We now know that the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic on Covid-19 on the global economy is large. In some countries, the level of economic growth dropped sharply in the months March - June 2020 and there was a high probability of potential recession of the national economy. Even if the pandemic would expire immediately, it was a period of significant recession characterized by a decrease in production, offered services (e.g. tourism, gastronomy, hospitality, etc.), consumption, investments in many branches and sectors of the economy, and an increase in unemployment, a decrease in income, and tax revenues in the financial system states can last for longer. Whether this period will be only a few months or rather a few quarters in individual countries is determined not only by the scale of development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic, but also by many other secondary factors. These factors primarily include a different sectoral structure of the economies of individual countries. For example, in countries where tourism, hospitality, catering and other services related to tourism constitute a significant part of the national economy and generate a relatively large share of GDP, the crisis that is now beginning may be much deeper and longer lasting. how long the economic crisis will last is also determined mainly by several other factors, such as the significantly different state of state finances, public debt, budget deficit in the central budget of the state and local government units as well as in other aspects of the state public finance system. In addition, significant differentiation of the anti-crisis anti-pandemic and sanitary security standards currently used is also important. These standards are similar in many issues, but in specific issues there are significant differences, e.g. in the instruments used to limit the pandemic development rate, e.g. types of stores, services, production processes, etc., whose functioning has been temporarily disabled or replaced with remote customer service via the Internet in those economic and logistical processes where this is possible. In addition, it is also particularly important to diversify the financial scale and types of intervention instruments used, anti-crisis socio-economic policy, including fiscal policy coordinated by the Ministry of Finance and monetary policy of central banking. All of the above-mentioned factors will significantly determine in the following months the issue of time differentiation of the duration of the economic crisis in individual countries in the future, so whether this crisis will last only a few months or several years. In view of the above, the anti-crisis instruments of intervention in socio-economic, budgetary, fiscal, monetary, etc. policies should significantly reduce the scale of the economic downturn by activating entrepreneurship and maintaining the continuity of operations of many business entities and institutions. However, the risk of entrepreneurial decline in individual countries is still more or less high. Therefore, there is a need to measure the risk of entrepreneurship decline caused by the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease). It is therefore important to develop a universal, international model of the process of managing the risk of entrepreneurship decline and potential development of the economic downturn caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic. It is therefore necessary to develop a universal risk management model for the decline of entrepreneurship and the economic downturn by defining and describing factors related to individual stages of the risk management process, i.e. identifying specific types of risk, risk analysis, risk quantification, launching specific instruments to secure a given organization against risk materialization, etc. the developed model of managing the risk of entrepreneurship decline and the economic downturn could be used in different countries to make the results of analyzes comparable internationally, so it is necessary to develop a universal model based on determinants and risk factors occurring in different countries.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

One of the most prominent policies that countries take to protect people from the threat of a pandemic is to quarantine the areas where the epidemic is spreading. And also the work of curfews and the closure of borders between countries ..etc

Based on actual and expected positive cases and its impact on the economy. The government imposes curfews and lockdown. However, these measures adversely affect economic activities and growth rates. The government should strike a balance between both. The critical aspect is that citizens and residents of the country must follow guidelines, social distancing, and take all the precautions to minimize the spread of COVID-19.

Thank you so much

I special thanks to Dariusz Prokopowicz, you gave a insightful dose on the issue and also thanks to others who gave their suggestions.

A pandemic was not an emerging (or new) risk, in that it had been recognized as a risk for some time and can be found on risk registers in governments and businesses (i.e. they identified it, assessed it and put in place measures to address it - whether adequately is a different question). The interesting point raised (as I read the question, and I hope I am understanding this right) is whether entrepreneurs thought about it as a risk to their activities and planned for it.

My thoughts would be that the smaller the organisation the less likely it is that they would have formally thought specifically about a pandemic and how they would manage the risk were it to happen (or if they just accepted the risk without any special plans). If you see entrepreneurs as being the leaders of smaller businesses/operations then the same could be true for them. Those with longer experience and more at risk would, in my view, be those who are more likely to consider the risk of such major external events outside their control on their investments and activities.

There is work going on to look at emerging risks, e.g. with new ISO guidance being developed. This may help drive getting entrepreneurs (and others) to think more widely about the risks they are exposed to.

I would see a learning from the current situation as being the importance of "resilience" to the effects of, and "agility" in response, to such events. I would expect the entrepreneurs to be strong on the latter.

I hope these thoughts are useful.

Very much useful thoughts.