Dear Ferenc, you ask a good question. Typically scientists are not get used to react quickly on changing reality. A lot depends on funding policy for sciences in EU. If I would sit in Brussel and organize a call, I would include there at least such questions:

1) modelling of future migration flows to EU given different scenarios for giving asylum and different foreign policies towards stabilization in Middle East countries;

2) modelling additional costs for EU budgets till 2050 in the case of BAU (business as usual) scenario taking into account chain effect (migrants will pull their family members); in fact, I have an article about chain migration (with C.Helmenstein, in JEDC, 2000, that you can find on my RG page);

3) modelling future shares of migrants and religious fractions of populations in EU countries  till 2050 under different scenarios regarding migration (BAU, restrictions on number and/or length of asylum document, etc).

Dear Ferenc, you ask a good question. Typically scientists are not get used to react quickly on changing reality. A lot depends on funding policy for sciences in EU. If I would sit in Brussel and organize a call, I would include there at least such questions:

1) modelling of future migration flows to EU given different scenarios for giving asylum and different foreign policies towards stabilization in Middle East countries;

2) modelling additional costs for EU budgets till 2050 in the case of BAU (business as usual) scenario taking into account chain effect (migrants will pull their family members); in fact, I have an article about chain migration (with C.Helmenstein, in JEDC, 2000, that you can find on my RG page);

3) modelling future shares of migrants and religious fractions of populations in EU countries  till 2050 under different scenarios regarding migration (BAU, restrictions on number and/or length of asylum document, etc).

Dear Yui, thanks for your thoughtful comments and the inspiring questions. Indeed the questions of migration flow, additional costs and the impact of them on religious division seem all too relavant. Unfortunately, the unknown factors seem to be so numerous that it seems hard to predict more precisely. What I also find noteworthy is that you differentiate between BAU and political actions of different sorts. WHich shows that you require a multi-disciplinary approach as well, as a public discussion on political actions needed.

In the United States, we have a fast turnaround mechanism in our National Science Foundation so that scientists can respond to unexpected rare events. However, it still takes some time. There can be some gap between the quest for pure knowledge and the desire of policy makers for guidance.

I think social scientists could also provide support in estimating the probability for secondary migration. Border nation-states have expressed concern at the processing costs. What are the realistic opportunities for secondary migration vs. repatriation? What cities are positioned to receive this unprecedented volume of refugees? What services would be needed and what political coalitions would need to be built to make them happen? What are the expected economic benefits net of costs to receiving cities? How will this change the urban spatial structure of receiving cities?

Dear Richard, that is perhaps a sign that your National Science Foundation tries to keep pace with social challenges. As for the gap, it might simply be the one bewteen basic and applied research.

Your list of pragmatic problems seem to come from the angle of political geoegraphy, economics and urban sciences. However, this seems to be a case which might need to tackle more basic (socio-political) problems, including questions of keeping governability, and there is a widespread fear among the populace here of unmanagable changes in political culture and communal identity. The issue in this case is whether we can formulate these fears in the form of research questions or there is no need to do so.

This situation will lead to a huge concentration of academic attention, and research funding, on this single issue, to the detriment of other fields of human mobility within Europe. So while there is understandible empathy with the plight of the refugees among researchers, there is genuine fear that there will be a withdrawal from supporting exploration of important issues such as intra-EU circulation.

Dear David, the point you refer to, i.e. that issues which are discussed in headlines on a daily basis might get a preference over other, not less important issues, is really important. However, it seems to me, this issue might indeedd cause a lot of problem, if not dealt with systematically and science in this respect might want to help.

The migration cum refugee crisis in Europe currently cuts across disciplines: Looking at the root cause is war/conflict and crisis management and the aftermath is both demographic, humanitarian and economic, even bordering on morality and religion as well as food production. Thus, from a disciplinary perspective, both politicians, economists, sociologists, religionists/religion, and anthropologists have roles to play in the resolution. The immediate issue is to address is for European politicians to find a way to settle the refugees and provide some level of comfort for them. However, a lasting solution lies in the resolution of the crisis in the Middle East, hugely created by the West, starting from the intervention in Libya and now in Syria. Promoting rebellion (time was when rebellion was frowned at - though the West would n't tolerate that in their territories even if their leaders are sit-tight) in other countries and arming rebels had led to the emergence and growth of terrorists, impacting the world at large. It's time for the West to rethink its foreign policy strategy and learn to resolve issues through dialogue rather the barrel of the gun because at the end of the day all of us will bear the consequences created by a few "policemen of the world". Time to act is now!

Dear David, I agree with Ferenc that worrying about money for other disciplines taken by this research is a minor issue. Moreover, money may be taken from the fund for refugees because it can help to save money from this fund in future.

Indeed, requested research should be multidisciplinary. However, my mathematical intuition already says that when we are dealing with growing exponents, this will always lead to catastrophic events in future and structural change in the system. Research will just help to quantify them and give politicians a menu of rational choices without any speculations.

What are the growing exponents here? They come from the differences in fertility across different nations in the world. Another reason is difference in pulling mechanisms for chain migration across nations.

Europe indeed had a surplus in welfare for several decades and this allowed for money-rich programs in supporting many in need. But this works only till those many are far below the majority of population. This already works for "normal migration". Extraordinary explosion of refugee flow to EU this year clearly has background in poor management of conflicts in the Middle East (as John says).

Some data about refugee crisis in Europe are already here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_migrant_crisis

European countries and the EU are facing these challenges due to multiple factors.

One factor that can not be ignored is that based on democracy and development. Nobody feels bound to poverty, and worst still to poverty imposed by undemocratic system. 

European countries can think of doing their best to protect their interest. If that does not match the interest of the partnering countries and the global village, it is bound to create the consequence that are being seen. 

Accepting to work with political systems because they favour European interest - even if they could be causing harm to that country in today's global ICT village is bound to produce short-term good results for Europe and EU but long term bad geopolitical consequences for all.

Social science can help in this humanitarian problem through managing perceptions on this refugees that majority of them are Muslim. They should be looked at as Muslim but rather as people that are seeking shelter from the war in their country. Correct information on them need to be disseminated via TV and other channels.

Certainly, the religious connections of the refugees are of primary importance, and it is important to know them. However, to get to conclusions from the data about this question is not so obvious. One should perhaps try to diffentiate between different political cultures among them. It is important, I agree, to see further characteristics of the migrants: age, educational level, family structure, occupational groups, language communities, ratial issues, etc. One eould need very detailed "maps" of these substrata to make reasonable assesments about the actual situation.

Certainly profiling refugees based on all important characteristic and factors are important in order to understand the real situation with the aim (hopefully) to find solutions for the benefits of both refugees, the host countries and mankind. it is indeed very tedious but possible.

You asked  a very challenging question. We should be looking at the role they play in their host countries, the economics of refugees among  others.

It was not me, but the urgency of the present moment and the obvious hesitance of the politcians (togethered with the rather divided European public) that posed the question.,

This is an excellent question and one which will need the combined strategic fields within social science used to address it. Difficulties for this group will be cultural, religious, health, financial and how to ensure their integration within the wider European cultural pool will be difficult but not impossible. A lot will depend upon the governments who are in power within the individual countries and their current policies towards their own citizens and those in their own communities who have many needs. Using Maslow or Aristotle would be our first thought how we might allow these people to flourish and integrate into the communities in which they live. How do we welcome them and assist them to meet the very basic needs of food shelter and safety which are the most important ones for these people. Then its important to have knowledge of the families and extended family measures and an understanding of their view on family and life. Schools and communities will need to be warm and embracing and many countries could look at vacant and empty houses, hotels and other building that might serve as temporary accommodation for these people. The psychological impact of war and the resulting trauma that they have suffered will need to be addressed to avoid long term mental health issues and full medical to ascertain the  medical needs of these individuals would be important. With the biggest need for these people being how they might contribute in a positive way to their new country. Language barriers need to be broken and good listening and communication skills so that not only they as individuals can speak their mind and make their needs known but those with whom they speak will know what action plans to put into place. A Census and registration of all refugees would be important to insure good identification of the new citizens which would enhance the role of social care workers and others in working with this group. yes social science will come strongly into play but it will depend on how each country cares for their own needy citizens if they do the job well then these additional refugees will be well cared for if not then mayhem will ensue and they will be no better of then when they left their own countries.

The refugee problem is a huge human requiring collective and collaborative political, administrative and social decisions. 

The situation may throw up demographic, economic, social and political challenges for the government. The earlier the situation is managed then better it is. Whether we like it or not there are a large number of questions that require answers. The question that need answers can be:

Do we allow them to stay forever? As what refugees or ultimately productive citizens.

Do they go back when the situation is better in their countries back home? Or assimilate in the adopted country. Are they ready to assimilate or is the adopted country and its citizens ready to embrace them in the longer run?

What are the fears of the natives and how to deal with their fears. 

What will happen to the job market, if allowed to take up jobs. The remuneration, the wage policy, the demand and supply situation and so on.

What about the natives and the refugees and their readiness to adopt each others norms and cultural practices. The resulting social conflicts due to varying social norms.  

The situation requires a database of all the refugees to separate illegal entrants and so on.

The governments will have to work with the social scientists for developing policies and programmes for a plethora of issues. 

Short term and long term research conducted by the social scientist may provide answers to the governments and the world community.

This is a good timely question. The social sciences are challenged to explain what is going on in a scientific way because the "sensational" media mixed up fact with fiction & truth with falsehood. I shall give a simple example about confusing the categorization of these coming to Europe: Are they immigrants or refugees?

Immigrants are individuals who leave their country to settle in another (mostly for economic reasons), whereas refugees are persons, who move out or escape from their country due to persecution, or because their homes have been destroyed, or when there is imminent danger to their lives. A person, given the refugee status, could be asked to go home when the cause of flee disappears.

In my humble opinion, the newcomers are largely refugees who seek temporary asylum (or safe haven) until the war ends in their country. To be sure, social scientists ought to go & ask them.

It is relatively easy to see that the description of these poor simple people, as invaders who want to threaten demography or to paint the host country with a specific color, is scientifically invalid.

I think that this is a rich area of research & it is the duty of scientists to clarify the matter to their own people because one cannot count upon the "dishonest" politicians to "talk right".

The challenge for the social sciences will be to come up with a criteria for social equity that is feasible or accepted by all parties. So- called peace is therefore at stake if this social equity is not accepted by all. Intersectionality or intersection theory will feature more and more prominently in the future.

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Hi persons!

Woud like of do a question here about the refugees.

What are the feares of the people's the occident in relation the refugees sirios? I don't' speak only of the countries of Europe, but also of the others countries how Unidos States and Brazil, that dont develop more actions of help, when could do more.

I don't speak of governement, but of iniciatives of more citizies.

Dear Romulo,

thanks for your question and comment.

Certainly you are right, that the recent European refugee crisis should be viewed in the context of global pressures, including those of the Americas.

And I also agree with your point that we should not simply look at government action (or non-action), but also at people's or citizens' iniciatives - or their enmity.

Best,

Ferenc

Dear Ferenc,

I am not a social scientist and I do not know how they could help.  I will just make a few remarks about this situation.  

There has already been many consequences for Europe of this recent massive immigration of refugees. Brexit is one of them.  The freedom of circulation in EU is another one.  The rise of extreme right populist parties is fueled and facilitated by the popular opposition to this massive immigration.  What these parties need now is just a few more cases of terrorist attacks from  these new immigrants and these parties will take over in many countries.  France is about to tip over.  It is in the interest of these parties that such event occur and it is in the interest of the terrorist organisation that an islamophy take over.  Both terrorists and rightist populist parties have the same common interest in opposing each other and they would both benefit from such attack.  The effect of these attacts are cumulative.  The paranoia increases with each of them and at some point the bucket will spill.  Most of these populist parties are against EU and so their rise would bring about an rapid EU desintegration.  

  EU is on the brink , I do not think that social scientists will be fast enough to predict the consequences prior to the events at this point.  What EU and the government of Europe do?  I don't know.

In today's globalized world,any countries are not in isolation of any crisis happened.We are all affected by the refugees crisis.The difference is the scale of the crisis felt.In any crisis there are several factors caused.The main challenge of social science is to provide help for the refugees (as a short term solution)in term of humanitarian aids like providing basic needs and human touch for them,emphaty to their situation and their decision to leave their homes.