I agree with your point of view. Speaking of America’s shale gas, in my opinion, the first USA or Canada shale gas exports can reach EU not before two or three years from now.

In the case (this year), Russian Novatek signed contract with CNPC for the annual delivery of gas from Yamal LNG in the next 20 years but,  I don’t think (my opinion) European reduction of dependence on Russian gas will be a reality...

Hi Darko,

As I previously said this is not my field of expertise, but as an economist follow it.

US Shale gas and oil reserves will begin to be operational by the end of this year and available for export next year. I understand that LNG price will decrease and this will favour the EU to cut it dependance on Russian Gas. EU and Russia Bilateral gas dependency became a very complicated issue, I would not recommend. It's for both, not only for the EU.

It's said that shale gas from Argentina will be available in two years. As we have an important energy deficit today, it will not be available to export, but will substract LNG or NG from other exporters, i.e. actually we buy NG from Bolivia and import LNG from Qatar.

In Argentina the NG duct system was adapted almost in no time to take LNG from Middle East, building a decompression station in Bahia Blanca, 1,000 km south of Buenos AIres. I don't know if this same station could compress the NG for export. The natural markets for argentine NG are Chile and Brazil. We have a gas duct connection to Chile and supplied them with gas for many years, but due to the dis incentive of energy production in our country, Chile had to import LNG. I don't know it they will be willing to take the risk of buying Argentine gas again. Brazil has discovered off shore oil fields, but don't know if there are important quantities of gas. The Brazilian NG market is the biggest in South America, and don't know if Argentina would be a reliable supplier. They import NG from Bolivia, at very competitive prices, but I wouldn't rule out eventually the purchase of Argentine NG to avoid a "bilateral dependency" with Bolivia.

If markets work correctly, there would be a decrease in the price of NG and LNG, and there "should be" a tendency for prices in different markets (US, EU and Asia) to get equal. Just a tendency. Regulations, market size, transportation costs have differential impact on prices. What specialist say is that Energy prices will tend to decrease, with the full exploitation of Shale gas and oil fields and with the increase in the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve next year.

I hope this "non specialist" information is useful to you.

Rgds.,

Dear colleagues,

In my opinion, future developments with regard to gas reserves in the East Mediterranean remain to be seen. Regional instability will determine the future prospects of Cyprus in becoming the gas hub and an important geopolitical and commercial player in LNG exports.   

Eraldo, Darko, I agree with your point of view, that Intensive shale gas development in the USA can imply great changes in a global gas market in coming years.   

Dear @Darko, in a meantime, we got the information on HUB on border between Turkey and Greece. Is it Cyprus? As you have said, regional instability will define the future of this project. Competitiveness of  LNG will be the matter of politics, stock market games and many other factors.

One more thing, in terms of energy quality regarding environmental impacts, many expert are in favour of LNG over shale gas.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/op-ed-end-of-south-stream-implications-turkey

In 2012, the average price of imported LNG to Japan was 6 times greater than the cost of natural gas in the USA! Prices in Europe are mid way between the dirt cheap US and ultra expensive Japanese extremes. Following closure of large coal fired power stations, Europe may find itself in a bidding war with the Far East for scarce LNG cargoes this winter. 

Global LNG consumption. Expansion of supply came to an abrupt halt in 2012 compounded by supply and operational problems in existing LNG trains (liquefaction plant)

http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/gas_prices.png

http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/gloabl_lng.png

In the next few decades, it is expected that natural gas the fastest growth in the share of the global energy market and by 2025 global LNG supply will be approximately 10% of the total consumption of gas in the world.

According to experts, it is expected that the production and supply of LNG to grow at a rate of 5% per year (twice as fast as overall demand for gas).

"Global trends show that the era of gas pipelines is over. The future of the energy sector is an open and competitive market, high environmental standards, and the development of renewables...“  Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaitė (World Economic Forum in Davos). 

Davos 2015: Oil chiefs feel chill wind of uncertainty over price !

Dear friends, the link works, just cookies policy!

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9df1c7c0-a18d-11e4-b176-00144feab7de.html#axzz3PeUWxAzN

Few major factors:

1. Market function - Demand and supply

2. Geopolitics -- control

3. Competition among producers

4. Increase in Countries' own resources

Companies, which invested billions of dollars in LNG projects over the past few years, have typically agreed to sell this gas at rates linked to oil prices. The oil-linked pricing means that LNG producers will get much less revenue if they start to deliver their first shipments now. However, if crude oil moves up nearer to its peak of $116 (as was the case some seven months ago), then LNG will be economically more competitive.

LNG exports from US and Canadian terminals are economic in all major markets including

Europe and Asia Pacific, based on hedgeable gas price differentials between North America and buyer markets.

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=21&ved=0CB0QFjAAOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unece.org%2Ffileadmin%2FDAM%2Fenergy%2Fse%2Fpdfs%2Fwpgas%2Fsession%2F1st_Session_Group_Experts_on_gas%2F1_-_Chapter_1_LNG_Study.pdf&ei=3ur_VLLDKMXXasi0gqAF&usg=AFQjCNE-nYuDJTUbynhbN_FbmXOU7fWsFQ

Dear All...

In my country natural gas more competitive if we comparing it with the LNG. I do not why.....?

In the beginning it was believed that LNG technology will lead to equalisaton of natural gas prices in different regions, but it did not happen. Moreover, the price gap between North America, EU and Asia has increased dramatically since 2008.

I was working a bit on LNG arbitrage problems and geopolitics of gas from the perspectives of economic theory, and can recommend you to look at those papers on SSRN:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2110234

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1560563

The LNG Terminal Building Bonanza has Begun

http://www.theenergycollective.com/coley-girouard/2214386/advanced-energy-now-lng-terminal-building-bonanza-has-begun

"In September 2014, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) gave final approval to the Cove Point LNG facility, overruling the objections of environmental groups and bringing to four the number of U.S. export terminals officially approved and under construction. All told, 14 terminals are seeking approval by federal regulators in the United States – on the Gulf Coast, the East Coast, and in the Pacific Northwest. With big potential markets waiting not only across the Pacific, but also in Europe, U.S. oil and gas companies are eager for more export capacity to come online. There are also at least a dozen LNG terminals proposed along the coast of British Columbia.With unrest in Ukraine giving rise to fears of disruptions of natural gas supplies from Russia, which provides 30% of Europe’s natural gas, European governments and companies are scrambling to build new import facilities. Paradoxically, with international supplies limited and Japan, which relies more heavily on imported natural gas than any other country, soaking up much of the available supply at inflated prices, imports to Europe have declined in the last couple of years. The Gate terminal on the North Sea coast near Rotterdam was built with the support of the Dutch government to maintain the Netherlands’ status as a regional gas hub. It is now running at 10% of capacity, according to The Economist."

Considering LNG prices, current differentials between Eastern Asia and the rest of the world are based on the lack of alternatives for the main importers, Japan and South Korea. Increased supplies and a certain arbitration capacity for the Chinese buyers may lead to a structural lowering of the price level on the East Asian markets.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lng-market-trends-and-outlook-22690

"One of the key trends expected to mitigate the effect of the challenges is the increase in LNG exports. Because of the increase in demand for energy, the LNG exports are increasing to fulfill this demand. Producers are seeking to convert existing import terminals into export terminals.

According to the report, one of the key factors driving the market is the growing offshore field development. It is expected that the market will witness a significant increase in the number of new offshore floating LNG projects during the forecast period compared to other shale gas and related exploration projects."

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150630006398/en/Research-Markets-Global-Floating-LNG-Market-2015-2019#.VZOqHBuqp48

"Liquefied Natural Gas – A Global Story"

“In 15 years, the number of countries utilising LNG has tripled. This year alone, Pakistan and Egypt have already joined as a member of new LNG-importing countries. More countries are expected to start importing LNG in the near future"

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/

Data from GIE (Gas Infrastructure Europe) showed the average send-out of gas from LNG Terminals to the Transmission network in 8 EU countries averaged about 19% of capacity in the first half of 2015., up by around 5% year on year.

Capacity utilisation increased in Spain, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Portugal, UK and Netherlands.

Only France had a lower average send out than last year.

LNG terminal deal close?

"A deal between the constructor of Poland’s LNG terminal in Świnoujście, north-western Poland, and the Polish investor is reported to be close.

Once operational the terminal will allow Poland to import up to five billion cubic metres of LNG per year, covering around a third of the country’s demand. This will be one of the largest LNG ports in Central, Eastern and Northern Europe."

http://www.thenews.pl/1/12/Artykul/215419,LNG-terminal-deal-close

Europe's share of global LNG imports rises from 16% to 19% between 2013 and 2035. with an additional 10 Bcf/d of LNG demand .

( BP Energy Outlook 2035.)

U.S. Gas Exports: the Pipe Dream

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-gas-exports-the-pipe-dream-lng-24879

Lithuania Stitches Up New Model to Ease LNGT Running Costs

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lithuania-stitches-up-new-model-to-ease-lngt-running-costs-25238

"Lithuania is scrambling to find new ways to ease the mounting FSRU costs after Norway’s Höegh LNG rejected the government’s proposal to buy the facility located at the Port of Klaipeda.  The Lithuanian Energy Ministry has begun to expedite its Natural Gas Capacity Model (NGCM), which aims to shift more LNG terminal costs from government to consumers.The biggest challenge is selling the surplus of Lithuania’s LNG at market prices. LNG prices have declined as part of the current global commodities rout.“Before only heat producers were supposed to support the LNG terminal and now the burden is to fall on the shoulders of all heat users, even those who do not use gas. I don’t think this is fair,” said Vidmantas Jankauskas, deputy director of Lithuania’s Industrialists Confederation..."

Höegh LNG Turns Down Lithuania’s FSRU Advanced Sale Proposal

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/norway-hoegh-turns-down-lithuanis-proposal-fsru-advance-sale-25006

"Operational costs of an LNG terminal is $189,000 USD per day. For a small country such as Lithuania that lives off an annual budget of $10.1 billion USD (notably, $2.54 billion USD comes from EU coffers), the burden is becoming too big to handle. To ease it, Klaipedos Nafta (Klaipeda Oil), the operator of the FSRU jetty, has asked Norway’s Höegh LNG, owner of the lease, to sell it now and not in 10 years as specified in the contract..."

Qatar well placed to handle increased global LNG supply: QNB

http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.-bus.%20news/256/details/453796/qatar-well-placed-to-handle-increased-global-lng-supply:-qnb

Very informative! Dear Darko, Thanks!

• LNG trade in spot and short-term transactions has increased significantly in the past few years. 
• This development has been fuelled by increased quantities of flexible supplies from Qatari producers and from other global portfolio players competing in the market to take advantage of spot opportunities.  
• LNG gives buyers many options to secure gas supply without necessarily having to commit long term with a specific producer. 

How North America Is Disrupting LNG Pricing (Geoffrey Cann)

http://www.geoffreycann.com/how-north-america-is-disrupting-lng-pricing/

In my opinion, one of the alternatives to move away from such dependency is to construct an LNG terminal in maritime countries and consequently import gas from countries other than Russia. The construction of an LNG terminal in a rather small country is one of the most important investments, which requires precise financing terms.

LNG is an Eastern Asian business and the situation is unlikely to change significantly within the current decade. Asian economies are growing, driving up energy demand. China and India will lead this trend, but smaller developing countries in the region will also see their energy imports grow steadily. Moreover, industrialised economies, namely Japan and South Korea, will continue to rely on massive energy imports, including LNG.

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/lng-market-trends-and-outlook-22690

Dear @Subhash, this is your almost repeated answer of July 1st, 2015!!! Just, cited text is different than in previous post! Both text are from the following part of the text : OUTLOOK TO 2020 AND BEYOND!

As this thread is not so long, you could check previous answers! 

Natural gas, as the cleanest fossil fuel, expected growth of production and consumption and has been recognized as a key energy source for growing world energy needs. Sector LNG follows the trend upwards, as the main driver of globalization of the gas industry. In 20 years, LNG trade has evolved from inter-regional status to the global position and achieve a world growth rate of 10% per year, and is expected to continue to grow but at a slower pace.

U.S. gas exports: the pipe dream

http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=582:us-gas-exports-the-pipe-dream&catid=126:kr&Itemid=395

"The Obama Administration is often accused of being sluggish in granting permits for projects to ship liquefied natural gas (LNG) to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the U.S. Critics claim it has thus denied the U.S. a historical opportunity to become a leading natural gas exporter on par with Russia and Qatar. Whether ten approvals out of forty applications in four years is sluggish or not is a matter of perspective. But the debate on the pace of approvals has masked a much more important fact: American gas is no longer desired abroad, no matter how many permits are granted, and certainly not in Asia – the fastest growing market for gas."

Here is why: LNG prices in Asia are linked to oil prices; when oil prices were high Asian economies were forced to pay exorbitant prices for their imported gas. In the case of Japan where the Fukushima incident led to the shutdown of 54 nuclear reactors, at one point LNG prices reached almost $20 per one million British thermal units (mmbtu)..."

I share your point of view, dear @ Arar.

Dear @Darko, good article : Is US LNG Competitive?

Five possible scenarios were discussed, based on gas cost...

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/thinkcorner/Is%20US%20LNG%20Competitive.pdf

Dear @Darko, I have received this article today. Australia on the path to global LNG leadership says APPEA. What is your opinion about Australia and LNG?

http://www.pacetoday.com.au/news/australia-on-the-path-to-global-lng-leadership-say?mid=873fd4ba0e&utm_source=Cirrus+Media+Newsletters&utm_campaign=34b9b3d9ac-PACE+Newsletter+-+20151021111910&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fe913f1856-34b9b3d9ac-59145617

France secures more LNG from United States

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2015/10/28/France-secures-more-LNG-from-United-States/6281446028438/

French energy company ENGIE signs five-year deal it says is for European energy security."ENGIE is committed to guarantee the supply of its European customers with clean and reliable energy," Pierre Chareyre, the company's executive vice president in charge of LNG, said in a statement. "Importing U.S. LNG will participate to strengthen the security of supply of Europe."

Russia’s Gazprom, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Agree on LNG Cooperation

http://sputniknews.com/business/20151111/1029902205/gazprom-kuwait-petroleum-lng.html#ixzz3rCRmExjk

"Russian energy giant Gazprom and the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation agreed to cooperate in liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied hydrocarbon gases (LHG) and other petrochemical projects, as well as in scientific, technical and investment areas, the Russian company said Tuesday. At present, Gazprom is implementing the Baltic LNG project, a proposed LNG plant construction, in Russia's Leningrad Region oriented at the European and Latin American markets. The plant's capacity will be 10 million tons of LNG per year with the possibility of expansion up to 15 million tons..."

“Joint large-scale activities with our Chinese colleagues develop very fast. We set ourselves ambitious goals and we are confident that they will be achieved.”

http://www.oilandgastechnology.net/pipeline-news/china-russia-ink-western-route-agreement-discuss-shadowy-offshore-accord

First LNG Delivery to Świnoujście Expected by Mid-December

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/first-lng-delivery-swinoujscie-expected-mid-december-26609

Polish authorities expect the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker to arrive to the Polish Świnoujście terminal on December 11 or December 12. "The first supply of liquid natural gas (LNG) to the LNG terminal in Świnoujście will be delivered by Q-Flex vessel Al Nuaman. The LNG tanker was loaded in the Qatari port of Ras Laffan on November 19th 2015 and left for Poland during the night," 

Japan Searches for the Optimal Energy Mix!

"Fossil fuels are the predominant energy sources for Japan. Japan has to import essentially all its oil, LNG (liquefied natural gas) and coal, making security of supply a major concern. Meanwhile, the rapid development of cheap shale oil and gas, as well as efforts to harness solar and wind power, are revolutionising energy around the world. Energy costs and prices are dropping dramatically. Therefore, a major issue for Japan is how to achieve the best mix among fossil, nuclear, and renewable resources to ensure it has secure, stable and cost-competitive energy supplies...

The recent drop in the world price of oil is also substantially benefiting Japan through improved terms of trade. This has also helped reduce LNG prices as LNG sells globally under long-term fixed-price contracts linked to the price of oil..."

http://www.economywatch.com/features/Japan-Searches-for-the-Optimal-Energy-Mix1123.html

The first delivery of LNG from Qatar reached Poland

http://en.polskielng.pl/press-centre/news/news/artykul/201431/

" ... The vessel with first ever delivery of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargo arrived on December 11th, 2015, to the Polish LNG Receiving Terminal in Świnoujście. Qatargas Operating Company Limited delivered the cargo. PGNiG (Polish Oil & Gas) provided its assistance as an intermediary in LNG delivery according to the agreement with the Polskie LNG (Polish LNG) - the receiver of the resource used for commissioning of the facility..."

According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), the LNG MARKET is expected to be oversupplied for some time to come, (due to fewer buyers than sellers) :

“There is also an increasing share of gas available on a short-term basis,” and the “net result over the next few years is expected to be that significant volumes of gas will be looking for a home, at a time when lower oil prices are keeping down the price of oil-indexed gas sold under long-term contracts and when large new LNG plants are scheduled to start operation,” IEA

Cheniere Energy - The U.S. LNG Price Arbitrage Is Alive And Profitable

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3794156-cheniere-energy-the-u-s-lng-price-arbitrage-is-alive-and-profitable

"... With Cheniere Energy starting its Sabine Pass plant, I take a detailed review of the LNG price arbitrage in the U.S.Operating costs for liquefaction, shipping and regasification costs for US LNG landed in Europe are estimated to be $3.59/MMBtu at a Henry Hub Price of $2.00.The same assessment for LNG landed in Asia are estimated to be $4.42/MMBtu.With landed LNG prices in Europe at $5.50/MMBtu, and Asian prices between $6.00 and $8.00/MMBtu the U.S. LNG arbitrage still makes a healthy profit..."

Iran had ambitious plans to produce 70 million tonnes of LNG from the South Pars, North Pars, Ferdowsi and Golshan gas fields by launching six LNG production facilities, thus it signed contracts with European  and Chinese companies for the development of its LNG   projects,   which   were   all   cancelled   by 2012

Study by Kalina Damianova, published by the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security  and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS),

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/pdfs/IranEnergyStrategyPaper7KKD%201.pdf

What is LNG today and how do you see the future of LNG?

This question was addressed to the main speakers of the forthcoming International LNG Congress!

One of many answer: "LNG in inland navigation is a niche market, currently relying on public subsidies and the willingness of companies to incur financial losses. Only if the price for mineral oil will rise again to former levels and the price for LNG equipment will decrease considerably, LNG will be able to leave its niche..."

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-lng-today-how-do-you-see-future-kristina-sabirova?trkInfo=VSRPsearchId%3A577811291454069341383%2CVSRPtargetId%3A6098774955669872640%2CVSRPcmpt%3Aprimary&trk=vsrp_influencer_content_res_name

http://lngcongress.com/

US LNG: What it Means for Europe and Gazprom

"US LNG loadings could begin at Sabine Pass this month and the first vessels arrive in Europe and Asia a fortnight or so later. This has been one of the hottest topics to engage the attention of the trade press, consultants and policy makers for several years.But as the start date approaches, it is unknown what sort of a reception awaits the cargoes in Europe, or even if they will arrive in large numbers at all.US LNG cargoes threaten to bring the biggest change to Europe’s gas portfolio perhaps since the mega-trains at Qatar LNG started up in 2009, but the US-Europe arbitrage opportunity has narrowed to a hair’s breadth. Looking solely at the price difference between the US and Europe, it might not even be profitable to bring LNG to market at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, for example, except for a so-called ‘portfolio player’..."

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/us-lng-what-it-means-for-europe-28020

We had an interesting discussion about it in Poznan at Gasreg21. Please take a look at an interview with prof. Susan Sakmar  as well as interviews with Gerald Stang and Fred Hutchison.  

http://www.gas21.pl/en/news/interview_with_prof-susan_sakmar-video/