Climate change is slowly impacting species populations around the world, more pronounced in marine waters. On the other hand, rapid origin of new species through quicker adaptation to climate change of existing population is happening. Unless species are rapidly able to adapt there is likely to be a sharp increase in extinction rates as opined by International Institute for Environment and Development (IEED).
True, climatic change has in the past increased the rates observed for both processes. Typically, rapid climatic change results in more extinction than speciation, and it's the other way round if it's nice and slow. The current one is probably not particularly rapid in the bigger picture, but its effects are, at least on land, massively compounded by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. So I think there is little doubt extinction will be more prevalent there. Your question refers primarily to marine environments. Climatic bands are probably even more important in the sea in defining species ranges, but how often this can actually lead to range fragmentation is another matter, as marine organisms are often better dispersed by means of pelagic larvae. My guess is that even here extinction will occur more frequently, but I am looking forward to reading other thoughts on the topic.
Thank you for comments. Looking forward for others views on this topic
This paper may interest you...
Contemporary evolution meets conservation biology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 18:2 pages 94-101. 2003.
by Craig A. Stockwell, Andrew P. Hendry and Michael T. Kinnison
Cheers,
JP
This small paper by Craig et al. highlighted the linkage between conservation biology and evolutionary theory. As opined by the author contemporary evolution is of great concern for intensively managed species, as management reduce their fitness in native habitats. In the current conservation regime, one should not ignore the perspectives of contemporary evolution.
On land, episodes of climatic change (for example in the Pleistocene) cause some extinctions and start speciation by isolating previously continuous populations. In the short term, the extinctions will predominate because not enough time has elapsed for the now isolated populations to diverge.
As said by Serban, the effects of present climate change are complicated because of the fragmentation of habitats by us. What might have been a straightforward move as climate and habitats change is made more difficult.
Dear Cameron,
I endorse your statement that extinctions will predominate because not enough time has elapsed for the now isolated populations to diverge.
Thank you
In the northern hemisphere and also at the sides of higher mountains many species move to colder areas, if the climate becomes too warm - or as insects and plants from the mediterranian, follow the heating to inhabit northern countries.
Invaders bring often troubles or deceases to their new habitats.
In my opinion, it is very important and well-timed question. At present, I write a detailed paper on this subject. I think that our PFO-CFO Theory of Solar System Formation contains the answer to this question. Today, I address you to our last publications of 2015-2013, where this theory is presented in its today form (the first publications relate to 2009). These works are available in my and Elena Kadyshevich pages at the ResearchGate site.
It may appear that climate change is generating more speciation than extinction because there are many case studies involving extant species (e.g., Buckup & Melo, 2005), but it is likely that extinction (species selection) exceeds speciation under climate chance pressure. Studies about extinction may be underepresented just because the species involved in extinction are rare or even gone without notice.
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