It is assumed that after a decrease in atmospheric pressure in the north of Australia, air movements occur along the equator. As a result of the currents that have arisen, cold water appears at the equator. It is believed that this further leads to climate change in some regions.
Quote from our monograph. "It has been determined that La Niña (a decrease in water temperature in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean) occurs in all oceans at the same time. Cold water zones increase and decrease in length every year. We emphasize that this process occurs in the equatorial zone, where there are no seasons, but changes in water temperature are formed over the course of the year. The width of the zone of water temperature decrease annually reaches its maximum in August. It moves from east to west. That is, in the absence of obvious reasons, a clear intra-annual variability of sea water temperature in the equatorial zone of the World Ocean was found." Anomalies of cold water at the equator in August are shown on the map.
Contrary to the ENSO scheme, cold water at the equator appears independently of atmospheric processes and ocean currents. Look at the upwelling map at the equator. Upwelling at the equator is generated by centrifugal forces. Centrifugal forces are maximum in August. Need comments?
Maps from the INTERNET
Let's now think about how centrifugal forces generate changes in regional climates without affecting the global climate.
Could this be a subject for discussion?
Sorry for the late reply, but yes, what you have highlighted is a critical insight. Centrifugal forces along with density changes have a seasonal variation. Any upwelling of subsurface waters must be a combination of the difference in densities between the layer above and below the thermocline and external forces. In freshwater lakes this can happen twice a year, in spring and fall. Something similar to overturning has to occur in the ocean and is likely related to the ENSO behavior.
If one considers the equatorial crossings of the sun and moon at a specific time of year, the repeat period comes out to be 3.8 years. This is the same period of El Nino repeat cycles averaged over 100 years. I have a more detailed fluid dynamics formulation published in 2018 but will be willing to discuss this idea more thoroughly here as the hypothesis has not been given much attention.
Dear Paul Pukite,
El Niño was originally recorded off the coast of Peru. In December, in the arid zone between the Pacific Ocean and the Andes Mountains, episodic unexpected showers began. At the same time, hydrogen sulfide enters the photic zone from the ocean depths. As a result, the fish die. This is information for understanding the physics of the process. Why is drought off the coast of Peru a common climatic norm? The simple answer is the speed of rotation of the earth is 1500 km/h. Off the coast of Peru and Namibia, water lags behind the Earth's rotation and upwelling is initiated. Cold waters come to the surface. If the wind from the cold ocean comes to the hot land, there will never be rain. But if upwelling does not form, then the arid climate will change to a humid one.
What process forms upwelling - the speed of the Earth's rotation. If the rotation speed becomes less, the drought will be replaced by a flood.
This is my simplification.
That's referred to as sloshing. The rotation speed of the Earth is constant apart from small changes due to tidal forces -- if the Earth slows down slightly, the water will tend to stay in motion and thus piling up more in the western Pacific, and the converse if it speeds up. This is all precisely measured since 1962, and can be used to calibrate effective tidal forces prior to that time. Through the process of cross-validation one can determine if the ENSO behavior can be predicted as well as conventional tides.
What you are describing I think is intuitive, and I have published a mathematical model related to this understanding in 2018. A typical model fit shown. Unfortunately, few scientists have shown interest. Perhaps we can gather some enthusiasm here.
Look at the graph of changes in the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation in 1997-1999. During El Niño, the January maximum of the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation was not recorded. https://hpiers.obspm.fr/ During these months, the water in the Pacific Ocean has become less behind the rotation of the solid shell of the earth. The upwelling has stopped. The climate of Peru has changed. The fish died of starvation. There were many different anomalies in 1998. See my discussions on this topic. Perhaps these changes were formed as a result of the comet crossing the ecliptic plane of the solar system https://fishki.net/2967355-kometa-hejla-boppa.html
The question is acute. I believe that El Niño is a process that relies on cause and effect. Almost all scientists do not think so.
Here is a quote from my monograph.
"The existing scientific level of diagnosis and forecasting of trends in the formation of regional climate changes based on the monitoring of the El Niño and La Niño phenomena (SOI phase) is based on the empirical generalization of atmospheric pressure data observations, that is, it has no theoretical justification. Using the differences in atmospheric pressure values in different geographical areas, it is often possible to obtain statistically significant relationships with climate changes in different regions of the globe.Thus, in the absence of clear causal relationships, changes in atmospheric pressure are given the status of predictors of climate change.
The false principle of predicting the possibility of the activation of predictors in the absence of cause-and-effect relationships was called teleconnection. Thus, in our opinion, Edward Lorenz committed a scientific crime when he recognized this principle as physical. This is the so-called "butterfly effect": "a butterfly flapping its wings in Iowa can cause an avalanche of effects that can reach its highest point during the rainy season in Indonesia." Hereby, Edward Lorenz showed that it is not necessary to have clear cause-and-effect relationships between predictors and consequences, that it is possible not to recognize the laws of physics and formal logic. From this it follows that the laws of physics do not work deterministically, but act according to probabilistic principles, which is absurd, in the extreme case - unscientific. In fact, the climate system, like any other natural system, exists and develops according to cause and effect patterns described by the laws of physics. Therefore, the application of chaotic principles (Lorentz attractors) to the climate system, which reject the presence of cause-and-effect relationships in natural processes, cannot formally be considered a scientific approach."
I agree that unquestioned belief in Edward Lorenz likely slowed progress in understanding natural processes that depend on fluid dynamics. Researchers were told there was no point in modeling long-term behavior because of the butterfly effect. Yet it is well known that a strong external force will override intrinsic chaotic limit cycles, see the work of G.V. Osipov "Synchronization in Oscillatory Networks".
No doubt the data collected at https://hpiers.obspm.fr/ holds the key to synchronizing ENSO cycles.
Other forums to discuss
https://github.com/pukpr/GeoEnergyMath/wiki
https://github.com/orgs/azimuth-project/discussions/1
https://geoenergymath.com/2023/05/14/a-digital-twin-of-enso/
I recommend watching my presentation "Atmospheric circulation indices SOI Problems and Solutions.ppt" . English translation is missing. I regret.
One slide translated: "For the analysis, the time series of the angular velocity of rotation of the Earth was involved. Variations in the angular velocity of rotation of the Earth have two-week and lunar, annual cycles. If, according to our calculations, an annual harmonic with an amplitude of 1.0 ms affects July upwellings, then why can't a semilunar cycle with an amplitude of 0.7 ms also affect the upwelling"
Very good!
short note here:
https://pukite.substack.com/p/el-nino-model
Sometimes the inertia of the system prevents short cycles from being realized. Could this be applicable to this situation?
What do you think is the shortest cycle? The "window" or time interval for triggering must not be much larger than a week for the Mf (13.66d) to not be averaged away.
What do you think is the shortest cycle?
?????
In my monograph (in the third volume of the book "A New Paradigm of Accumulative Relief Formation in Shallow Areas of Oceans and Seas"), it is shown that the extrema of the annual harmonic of equatorial upwellings coincide with changes in the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. The rotational maximum appears first (this is the reason). After 19 days, the maximum intensity of upwelling occurs (this is a consequence).
I investigated the statistical relationship between the intensity of atmospheric precipitation in the equatorial zone and the two-week harmonic of the angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. Monograph pages 136-137. It rains during the two-week maxima of the Earth's rotation rate.
The ocean has a large inertia, but the speed of the current from west to east decreases with a period of 7 days (page 134).
Volume 3. Previously unknown aspects of the formation of climate, weather, including natural hazards
Dear Paul Pukite,
Attached is the third volume.
Problem - page numbers have changed.
The key to employing LOD=length-of-day variations is to take dLOD/dt since it equates more to a torque or acceleration on the thermocline upwelling. The quantitative mapping can be extremely high resolution because the data is good quality and recorded on a daily basis since 1962
Was given a link to this presentation, on deep degassing of the Earth
https://imgur.com/a/o0ZEkQW
and something perhaps related https://theethicalskeptic.com/2020/02/16/the-climate-change-alternative-we-ignore-to-our-peril/
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