Apart from the physical hit, the novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has hit economies to a large extent. Some experts are looking at this shock as a new global financial crunch (leading to depression). What do you think of the magnitude of the economic damage from this shock to your respective countries and the whole world?
Please go through the following RG links.
Article Economic Impacts of Wuhan 2019‐nCoV on China and the World
Article The Impact of "Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia" on Global Value Chain
Preprint Impact of Coronavirus on the Global Economy
Please also take a look at this link.
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/571536/adb-brief-128-economic-impact-covid19-developing-asia.pdf
Ba Bakh Ismail Aliyu Danmaraya Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq Fakhar Shahzad
Ghulam Muhammad Qamri Muhammad Saqib Irshad Imran Khan Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau Muhammad Haseeb Qasim Ali Nisar Ataul Karim Patwary Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad Usman Khalid
According to India today Corona Virus can hit Pakistan economy with estimated loses of 5 billion Dollar Quoting Asian Development Bank.
Raja Khurram Javed I appreciate if you may please share the link.
Please take a look at the link below.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/coronavirus-hits-pakistan-prompts-national-emergency-1650510-2020-02-27
The USA has known for two years,what the implications of the virus is going to be if it went out of control--In 2018, the John Hopkins Center for Health Security ran a simulation called "Parainfluenza Clade X" to determine what the potential would be of a virus pandemic, and they concluded: "...twenty months 150 million people worldwide--two percent of the global population--have died."
"...The global economy has collapsed under the strain, with the Dow Jones average down 90 percent. U.S. GDP down 50 percent, and unemployment at 20 percent. Washington is barely functioning--the president and vice president are both ill, one one-third of Congress is dead or incapacitated."
People involved in that simulation were Tom Daschle (former leader of US Senate), Dr. Julie Gerberding (former head CDC), Jim Talen (former Missouri senator)--Why are all of these people keeping quiet right now, and not telling us what they saw in the global virus pandemic simulation only two years ago, and helping lead us out of this mess, with some new simulations???!!!
This simulation information and attendee list is from pages 201-203 of the Bryan Walsh book, "END, A Brief Guide to the End of the World: Asteroids, Supervolcanoes, Rogue Robots, and more", published in 2019.
Details about the John Hopkins "CLADE X" exercise can be read at
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html
About the virus-curve--California is double its cases every three days, but in order for the curve to bend, the number of days between doubling must be 30 more more, which means we are going to need a total China-style quarantine lockdown. Everyone for their own country, should track the number of days to for the number of cases to double, and when you get 30 or more, that is very good! If fewer than 30 days, need to do more
With the simple monitoring of the number of days for the doubling of new cases, can have everyone on the planet become the judges of the effectiveness of their own country's methods. And if the current methods are failing, as they are here in the USA, insist that more stringent methods are employed immediately, to slam the brakes on the virus.
That is the only weakness that the virus has--we watch and monitor and change our behaviors so we do not become prey.
In China, starting when they had about 1,200 cases on January 24--The doubling rate was every two days, then one day, 2 days, 3 days, 5 days, 8 days, then the doubling stopped on February 15, and since then less than a 10% increase, because they were applying the brakes all along, then slammed on the brakes in late February to early March. I am confident we can all do that too, slam on the brakes in only 3 weeks, and stop the doubling of the new cases?
COVID-19 has unleashed an unprecedented crisis, impacting all segments of the population, all sectors of the economy, and all areas of the world. It has also exposed growing inequalities in our societies, further exacerbating existing disparities within and among countries.
The new United Nations SDG report highlights how the pandemic is slowing progress on the global goals and reversing decades of progress on poverty, healthcare and education, leaving the most vulnerable further behind.
UNDP
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs
The coronavirus pandemic has already claimed over half a million lives across the world, with case numbers continuing to rise. Global cases are more than 13.9 M & USA has more than 3.7 M cases. Brazil tops 2 M cases and India now has the third highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. EU forecasts deeper recession than previously expected. It’s like a hidden tsunami to global economy. It hampers food production, food processing and even the storage of food. Developed countries like USA or UK can manage but it will be too difficult for poor and low income countries to cope up with this global crisis.
Data source: 17 July, CNN
The USA is tracking to have 9 million cases by November election day... and as the cases here go up, Trumps numbers are in free fall in the opposite direction at https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2020/07/17/trumps-campaign-is-in-freefall-with-covid-19-on-voters-minds/
Economically the USA is at a tipping point right now---
---We are expecting a complete market collapse... for several reasons. Bear market, then the bear dies of starvation, is a better viewpoint?
1.) Federal government on-and-off the books debt today is $25 trillion... and the debt increasing because of the pandemic at about one trillion more a month.
2.) Stock prices are going up instead of down... while an underlying economic depression is occurring and the P/E ratios in the insane-range as they were for the tech stocks before the DOT COM bust 20 years ago----
Papa Johns Pizza P/E = 4,600, Marriott Vacations = 2,900, Cracker Barrel Store = 468, Burlington Stores = 275, Etsy = 169, etc. Do you see a pattern, these companies are not making money, instead their stocks have very inflated value. Similar to the Dutch Tulip Bulb craze in 1634-1637 where a single bulbs could be worth $750,000?
4.) Banks know they are selling or have sold mortgage bonds... that are about to become worthless, when the people holding those mortgages have been out of work and not paying for months? So a similar collapse will occur in the market as it did a little over a decade ago. See Wall Street Jounral article https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-not-a-normal-recession-banks-ready-for-wave-of-coronavirus-defaults-11594746008
5.) Muni-bonds will become worthless... because the tax revenue that repay those bonds does not exist, and will not exist for a long time.
6.) Federal bonds are very close to worthless right now... when the interest rate on a 10 year T-bill collapsed a few months ago at 0.62%, whereas between 2017 and earlier this year, ranged between 2.4% and 3.2%.
7.) Federal government instead of selling its bonds on the open market... have been selling them back to themselves, at the tune of trillions of dollars. That means in effect, in the USA at least, capitalism is dead, when you manipulate the open market, and start being the buyer of your own bonds, just to keep from collapsing?
If we look at this virus as an individual country-wide stress test… then I think we can get our minds around the pandemic and stamp it out wherever it flares up. Or maybe it could be seen like an “Ink-blot” Rorschach test--what does the leader of each country see, when confronted with the virus and how do they react to the virus?
1.) PURELY MEDICAL - The purely medical and non-political response to the pandemic... from China and New Zealand--to concentrate on eradicating a new virus that nobody has immunity and stamp it out quickly, in only three weeks.
2.) POLITICAL ENEMY- Then, we have the politicians who view the virus as a political enemy, plus that even talking about Covid is a plot from the opposition, and that will need to divert funds from their military budgets into health care, like USA and Russia.
3.) PARANOID reactions... of Trump and his son Eric---that Covid is a plot hatched by the Chinese AND the Democrats to unseat Trump? Eric Trump said in May that the Covid is a plot to stop his father from holding rallies, and earlier in February, Trump said Covid was a hoax and kept insisting that his administration was “magnificently organized” and “totally prepared" to address the virus.
4.) MILITARY FUNDS sucking up the money needed for the Covid fight...Unfortunately, countries that are so bankrupt already, that also have massive military budgets, still no discussions of shifting money from military budgets to take care of the people, even six months into the pandemic? Several countries already in massive debt and also with massive military budgets instead diverting funds for Covid eradication, have been racing to be in the highest number of Covid cases--
#1 USA $25 trillion debt with 3.9 million cases… and $732 billion military budget.Heading towards 9 million Covid cases by Election Day in November.
#2 Brazil $1.4 trillion debt with 2.1 million cases… and $27 billion military budget.
#3 India $2.2 trillion debt with 1.1 million cases...and $71 billion military budget with the Covid cases likely doubling every 21 days starting right now—Maybe 16 million cases by mid-September and the entire country sick by end of December?
5.) The ERROR of HERD IMMUNITY without a vaccine!--What crazy political thought this concept up--which only works medically when a very large percentage of your people get vaccinated, you NEVER want "herd immunity" to get established by having your entire country get sick, like the UK and Sweden's original plans were? For example produce herd immunity for measles, you need 92-95% of your country's population to get vaccinated.
So, the readers of these answers... could probably describe other pathological-political conditions in various countries, keeping their leaders from getting the Covid eradicated and allowing the continued suffering of their people?
The Covid is like a worldwide psychological experiment and psychological and economic stress-test...--Can leaders give up their war-spending pathologies, and their spending on death, and make the change fast enough, so that their people can get healthy? Or are leaders who are in power currently, not psychologically up to the challenge?