Although in electronic media many predictions about COVID-19 abound, is there a scientific prediction when the this pandemic would die down? Would this time come when it has affected 50-70% of the world population?
Can epidemiologists give a timeline?
I think no one is sure about when this pandemic end and how much world population would be affected. However, Scientists at University of Washington have been doing great job in predicting the mortality and health care demand in USA. Dear i recommend you to follow the update from Institute of Health Metrics at the University of Washington.
Currently, the cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19 ) are increasing globally. In my opinion, it seems difficult to predict a timeline when this pandemic will be stopped.
Herd immunity threshold (HIT) of COVID-19 is 29 to 74% that means when 29-74% of the population becomes immune ( through infection/ vaccination, as there is no vaccination against COVID-19, here only through infection) the disease may no longer persist in the population.
This was forwarded to me via social media. I would love to credit the author but I do not know who it is. It encapsulates the current understanding of Covid-19 so well that I thought everyone would enjoy reading it…
For those of you who are still confused, these are the rules for covid 19:
1. Basically, you can't leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster.
6. Gloves won't help, but they can still help.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it's important to GO OUT.
8. There is no shortage of groceries in the supermarket, but there are many things missing when you go there in the evening, but not in the morning. Sometimes.
9. The virus has no effect on children except those it affects.
10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there…
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my God.
12. In order not to get sick, you have to eat well and exercise, but eat whatever you have on hand because it's better not to go out, well, but no…
13. It's better to get some fresh air, but you get looked at very wrong when you get some fresh air, and most importantly, you don't go to parks or walk. But don’t sit down, except that you can do that now if you are old, but not for too long or if you are pregnant (but not too old).
14. You can't go to retirement homes, but you have to take care of the elderly and bring them food and medication.
15. If you are sick, you can't go out, but you can go to the pharmacy.
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn't wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too?
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview starts with " I don't want to trigger panic, but…"
18. You can't see your older mother or grandmother, but you can take a taxi and meet an older taxi driver.
19. You can walk around with a friend but not with your family if they don't live under the same roof.
20. You are safe if you maintain the appropriate social distance, but you can’t go out with friends or strangers at the safe social distance.
21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn't say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily.
22. The virus stays in the air - well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe.
23. We count the number of deaths but we don't know how many people are infected as we have only tested so far those who were "almost dead" to find out if that's what they will die of…
24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications). Orange man bad.
25. We should stay locked up until the virus disappears, but it will only disappear if we achieve collective immunity, so when it circulates… but wait...we must no longer be locked up for that?
Probably no end. Like Common Cold or Flu. Need vaccination every two years most likely. Immunity from infection is temporary, also probably from vaccination. So herd-immunity not possible. Also, natural herd-immunity is potentially dangerous, with complications and side-effects. But, the good news, is, when the vaccine is given then we can get back to "normal."
Dear Dr Ordog,
I agree with you, although I believe that COVID-19 vaccine will be needed more frequently in a year compared with influenza vaccine.
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