De que manera podemos evitar el costo humano en el contexto del COVID-19, ha sabiendas que las medidas y lo que en realidad esta pasando en algunas ciudades ya es el desabastecimiento y el desasosiego de la gente que tiene nulo sus ahorros para enfrentar la crisis, y el Estado en su mejor esfuerzo esta cerca del colapso a nivel global.
Los gobiernos tienen la obligación de enfrentar la crisis desde una perspectiva económica. Los planes que siguen la guía keynesiana no son inflacionarios, solo piense en los US$ 2 trillones aprobados por unanimidad por el Senado de los Estados Unidos. La población debe permanecer en su hogar sin temor a sufrir pérdidas en sus ingresos, que deben ser suministrados por el gobierno. En las próximas semanas, salir de casa puede empeorar el problema de salud y causar decenas de miles de muertes.
Now are needed fine tuning instruments in order to take into account two priorities: (1) to stabilize the health care system and (2) to support the economy by viable policies. According to the first chapter of the World Economic Outlook (IMF, April 14):
“This crisis will need to be dealt with in two phases: a phase of containment and stabilization followed by the recovery phase. In both phases public health and economic policies have crucial roles to play. Quarantines, lockdowns, and social distancing are all critical for slowing transmission, giving the health care system time to handle the surge in demand for its services and buying time for researchers to try to develop therapies and a vaccine. These measures can help avoid an even more severe and protracted slump in activity and set the stage for economic recovery. Increased health care spending is essential to ensure health care systems have adequate capacity and resources. Special dispensations for medical professionals—who are on the frontlines of combating the pandemic—should be considered, including, for example, education allowances for their families or generous survivor benefits. While the economy is shut down, policymakers will need to ensure that people are able to meet their needs and that businesses can pick up once the acute phases of the pandemic pass. This requires substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial measures to maintain the economic ties between workers and firms and lenders and borrowers, keeping intact the economic and financial infrastructure of society. For example, in emerging market and developing economies with large informal sectors, new digital technologies may be used to deliver targeted support. It is encouraging that policymakers in many countries have risen to this unprecedented challenge by swiftly adopting a broad range of measures. Broad-based stimulus and liquidity facilities to reduce systemic stress in the financial system can lift confidence and prevent an even deeper contraction in demand by limiting the amplification of the shock through the financial system and bolstering expectations for the eventual economic recovery. Here, too, the swift and significant actions by several central banks have been critical and have averted an even sharper drop in asset prices and confidence. Of particular importance has been the activation and establishment of swap lines between major central banks to provide international liquidity. The economic landscape will be altered significantly for the duration of the crisis and possibly longer, with greater involvement of government and central banks in the economy.”
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020
BCG, McKinsey, AT Kearney, Deloitte, all recommend an adaptive strategy, “allowing for adjustments as events unfold and new information emerges”. In my opinion, the gradual approach for reopening is the most viable, social distancing being necessary for many months from now. Activities should be restarted taking into account the transmission risks, while states should do whatever is needed “to keep unchanged the economic ties between workers and firms and lenders and borrowers”. For sure, travel-tourism, together with Horeca will continue to be the worst affected sectors of the economy in the long run. These are labour intensive and must be saved at all costs. BCG in its analysis https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/restarting-the-economy-post-covid-19.aspx suggests the reopening in pilot regions, “early restarters” offering valuable information about the epidemic evolution during the restarting the activities on a large scale, of course, respecting the social distancing rules. We will not be able to come back completely to our previous lives in the foreseeable future.
In economics, the aim is to establish equilibria between two forces. Every extreme is bad, if we focus strictly on the economic part, there would be a high mortality rate, but if we do not carry out an isolation, the productive capacity of a country breaks down. A proposal for balance would have been (perhaps not the most appropriate) to require companies and individuals by government decree to take vacation days on a mandatory basis, but one of house confinement. Time that allows the government to carry out COVID tests in households (on a sampling basis), delivery of masks and protective suits to the population (or the most vulnerable sectors). When the 15-day period ends, the use of protection for the population is mandatory with very strong sanctions in case of non-compliance, which can be economic, even those of not going anywhere without those protections and rules of social distancing.
Ambos temas están relacionados, no pueden resolverse de manera separada, deben tratarse en conjunto. Por lo tanto, se requiere de la participación del gobierno como ente articulador de las necesidades.
