Dear @Alireza, I think this is good start for analysis of consequences.

What are the ramifications?

"First, there are obvious potential consequences for relations between Russia and Turkey, which share close economic ties, particularly since European sanctions on Russia came into effect. Turkey is a popular tourism destination for Russians.

But more significantly, there's a broader concern about the impact this could have geopolitically, in terms of the Syrian conflict and the war on ISIS.

 A Russian airman descends from the downed jet via parachute.

There's always been a divide between Russia and the West over what to do in Syria. And Moscow and Ankara are essentially on opposite sides in the conflict, with Russia standing behind Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkey backing rebel forces fighting to topple him...

It's in no one's interest for Russia to respond to this militarily. But, as Putin's strong words indicate, we can expect to see diplomatic fireworks."

Yesterday, Putin accused Turkey for long term islamization! Let us follow the situation.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/24/middleeast/russia-turkey-jet-downed-syria/

This is a difficult and very complex question. After the recent terrorists attack in France I thought a more unification against such group. But the Turkey's reaction made me thinking that they may be backing the terrorists in Syria and Iraq (and France too). 

Merkel (German Chancellor) said on Wednesday the downing of a Russian warplane "has further aggravated the situation in Syria."

Iran's President Rouhani said "provocative actions and their many legal consequences are the responsibility of the initiator."

To summarize, all we can see in the Syria is this "there are different actors with different interests conducting different operations with different aims" Tusk said (EC President).

http://www.walb.com/story/30601778/the-latest-russian-pilot-says-no-warnings-from-turkey

There are many consequences that affect directly the relations in all fields between Russia and Turkey.

I am not an expert in the Inter National Relation or World Affairs, but as a layman I feel Turkey should not shot down Russian fighter plane as it was coming after attacking in Syria. As expressed by Mahmoud above, it seems Turkey is backing Syria/ Iraq.

Turkey will always be a crucially important transit country for both Iranian and Russian exports, so any kind of squeeze on exports to Turkey would hit both countries, especially perhaps Iran as its starts to recover after the lifting of US sanctions. Nonetheless it looks as if for Russia at least, its foreign policy and strategic interests are currently at odds with its energy policy – and that President Putin will put strategic interests first. Turkey faces the further problem that its first nuclear energy plant is being built by the Russians and will be partly Russian-managed for decades after that.

http://atimes.com/2015/11/turkish-russian-relations-reel-from-jet-shoot-down-pilots-shot-by-turkmen-rebels/

Thanks for providing your valid opinions and analysis.

I personally believe that it’s not very likely that Russia and Turkey engage in a direct war.

Since Ukrainian crisis that led to more conflicts between Russia and the West, this incident has truly escalated the existing dispute.

However since both Putin and Erdogan tend to show their authoritarianism won’t leave any action or reaction unanswered.

Generally speaking, 13 November Paris attacks which left 130 people dead, have received more global sympathy in compare with Russian plane crash in Sinai which killed 224 people while ISIS has taken responsibility for both. Hence, even if Russia tends to shoot down a Turkish jet over Syrian border, it wouldn’t wish to be the aggressor, and as long as Turkey counts on NATO’s support cannot be recognized as the aggressor either.

Given these points, Russia may increase its support to Syrian Kurdish groups and PKK, and perhaps there is a new chapter of neo-Cold War and more proxy wars in the region.

Putin said recently the following phrase: "Before the start of our active operations in Syria, our General Staff is very well modeled all the possible consequences". In general, history shows that all "sharp movement" against Russia turn for the benefit of Russia. I think that there will be the same. There is a saying: either Russia will be great either Russia will disappear from the political map of the world. In my opinion, if Russia becomes a powerful country then it will benefit the whole world in terms of security.

Thanks for the valuable points raised by all.

Turkey has been taking illegitimate economical advantages out of all of the past and present crisis in the region. To name some, one may refer to Iraq-Iran war era and the period of  imposed international sanctions on Saddam regime, at which Turkey was helping Saddam to smuggle oil via Turkey. Also, from the beginning of the recent unrest in Iraq and Syria, Turkey has been helping the ISIS smuggling crude oil out of the occupied regions of these two countries.

In my view the downing of the Russian fighter jet returns back to the Turkish government's concerns on losing this illegitimate economical advantages. However, after the recent Isis terrorist operations in France and the following international awareness about the ISIS, Turkey is going to have a very hard time justifying its backing of terrorist groups in Syria, particularly the downing of Russian fighter jet. In my view one of the consequences of Turkish-Russian dispute over the downed jet  will be losing a lot more than what Turkey has gained over the past several years. This is due to the fact that forTurkey-Russia trade and tourism relations it is Russia which has an upper hand.

Every country has hidden agenda. They are interested only for betterment of own country. Ultimately middle east will be ruined except one country

Strategic thinking is by definition not an entirely transparent domain. Many strategic plans and actions are not immediately apparent and evident, and only in long-run they become rational, or not.

We all are currently being driven by a huge flow of information whose dynamics are changeable and aperiodic. Now, the key aspect consists in data mining, f.i., and hence in the processing of all data and information. Many enters around the world are currently working on this.

Turkey's attack was a mistake. The question is, though: was that a deliberate or an accidental mistake? The consequences will come form many sides, not just one.

Dear Barbara Sawicka,

I don't agree with your phrase "This fact has exacerbated the already unfavorable relations between Russia and the countries of Asia".

At the moment, I saw the hot news "Protests against the aggression of Ankara and actions of solidarity with Russia took place in Bulgaria and Greece" ( http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/297061 ) and "In Turkey, a scandal erupted over the publication of materials to help ISIS intelligence agencies fighters" ( http://www.1tv.ru/news/world/297062 ). But now I would like to ask you to comment a phrase "Erdogan called aggression possible use C-400 against Turkey" on the link http://www.forbes.ru/news/306879-erdogan-nazval-agressiei-vozmozhnoe-primenenie-s-400-protiv-turtsii .  Here is a brief translation:

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the aggression finds a situation in which a Turkish military plane that violated the airspace of Syria, is shot down by a Russian anti-aircraft complex S-400. He said this in an interview with broadcaster CNN.  Erdogan said that this is possible, and it will force Turkey to take further action, which will not be discussed. He noted that it would be aggression against the Turkish law on the sovereignty of the state and of course to defend that right.

Earlier, Erdogan said that Turkey does not plan to apologize for the downed Turkish fighter F16 Russian Su-24 bomber. He pointed out that in this case the need to apologize those who violated the airspace. Erdogan also stressed that the destruction of the Su-24 was "automatic reaction" to the Turkish Air Force aircraft violating the country's borders, the Turkish edition of Today's Zaman. In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his regret that the Russian side hears "vague explanations, expressions that do not even apologize for that."

I fully agree that every involved country has hidden agenda. Why the attack on Syria is so important for Russia? Unlike other regimes in the region, this is a very reliable ally of Russia. Also, not only the interests of Russia are at risk here, but also Iran's too which is also the Russian partner. Russia would lose the only reliable ally in the region. After Syria, extremists are likely to be used to destabilize Iran.

It seems like an escalation of a problem. Visas for Turkey's citizens, sort of sanctions toward Turkey, tanks close to Syria... It is not naive at all. Especially if you look through prism of religion!

Putin Is Now Sending In Tanks And Russian Soldiers Into Syria To Protect His Christian Brethren From Muslims Who Want To Slaughter Christians!

It is very complex problem! The consequences can not be foreseen and there are no signs of a solution to this difficult geopolitical situation with possible  big implications.

http://shoebat.com/2015/09/14/putin-is-now-sending-in-tanks-and-russian-soldiers-into-syria-to-protect-his-christian-brethren-from-muslims-who-want-to-slaughter-christians/

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-sends-tanks-syria-vladimir-6441678

The demolition of the Russian Sukhoi-24 by F-16 Turkish port on the Syrian border the ongoing conflict on the dangerous edge of a war between states. At the time Syria is undergoing a civil conflict that sees Moscow and Ankara sided with determination on opposing sides: the first supports the regime of Bashar Assad, the second Muslim rebels who want to overthrow it. Both nations are militarily in Syria: the Kremlin has a contingent of two thousand men and more than one hundred jet bases of Latakia where conducts raids against rebels, Ankara has deployed more than 10,000 soldiers to the border and its jets perform raid on Syrian Kurdish bases.

The divergence of approach to the war in Syria has become evident at the recent G20 when Vladimir Putin, Russian president, has accused individuals from 40 countries - including Turkey - to finance the Islamic State (Isis) Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and the answer came by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accusing Assad of just buying crude from Isis to finance an enemy that entitles him as a national leader. These and many contrasts in the last month had also led to friction with military jets Turks "enlightened" by Russian radars along the border now is this front that gets hot.

Downing of a jet for this reason is the most stupid idea at this critical time. Turkey exports to russia gone. 20B pipeline project gone, Most happy people are ISIS on this downing of jet. Several daily charter flights closed- So lot of economical disadvantage to Turkey. 

Turkey does not want Assad should remain. Russia wants smooth exit of Assad and replaced by Assad people- Russia-oriented not Turkey or USA oriented.

Same stories were in Afganistaan for USA and Russia when Laden was CIA agent. Both left Afganistaan.

Same story is when Indian prime minister talk to Putin for Business, Kerry released 1.5 billion dollar aid to Pakistan

This bully of USA will never end

Same way USA plays with every country. Historically republicans were of this nature but not democrats. Now same story with democrats. For example, our new prime minister (Canadian) has declared that he will pull out his fighter jets from Syria rather he will help in training ground forces. He has accepted 25000 refugees, anyway. In retaliation to to stopping fighter jets, to give a lesson to Canada, not only Obama cancelled keystone pipeline project (that is ok) but used the term "dirty" oilsands from Canada. This is the strategy of USA not even sparing his close neighbour. He could have said this term in person to our prime minister. He wanted to show USA muscles on TV. That definitely affect the economy of Canada indirectly.

Turkey was respected very peaceful country. Now that strategy will change. Obama never criticized Turkey on this downing. Even they killed one pilot on the ground that is horrible. 

Dear all,

if you are interested to hear independent deep analytical analysis please have a look at the following links:

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35IE8u7Spd0   Y. Kedmi: Attack on Russian plane - thought-out provocation

The defeat of the Russian bomber Turkish military - a thought-out provocation that is being done without the permission of senior management of the country - says the former head of the Israeli intelligence services, "Nativ" Yakov Kedmi

2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRg78zgxK48   Y. Kedmi: Why Erdogan shot down a Russian Su-24

You can see the subtitles in any language by pressing the buttons "Subtitles" and "Options".

3. http://matveychev-oleg.livejournal.com/2836016.html   Y. Kedmi: Actually against terror no one thought to fight

Translated by using Google Translate from Russian:

Instead epigraph: "Rather than to destroy the terror, the whole world to solve other problems - how to live with it. Do you want to live with terror? Here and live - from Paris and the Vatican to London

"If the French were French - as they want to be, or as they were this morning the Foreign Legion would be in the Syrian city of Cancer. And in Mosul, Iraq - French paratroopers. But no one was there. Because they think only about how to reduce the political damage. And to make their statements a new political credit from the deceived population. (Speech by the former head of the Israeli intelligence services, "Nativ" Jacob Kedmi channel Eaton-TV. Published in reducing) 203307_600 (600x337, 41Kb) The French are better than other people?

After the terrorist attacks in Paris have all come into a state of hysteria. As if the French blood redder, or more valuable than that of other nations. Why no tantrums were not, when using the same French in Syria, killing three hundred thousand people? Why was not it, when Belgrade was bombed? When the Croats slaughtered Serbs, Bosnians Serbs, Bosnians and those and others, and Albanians over all this dance?

And why it was not such a tantrum when recently, Russia, the plane fell there because women and children were killed than in Paris?

There are many questions. For example, here are these same professional mourners treated terror here in Israel? Or that they were talking about Beslan and Nord-Ost. Why is no one of them is not accusing the French president is accused Putin?

Terror can not be divided into "useful" and "harmful"

The real problem lies in the fact that the French government, along with other EU countries and the US have long been flirting with terror. They did divided into helpful, harmful or tolerable. It is understood that the "harmful" - this is when it beat itself.

For example, during the Afghan war in the Balkan and the Chechen events, Al-Qaeda is perceived in the range favorite to bearable. When Bin Laden kept terrorist training camps for the war in Chechnya, it was also tolerated. When al-Qaeda fighters fought on the side of the Bosnians, the Serbs were killed and burned the church, it was also tolerated.

Instead of the destruction of terror, the world decides - how to live with terror

Today the terror engendered by all those who gave the terrorist organizations to exist and develop. When Saudi Arabia and Qatar have created LIH and Dzhabbat An-Nusra and gave them money. When the Americans and Europeans supported them when Turkey gave them territory for transit and money by buying their oil. When Turkey missed weapons from Libya, which fell into the hands of terrorists, for dementia Americans, Italians and French the same. They proceed from the fact that terrorists may be good or bad. I still do not understand that in fact, a moderate and a good terrorist can be in only one case - when he's dead.

While all terrorist activity in the world would be outside the law, until all the bases are destroyed by terrorists and the terrorists, whoever they were, all the rest is child's play.

And now, instead of having to destroy the terror, the whole world to solve other problems - how to live with it. Do you want to live with terror? Here and live - from Paris and the Vatican to London."

Text of speech given by appointment Jacob Kedmi channel Iton-TV.

i would expect limited tensions to surface. though relations may deteriorate in the upcoming months (through russian sanctions), the level of energy and economic interdependence among the two will still prevail

How about this possibility of closing border between Turkey and Syria?

War with Isis: President Obama demands that Turkey close stretch of border with Syria

Ankara is accused of tolerance of – if not complicity with – the terrorists, who use border as a crossing point for Isis recruits and oil sales...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/war-with-isis-president-obama-demands-that-turkey-close-stretch-of-frontier-with-syria-a6753836.html

Turkey helps ISIS(this is a fact)

The turks are not alone. Behind them they have the U.S., and the NATO. Russia is not alone, either. In he backstage we have to take China into consideration. - The entire dispute is about what in classical terms we can call "the new international order" (sic).

ISIS is just a pawn, as we all know, made up by both Europe and the U.S. Things are a bit more complicated than they appear - without despair, though.

The incident has also some lessons in the narrower military sense. First, like with the Jordanian F-16 last year, the search and rescue TTPs were not effective. This may suggest that the air forces involved in the fight against IS still do not perceive it as a war. This should change now and fast. Second, the entrance to the theater of operations of the S400 will facilitate the R&D efforts of  electronic warfare by Israel and the US. Third, the Israeli Air Force would probably increase its readiness for a case that Russia test the Israeli patience like it did with Turkey. Usually a set of cases and responses are prepared and being rehearsed up to the level of prime minister (include).

Yes, the question is very important. Unfortunately, without the full information everyone can turn into those "calculating Belgian physicists" with their more than strange results. Please, look at the comments after the article http://www.iflscience.com/physics/physicists-show-both-russia-and-turkey-were-lying-about-downed-jet  (Do those physists really exist? I didn't find their names...)

Turkey,  on the basis of available evidence was clearly justified but the  consequence appears to be an almost total rupture of its political, econoimc,  and military friendship with Russia and  increased geopolitical rivalry with Russia in the Middle East and probably soon in the Caucasus.

You can look at a historical reference which is Chechen-Russian War and the position of Turkey. Turkey suppoted Chechens and immediately Russian-PKK relationships increases. This can be the invisible part of todays conflict too. (Also you can consider that the region is on fire in terms of 3 big problems that are ISIS, PKK, and Syria. I don't believe that economic consequences will be too harmful for both of the countries because in broadest perspective, we are living in a global world. So, any economic change does not only effect the countries, but whole region and Europe too.

http://www.inss.org.il/uploadImages/systemFiles/No.%20777%20-%20Zvi,%20Gallia,%20and%20Sarah%20for%20web.pdf

Dear Stephen, Nilufer and Kobi,

thank you for sharing the comments of the professionals. I'm not a professional macro-economist, so my opinion is personal and formed by reading Xinhuanet.com. I agree, the economic consequences will not be too harmful for Russia or Turkey: the Russian imported agricultural and building construction sectors will be developed by the Chinese companies, and millions of Chinese tourists instead of Russian 3 millions per year will spend their vacations in Turkish resorts (so the problem of the Turkish support of Xinjiang will be solved in the natural economic way). The exclusion of Russia from economic relations with Turkey, EU and USA is the best gift for the Chinese economy in all spheres. Am I wrong? Watching TV I think sometimes that many of European and American politicians are working only for economic progress of China (maybe, they have enterprises there?).  

Another indirect result may be a more academic in nature: a renewed interest in Russian military history and theory. At the late Cold War, Western militaries and some universities had good understanding and knowledge on these topics. However over the years hardly anyone in either intelligence/military establishments and/or universities continued to seriously follow developments on these topics (the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom even dismantled an excellent research group on Russian affairs). Now that the Russian intervention, which has interesting similarities to Soviet doctrine from the 1970s, could be considered an intelligence surprise/failure, we may see the begining of investment in training a new generation of analysts/PhDs on Russian military history and theory.

Dear Olga

I totally agree to you about China factor. China is an important player not only in this issue but also in a big game. EU and USA are always trying to make balance for their own profit if China is in the game. (As I wrote before, global economic balance in the most important think and China is one of the strongest player in global area) And also, it is obvious that China, Russia and Iran should be considered before taking any action,

Just for the sake of truth! 

An analysis of the box's contents by Russian and foreign experts is due to be released on December 21. Russian officials expect the recorder's data to definitively prove that the plane didn't violate Turkey's airspace.

Will this black box prove Russian fighter jet did NOT enter Turkish air space before it was shot down? British and Chinese experts observe unveiling of flight data

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3365955/Will-black-box-prove-Russian-fighter-jet-did-NOT-enter-Turkish-air-space-shot-British-Chinese-experts-observe-unveiling-flight-data.html

http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-experts-open-downed-warplanes-black-box-on-national-television-/27436802.html

I believe that ultimately Russia will lose more for it has no option other than Turkey while Turkey has many other options although it will take a hit

I hope for a peaceful solution of all these conflicts. Taxpayers shouldn't waste their money for a bad work of officials anywhere.

Turkish-Russian tension spills into South Caucasus!

There are always two sides in conflict. Here is the opinion of one side.

" Fatih Özbay, a Russia expert at İstanbul Technical University, said Russia is sending a signal to Turkey and Azerbaijan through Armenia by arming Yerevan. For him, Russia is evidently pursuing a policy of containment against Turkey in many regions by escalating the geographical scope of the tension. "The Russia-Turkey dispute has already gone beyond the Syrian theater. Turkey now faces a strategy of containment from Crimea to the Caucasus, from Iran to Syria and the east Mediterranean. The jet crisis has only served as a pretext; it accelerated the process," he said...."

http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_turkish-russian-tension-spills-into-south-caucasus_408070.html

Dear all,

I want to say that there is one world and we are all human. Without distinction of religion and language we can grow together. No to war, yes to peace and brotherhood.

Sincerely,

 Dear Dr. Bostancı is absolutely right.  

I agree

I hope that diplomats and other officials will remember that they receive their salaries from the taxpayers (many of whom are against confrontation) and will eliminate the consequences of the conflict, sooner or later. Let's see what will happen next, after this: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36643435 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36643435

"Russia's relations with Turkey have changed, making the Americans nervous," deputy director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies said.

Washington "usually sends Biden to deliver tough demands," he added. "I think that [the White House's] message for Turkey will be the following: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan should not improve relations with Russia and Turkey should not join forces" with Moscow to resolve the Syrian crisis...

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20160824/1044593692/biden-turkey-russia-thaw.html