Hello everyone,
I am working on analysis of PV Solar penetration on power system stability. I want to know about what probability distribution function does the Solar forecast error follow? The time interval of interest for me is 1 hour.
Cheers
Sam
It is a great question. You want to know the energy intensity, since it is changing during the day by the exposure. First I suggest to understand the main processes:
- Seasons, sunrise, increasing energy level, sundown. When the electricity production starts and finishes. How it would change below clear sky,
- demand curve,
- price curve,
- export/import during the day,
- base production and base load,
- PV capacity.
In that way, you will know better what the hourly forecast error means in energy and money terms (the significance is different hour by hour. For instance, there is zero error at night, it is constant).
After that, you can use the probability distribution of the daily weather forecasts (huge literature) since your short term energy intensity forecast error distribution won't differ. I understand that you consider the hourly energy intensity forecast, but they are similar natural phenomena, so the error distribution will be approximately the same (more or less clouds).
It is a great question. You want to know the energy intensity, since it is changing during the day by the exposure. First I suggest to understand the main processes:
- Seasons, sunrise, increasing energy level, sundown. When the electricity production starts and finishes. How it would change below clear sky,
- demand curve,
- price curve,
- export/import during the day,
- base production and base load,
- PV capacity.
In that way, you will know better what the hourly forecast error means in energy and money terms (the significance is different hour by hour. For instance, there is zero error at night, it is constant).
After that, you can use the probability distribution of the daily weather forecasts (huge literature) since your short term energy intensity forecast error distribution won't differ. I understand that you consider the hourly energy intensity forecast, but they are similar natural phenomena, so the error distribution will be approximately the same (more or less clouds).
Hello Samundra,
The following article is among the relevant literature that covers shorter durations. It provides autocorrelation and PDFs for 5 min.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0038092X92901554
Here is real data with 1 hour resolution
http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_tools/en/tools.html
-> Hourly Data (every day of 2007 - 2016)
Generally, normal distribution function is used for probability distribution for short term solar forecast error?
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Physical Sciences
- Energy
- Energy-Generating Resources
- Renewable Energy