In the attached file, I am showing the probabilistic distribution of PSH (peak sun hour) for a typical November month. The data was obtained using a probabilistic model for the historic data (from a meteorological service). In that case, two peaks are observed in the density distribution of the data. Typical I heard about a weibull distribution for PSH, but in this cases this model is not appropriate. I think that this behavior is due to the abrupt changes between cloudly days and clear or semi-clear days. Do exist any publication with similar data in the literature? Thanks in advance.
Dear Miguel
It is extremely important that you visit this website and study the content, especially the graphs as it provides scientific evidence around solar radiation predictions
http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChangeBW.htm
This may help you strategically with your probabilistic modeling.
Gerro
it is a case where you can use mixture of two appropriate probability distributions
Dear Prof. Dr. Martínez,
If you refer to "peak sun hour" as the global solar radiation's maximum value G at the Zenith; the answer is yes, there is some theory how to calculate it. There is a good book that explains the basis very well: Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes from Duffie & Beckman.
This book is an excellent reference for learning those concepts.
Please contact me offline, if you would like to have a chat concerning this fascinating topic.
Best, Yarú
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