Dear Mohammad Royapoor,

The terrain complexity, local roughness, the existence of obstacles and the distance of each turbine from the meteorological towers are among the factors that determine the magnitude of uncertainties. The range of uncertainty can be very wide, but a typical range is 3% - 6%.

For more details and information about this subject, I suggest you to see links and attached files on topic.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/annual-energy-production

https://www.uni-kassel.de/eecs/fileadmin/datas/fb16/remena/theses/batch5/MasterThesis_Abdelbari_Redouane.pdf

https://www.vaisala.com/sites/default/files/documents/Triton-DNV-White-Paper.pdf

Best regards

Dear Mohammad Royapoor ,

he main sources of uncertainties in the wind projects can be divided in two groups: Wind Resource Uncertainty and Energy Production Uncertainty. For detail, i suggest the following.

http://gesel.ie.ufrj.br/app/webroot/files/publications/apresentacao_lira1.pdf

https://www.vaisala.com/sites/default/files/documents/Triton-DNV-White-Paper.pdf

Mohammad Royapoor -

Are you perhaps talking about a regression with one dependent variable, AEP, and one independent variable, mean annual wind speed? That could be a ratio relationship (straight line linear regression with no intercept), or a quadratic linear regression, or nonlinear regression. If you then had 'bands' about that regression line (curved or not), where the bands would be curved and representing the endpoints of prediction intervals on the predicted values, then the predicted y values would be on the x-axis, and the prediction intervals would be vertical, i.e. in the y-direction, with y on the y-axis. Thus the prediction intervals would be "bands" in the y-direction that you want, but the "bands" to which I am referring would be made up of those endpoints forming curves on either side of the regression 'line.'

If all you have is mean annual wind speeds, which isn't much, and you want AEP for each turbine or farm, that sounds like the right format, but someone, perhaps a Government agency or a professional windpower producers' organization, will have to have collected data and done that, and each year to see how it changes. You could say that is what you want, and ask. For example, the US Energy Information Administration has a website, and you could ask them by writing to [email protected]. You could check official and organizational websites for each country, and ask what they have, if you can tell them exactly what you want, as I tried to do above. You will probably find that no one has exactly what you want, but you may find something, perhaps something better.

Asking the official statistics sources might help.

Best wishes - Jim