminal Świnoujście, and Klaipeda.Mr. Spruogis made his remarks at an event organized by Natural Gas Europe and Geopolitika on November 11 in the European Parliament in Brussels, part of the Interconnecting Europe series.He admitted that LNG in Europe is underused, something which could be alleviated by removing regional barriers, evaluating demand, removing bottlenecks and developing small-scale LNG..."

Important Projects of Common Interest in the Balkans

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/projects-of-common-interest-balkans-26592

"The Projects of Common Interest (PCI) as envisaged by the European Commission in Brussels, clearly aim to interconnect the Balkans and the surrounding regions to facilitate the emergence of hubs and new transit routes. Whether that strategy could be practical in the long-run remains to be seen: There are multiple variables that have to be taken into account.One of the approved PCIs is the Tesla route, a pipeline that aims to connect Greece with Austria, traversing the ex-Yugoslav states and Hungary. The project is actually a spur of the Turkish Stream one that is planned to cross the Black Sea towards the European part of Turkey and then reach up to Northern Greece.Despite that, the Turkish Stream pipeline project has not been included as a PCI, a fact that may sound contradictory to some. The reason for Tesla's inclusion--and not Turkish Stream's--could be because the Tesla pipeline would be an autonomous project that will aim to source different (not Russian) sources of gas. The sources of the Tesla pipe's gas is an issue that has yet to be fully analysed or decided..."

An argument could also be made that Tesla has been included because it could serve as a possible link to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), rather than the Turkish Stream pipeline, in future. If that happens, TAP's business plan will have to change dramatically, since it has been designed for smaller quantities of gas than those that would be needed if Tesla becomes an integral part of it. Furthermore TAP is supposed to have its own spur, the Ionian-Adriatic Pipeline (IAP). Instead of being routed through the Central Balkans, IAP is planned to follow an Albania-Bosnia-Croatia route with a smaller by-route to Kosovo. The routing and gas quantity issues would have to be dealt with before Tesla could be considered as complimentary route with the TAP one.

EU leaders to clash over Nord Stream 2 at summit

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/eu-leaders-clash-over-nord-stream-2-summit-320114

“Different EU countries, different EU institutions and different experts have different views," a Commission official who asked not to be named told EurActiv. As he described it, the issue appears to be a particularly difficult one, with contradictory precedents and case-laws being cited, often with very valid arguments in both directions.The Commission is also reportedly discussing the issue with the Bundesnetzagentur, the German federal network agency for electricity and gas..."

LNG: An “Insurance Policy” for Europe

"...In his remarks in a roundtable discussion on US gas in the European market in the European Parliament, Mr. John Roberts, Director of Strategy, Natural Gas Europe, pointed out that gas must be delivered on an uninterruptible basis to run power stations or household appliances, a fact which made for contracts that are uninterruptible, or that offer flexible delivery, but which mandate backup storage. Natural gas must be produced, distributed and must have back up storage, he added.“Insurance policies play a major role,” he quipped, offering that LNG is becoming an insurance policy for Europe. “Part of that policy is managing to create the infrastructure that can ensure diversification...”

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lng-an-insurance-policy-for-europe-26906

LITHUANIAN ENERGY MINISTER REFLECTS ON THE YEAR IN LITHUANIAN LNG

HTTP://WWW.NATURALGASEUROPE.COM/LITHUANIAN-ENERGY-MINISTER-KLAIPEDA-LNG-TERMINAL-BALTIC-GAS-FACILITY-26897

"Lithuania’s LNG terminal in the seaport of Klaipeda has faced a lot of criticism since its inception. Critics say it is just too large for a country size of Lithuania and that the maintenance costs are too high, especially after the recent LNG law amendments that spread the cost among all the country's gas consumers.

However, Rokas Masiulis, the Baltic country’s Energy minister, praises the facility as the guarantor of Lithuania’s energy security and says the ministry does whatever it can to expand the use of the terminal capacities..."

Energy security and natural gas markets in Europe: Lessons from the EU and the U.S

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/planetpolicy/posts/2015/10/13-energy-security-natural-gas-markets-europe-boersma.

" ...Several important lessons can be learned in the midst of the fierce debate among pundits, policymakers, and energy commentators about the European Union’s diversification away from Russian gas supplies. These are outlined below and are derived from extensive fieldwork, a review of the energy security literature, and analysis of decades of market and institutional developments in the European Union..."

How Ukraine Weaned Itself Off Russian Gas

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-12/how-ukraine-weaned-itself-off-russian-gas

Natural gas accounts for around 1/4 of global energy demand, of which 10 % is supplied in the form of LNG. Share of LNG in global gas supply increased by over 10 MTPA in 2014 .

George Friedman: The EU is increasingly unreliable and unpredictable

Friedman spoke to EurActiv’s Senior Editor, Georgi Gotev.

How does Europe look from across the Atlantic?

"Firstly, the US looks at Europe in the much broader context of Eurasia. So now we have a crisis that stretches from the Pacific to the Atlantic. The Chinese are in crisis, Russia is in crisis, the Middle East is in terrific crisis, and now Europe is in crisis as well. So we are looking at a situation where an area with a population of 5 billion is transforming in ways we cannot anticipate.An American looks at this not just as Europe, but as a range of problems in general. There are many American views of Europe, but my view is that the EU has failed, but there is no clear alternative. And we see the failure in the immigration issue, which we do not regard as a major issue because it is less than 0.5% of population shift, but Europe cannot make a decision on how to handle it.This is not an unmanageable problem. You can decide not to let anyone in, and then you take measures to prevent that, or you decide to integrate them and you do certain things to make that happen. It is Europe’s inability to make a decision that is, from the American point of view, the most problematic..."

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/global-europe/george-friedman-eu-increasingly-unreliable-and-unpredictable-320982

EU to Invest €217 Mn in Key European Energy Infrastructure Projects

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/eu-european-union-energy-infrastructure-projects-funding

"The European Commission has announced that it will invest €217mn in 15 key trans-European energy infrastructure projects, mainly in central and southeastern Europe... In relation to gas, the funding will be allocated for the study of modernising the Bulgarian gas transmission network; the Midcat project; and to connect Algerian and Spanish LNG terminals to the rest of Europe. Additionally, funding will be given to an interconnector that will link gas networks in Romania, Bulgaria, Austria, and Hungary. The statement from the EC highlighted the interconnector project as an "important development" for the EU gas market as it will facilitate the transport of gas from the Caspian region and other potential sources, including LNG, to reach central Europe..."

US LNG will 'Shake up the Market'

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-lng-will-shake-up-the-market-27696

"Cheniere Energy's vice-president for strategy Andrew Walker told the European Gas Conference in Vienna January 19 that LNG from the US would change the global industry dynamic in many ways in the next five years.Deliveries are due to start up in February or March from Sabine Pass, Cheniere Energy’s LNG export terminal in Louisiana. Overall US capacity is set to reach 60mn metric tons/yr from 14 plants, which compares with global trade today of 240mn mt/yr.That means abundant, cost-competitive supply coming onstream during the next five years, which will stimulate new demand and new markets, he said.The US, Qatar and Australia will be, he said, the “Big Three” global LNG suppliers – previously only Qatar, on 70mn mt/yr had deserved the epithet “big”. Between them, US, Qatar and Australia will represent just under 50% of total supply at that time.Beyond that increase in capacity, Walker reported that consultants Wood Mackenzie expect global demand for LNG to continue to grow. “And you will see a need for new supply post-2020...”

Expediting US LNG Export Applications: LNG Allies Puts the Case For

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/expediting-us-lng-export-applications-27968

US LNG Exports: A longer term perspective

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-lng-exports-a-longer-term-perspective-28087

While he concedes the LNG market grew progressively worse during the drafting of the paper, he says his main objective was to give a long-term perspective.“Investing in LNG facilities is a long-term venture. It's going to go through several cycles, and right now the cycle is a very low one,” he says.

More Than Half of U.S. LNG Is Destined for Europe, WoodMac Says

Europe is set to be the key destination for liquefied natural gas supplies from the U.S. after prices fell in Asia, the world’s biggest consumer of the fuel, according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd.The U.S. is forecast to ship about 55 percent of its total LNG production, or 32 million metric tons a year, to Europe by 2020, according to Alex Munton, the Houston-based principal analyst for Americas LNG at Wood Mackenzie. That’s because Europe is so close, has ample import capacity and liquid markets, and now has prices nearer to those in Asia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-15/more-than-half-of-u-s-lng-is-destined-for-europe-woodmac-says

EC to Adopt Security of Supply Package

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/security-of-supply-package-on-deck-28166

"The European Commission will adopt its “Security of Supply” package February 16, according to the EC's head of Energy Union, Maros Sefcovic.

Speaking at an event at the International Energy Agency February 15, he said it would have four pillars: a revision of the security of gas supply directive; an LNG strategy; a heating and cooling strategy; and more transparency to intergovernmental agreements that could be in contravention of European law.

Despite a sharp fall in the premium paid for gas imports by countries in central and eastern Europe last year, he said markets were still not liquid enough..."

“We discovered when preparing this strategy that because of a lack of infrastructure and [because of] the dominant position of a supplier on the market, countries of central and eastern Europe were paying 23% more in 2014 for gas than their western partners; and the same persisted for last year, but the difference in price was 16%. Therefore, I think this is clear that we need more liquid markets, need them better interconnected; we need to diversify our supplies to make sure that competition can really play a role and can benefit from an open, well-working market.”